NCWeSU Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:18 AM, NJwx85 said: It barely touched Cuba this run and if the core stays offshore it won't matter much for a cat 4-5. Expand There is some high terrain in central Cuba that would impact that circulation significantly, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:18 AM, LandofLincoln said: It basically does stall out there around 156. Expand For a couple hours if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 wow, comes north .. homestead, Miami, FFL would be in big trouble in that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Comes in right over the Everglades too, which is almost all water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Thats some absurd strengthening. From 927 to 884 in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:20 AM, NCWeSU said: There is some high terrain in central Cuba that would impact that circulation significantly, imo. Expand It isn't that high, I posted a topographic map a while ago in this thread, the very high mountains are on the southeast end near Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 31.4" max rainfall already showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Ouch. I have notice every run for several days once it turns north it deepens rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS is out to lunch with the pressure. It's dropping while over Florida. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:18 AM, Hoosier said: Might be one of the dreaded who do you evacuate runs. Expand And where does everyone go, if this rides up the eastern third of the state. Would be complete chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The surge along the east/southeastern coast of Florida if this track were to occur would be absolutely catastrophic... don't even want to imagine $$$$ losses given how expensive that real estate down there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:20 AM, CaWx said: Question, even though the steering currents are weak as depicted near FL. With the ridge overhead, what is preventing this run from shooting out into the GOM? Expand The ULL thats diving down into the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 From a near term perspective it's getting pretty crowded with bullies around Irma atm. In the WV image/loops you can see the strengthening ridge to it's NNW moving the storm, almost stepping on it, to the SW but Irma wants to move more west with the TUTT to it's NW. It just looks like there's a bit of a tug of war going on there, but ridges usually win. There also seems to be some ridging to it's SW that is being enhanced by a fairly strong easterly flow out ahead of what could be Jose in the near future. That flow is almost out running the storm and it looks like the storm is getting pinched in the middle of all of these. It's pretty fascinating watching the loop. The storm truly is getting pushed around like a pinball. Once again in the latest model runs that TUTT to the NW is being delayed lifting out/dissipating. All of this is giving the storm a hard time especially at the upper levels currently I believe. I still think in the short term that TUTT to the NW is what's causing the west trend. That's what I'm watching to give me an idea of when/if this thing gets an opportunity to dance with the incoming trof. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:21 AM, Stebo said: It isn't that high, I posted a topographic map a while ago in this thread, the very high mountains are on the southeast end near Hispaniola. Expand Less than very high mountains will still significantly impact the circulation of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Canadian hits southern FL in about the same spot as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 She's following the eastern coastline.. rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:24 AM, jojo762 said: The surge along the east/southeastern coast of Florida if this track were to occur would be absolutely catastrophic... don't even want to imagine $$$$ losses given how expensive that real estate down there is. Expand It also drives surge into the west coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:24 AM, MattPetrulli said: This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. Expand and also top 3 in making absolutely no sense intensity and movement wise. This is a pure clown run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Blows up the entire east coast of FL, Savanah is next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:24 AM, MattPetrulli said: This ranks top 3 in most catastrophic GFS runs ever. Expand what's #1 and #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:26 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: and also top 3 in making absolutely no sense intensity and movement wise. This is a pure clown run. Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Back over water at 192... headed for SC and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Travels NW into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:26 AM, Bostonseminole said: what's #1 and #2? Expand I honestly don't know. Maybe this is #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:25 AM, NCWeSU said: Less than very high mountains will still significantly impact the circulation of Irma. Expand If it goes ashore, it doesn't look to go ashore but ride right along it also a circulation this massive wouldn't be affected as greatly compared to a smaller storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Strike 2 is on SAV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:27 AM, Wow said: Back over water at 192... headed for SC and GA Expand seems to stay mostly over land, luckily.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 CMC is also kinda similar, landfalls southern tip of FL and goes up the coast.. except it's 90 MB higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:23 AM, LovintheWhiteFluff said: GFS is out to lunch with the pressure. It's dropping while over Florida. lol Expand That has occurred before. Or systems barely weaken over S FL due to basically being over water. Wilma barely budged as it crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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