Heisy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Lol this might head into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Landfall in Cuba hr 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 annnd a Cuban LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:05 AM, Stebo said: It is moving out much much quicker compared to 12 and 18z. That is a huge change. Expand Yes and stronger ridging over top of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:08 AM, Hoosier said: Yes and stronger ridging over top of Irma. Expand Yeah, I am very concerned this keeps trekking right through the Florida Straits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 And that's a massive ridge now over the entire Eastern US. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up going towards Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 S FL subject to TS conditions by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 So at D5 lead time we have another significant shift south with the GFS with Irma tracking between Cuba and the Bahamas. This now places it on the south side of the ECMWF/UKMET blend whereas before it was on the north side. The Atlantic ridge is stronger and the trough is more progressive. Irma is still interacting with it, but not as much. 0Z GFS is south of the 18Z GEFS mean at D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 With today's runs, OTS is looking less, and less likely! Euro should be fun in a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I noticed pretty quick that the trough was on pace to get out of there faster, and I was wondering how that was going to impact things. Guess I'm getting the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Well I think at this point we have to keep waiting, wonder what the Euro will show tonight. Scary if this thing even gets remotely close to TX or NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Really takes its time over/next to Cuba as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 You'd think the core would decay more with all that time over Cuba. Some good elevation near the middle of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Starting to make the turn north at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:14 AM, Wow said: Starting to make the turn north at 156. Expand Wrong time to do that, it would plow right into the SE tip of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Yeah not liking where this appears to be going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:15 AM, Stebo said: Wrong time to do that, it would plow right into the SE tip of Florida. Expand Yeah, and several 18z GEFS members were showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Oh boy, hard right, moving due North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:13 AM, Sn0waddict said: Really takes its time over/next to Cuba as well. Expand And doesn't weaken a ton, which goes to show why we should question the validity of the GFS intensity modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Miami is going to take the RFQ along with FLL and PBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 As for the hard turn, a big system like this isn't going to make that hard of a turn, it would be a bit more gradual unless it stalls out. Going west to north in 6 hours in weak steering currents is probably not likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:17 AM, NCWeSU said: And doesn't weaken a ton, which goes to show why we should question the validity of the GFS intensity modeling. Expand It barely touched Cuba this run and if the core stays offshore it won't matter much for a cat 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:15 AM, Stebo said: Wrong time to do that, it would plow right into the SE tip of Florida. Expand Might be one of the dreaded who do you evacuate runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:18 AM, Hoosier said: Might be one of the dreaded who do you evacuate runs. Expand Yeah, margin of error is very small when it slams the tip of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 4:17 AM, Stebo said: As for the hard turn, a big system like this isn't going to make that hard of a turn, it would be a bit more gradual unless it stalls out. Going west to north in 6 hours in weak steering currents is probably not likely to happen. Expand It basically does stall out there around 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 881 MB right over what was formerly called "South Florida" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Miami strike coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 174, Florida landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Question, even though the steering currents are weak as depicted near FL. With the ridge overhead, what is preventing this run from shooting out into the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS is on the good stuff tonight. What just happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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