RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 1:47 PM, rjtysinger said: Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! Expand You're not reading well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:19 PM, forecasterjack said: Thinking out loud. If that next wave in the C ATL can develop enough, could it deliver a blow to the WAR significant enough to let Irma come east? ECMWF H5 data free from weather.us: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170910-1200z.html can get vorticity, RH, winds, heights for all pressure levels via menus left of image Expand Doubtful.. much better chance the trough pulls out a bit slower like the models were showing earlier. The quicker exit per the models is what's giving her more westward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:15 PM, bluewave said: Looks like this has a good shot to end the record. 0 hurricane landfalls along US East Coast during September since Jeanne (2004). Longest period on record w/ 0 EC Sept. hurricanes. 7:30 AM - 3 Sep 2017 Expand Sure if you don't count New Jersey as east coast, many consider it New England...but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:34 PM, OUGrad05 said: Sure if you don't count New Jersey as east coast, many consider it New England...but still.... Expand I know that Sandy was technically extra-tropical at landfall, but the affects were certainly similar to a strong cat 1 or cat 2 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:34 PM, OUGrad05 said: Sure if you don't count New Jersey as east coast, many consider it New England...but still.... Expand Sandy hit in October. Bluewave was talking about September, only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:19 PM, forecasterjack said: Thinking out loud. If that next wave in the C ATL can develop enough, could it deliver a blow to the WAR significant enough to let Irma come east? ECMWF H5 data free from weather.us: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170910-1200z.html can get vorticity, RH, winds, heights for all pressure levels via menus left of image Expand That would be nice, fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:35 PM, donsutherland1 said: Sandy hit in October. Bluewave was talking about September, only. Expand Oh, you're right, I thought it was Sept 28th, I was off by a month...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:36 PM, OUGrad05 said: Oh, you're right, I thought it was Sept 28th, I was off by a month...my bad. Expand No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 1:44 PM, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! Expand I am about as much as a novice at this as anyone on the board but even I know enough not to declare NC out of the woods at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 12:44 PM, Isotherm said: Expand Experiencing Donna what was most interesting was the strength of the winds just WEST of the center. Was in school n NJ and trees were uprooted left and right. OT but an epic winter followed. Big year, Mazeroski's HR to send us Yankee fans home crying, Donna, JFK election, epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 I wouldn't be calling the Carolinas out of the threat area just yet, this could have very well been an over correction West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 No way can you call North Carolina out, I think the GFS is nonsense at this point and would put more faith in the Euro. But both may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 All bets are off until the G-IV can get that ridge sampled imho. Link to the folks in the islands. They've been ramping up preparations for the last 48 hours. I enjoy the webmasters write ups. http://stormcarib.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Wow, just got around to pulling down the models, the GFS solution at 06Z is LOL...hard to take anything seriously when it has strong interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, no weakening, then bottom drops out as it cross back toward FL and remains hurricane strength all the way through GA? :rofl: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It is important to remind users that Cuba's high mountains are on the SE side, not the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:57 PM, OUGrad05 said: Wow, just got around to pulling down the models, the GFS solution at 06Z is LOL...hard to take anything seriously when it has strong interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, no weakening, then bottom drops out as it cross back toward FL and remains hurricane strength all the way through GA? :rofl: Expand Yeah, total joke. I am trying to remember what year it was but I remember a strong Hurricane doing a dance with all of Cuba like the GFS is showing and it came out barely a tropical storm into the gulf and never was the same again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 3:00 PM, MattPetrulli said: It is important to remind users that Cuba's high mountains are on the SE side, not the northern side. Expand That's a very minor point TBH. Those mountains cause significant disruption to storms all the time and given the projected center location on the GFS there's no way they don't impact the storm. GFS shows landfall as a cat4/5 (5 judging from pressure) and stays that way 920mb as it departs. That's a ridiculous solution...I guess I could be proven wrong by the storm but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Boy, the last few frames on the visible really show a good outward expansion in the northeast quadrant, which has been struggling for several days. This thing looks like it is ready to take off. Interesting times coming up in the days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richatdjacks Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 A few days ago none of us were sure if Cuba would even be a factor, that has changed. Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 First time since 04-05 that Cuba has a shot of being impacted by a major hurricane 2 years in a row. Matthew passed over the eastern tip of Cuba last October. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 NHC 11:00 am update cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:40 PM, bigtenfan said: I am about as much as a novice at this as anyone on the board but even I know enough not to declare NC out of the woods at this point. Expand I think this could be applied to 95%> of the people here. On another note I must say I am impressed by Irma strengthening since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 1:47 PM, rjtysinger said: Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! Expand The strongest storm to hit the US (Labor Day storm) took out Islamorada and tracked up through central NC. Donna took out Marathon and tracked up through E NC. It may not be a major if/when it gets here, but it can still do flooding and wind damage in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Based on the current D5 forecast south of the Bahamas and a D2 forecast right through the heart of the Hebert box I'd say the odds of OTS have been substantially reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:46 PM, weathafella said: Experiencing Donna what was most interesting was the strength of the winds just WEST of the center. Was in school n NJ and trees were uprooted left and right. OT but an epic winter followed. Big year, Mazeroski's HR to send us Yankee fans home crying, Donna, JFK election, epic winter. Expand I was just starting the 9th grade in Brooklyn Tech. I remember the wide stairs going up into Fort Green Park disappearing and turning into a raging Rapids. It must have been a fast mover, by late that afternoon the sun was out and there was a magnificent rainbow stretched across the Brooklyn sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 In the near term the Northern islands are really in for it if the current 72 hour NHC track verifies. I don't think they've experienced a storm this strong in over 20 years, since Luis in '95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS a tad north with Irma at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Still such a small storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 2:46 PM, weathafella said: Experiencing Donna what was most interesting was the strength of the winds just WEST of the center. Was in school n NJ and trees were uprooted left and right. OT but an epic winter followed. Big year, Mazeroski's HR to send us Yankee fans home crying, Donna, JFK election, epic winter. Expand It's fun to reminisce Grandpa but let's do it in the banter thread. I'll even tell you about my Connie/Dianne experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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