Tarheel17 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Beyond run-to-run model gazing, I think what concerns me about potential CONUS impacts from this storm is how tight the NHC cone is going into the Bahamas by Friday. That's 5 days away, and there is a lot of consensus up until then. That puts it only 2-4 days from CONUS impacts beyond that point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 4:48 PM, winterymix said: Historic floods E. KY to Charlotte NC to S. central WV. Expand More areas flooded than that, not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 4:58 PM, BlunderStorm said: Expand Thanks for this map! Do you have a similar map for the peak wind gusts for the same area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:04 PM, LibertyBell said: Thanks for this map! Do you have a similar map for the peak wind gusts for the same area? Expand Oh these maps are free and easy to access. http://www.pivotalweather.com/ Also, to answer your question I don'tbut there is plenty of information to be read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 4:54 PM, LibertyBell said: Not likely at all, but even if we get it into the 910s or 920s, it's going to be a historic event. Did the Euro have it getting down to around 920? Expand 0z Euro landfalls at 920, maybe a tad higher since it's getting close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 ^Seriously, that precip map above probably won't verify in the least bit....damn thing is a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So I know it's easier to just focus on the GFS because we have all of these pretty maps for it but the UK has a strong track record. Any thoughts? Seems to be going more W than the GFS from 120-144 but they're in similar positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Anybody know when Recon is going out? I heard it was today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 4:28 PM, SN_Lover said: Gonna bookmark this...NUTS. Expand Sub 900 not going to happen, think this is low 940s at it's strongest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:11 PM, SN_Lover said: Anybody know when Recon is going out? I heard it was today? Expand I think if I remember it showed 1730z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:13 PM, Buddy1987 said: I think if I remember it showed 1730z today. Expand http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It worries me that the euro and gfs are both coming together on this . That rarely ever happens if at all. Something tells me Irma is going to surprise everyone with what's coming .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:09 PM, Birds~69 said: ^Seriously, that precip map above probably won't verify in the least bit....damn thing is a week away. Expand Taken with a grain of salt mind you. The past 3 GFS runs have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:20 PM, WxWatcher007 said: If I'm reading that right, that's the plan for the 4th and 5th? I think there's a flight scheduled for today per today's plan (text issued yesterday) and the 11am disco. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT SAT 02 SEPTEMBER 2017 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017 TCPOD NUMBER.....17-093 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE IRMA FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42 A. 03/2100Z A. 04/0900Z B. NOAA2 0111A IRMA B. NOAA2 0211A IRMA C. 03/1900Z C. 04/0700Z D. 17.5N 49.0W D. 17.2N 51.0W E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0030Z E. 04/0830Z TO 04/1230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z NEAR 17.2N 52.5W. B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z. Expand I updated the link, for whatever reason today's plan is considered a previous product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:13 PM, Buddy1987 said: I think if I remember it showed 1730z today. Expand Should mean we have fresh data for the 00z run, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just eyeballing the 12z GEFS and it looks like about 1/3 of members have a Florida landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:17 PM, BlunderStorm said: Taken with a grain of salt mind you. The past 3 GFS runs have been similar. Expand Not blaming you...it's just ridiculous for precip maps to be generated at this point. It still could slam Fla or become a fish storm (although unlikely). Hurricanes are just flat out unpredictable and strange.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:15 PM, OceanStWx said: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml Expand For those curious: A. is the official invest time C. is the departure time E. is the expected mission duration Everything else is fairly self explanatory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:22 PM, cdhay17 said: Should mean we have fresh data for the 00z run, correct? Expand Since the invest time is 1730z that equates to 1:30 est, so we should have a some good invest into what she's doing internally, as they will be flying surface to 15,000ft. So to answer your question there will be real time data coming from the Hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Is Irma somewhat north of forecast right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 4:28 PM, jojo762 said: On 9/3/2017 at 4:28 PM, BlunderStorm said: Landfall at North Myrtle Beach. Expand As a sub-900mb hurricane nonetheless. Expand And we live just a couple miles from KMYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wheels up at 3pm ET today... https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/03/hurricane-field-program-update-sunday-sept-3-2017-11-am-et/ Hurricane Field Program Update – Sunday, Sept. 3, 2017, 11 AM ET September 3, 2017 · by noaahrd OPERATIONS Sunday, 3 Sept. 2017 G-IV: The jet will ferry down to the islands to prepare for future flights around Hurricane Irma. NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 1900 UTC (3 PM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight. Monday, 4 Sept. 2017 NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 0600 UTC (10 AM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight. G-IV: The G-IV is tasked by NHC for a synoptic surveillance mission around Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 1730 UTC (1:30 PM ET). NO HRD scientists will be on this flight. NOAA42: The P3 is tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center for a Tail Doppler Radar mission into Hurricane Irma. Takeoff is scheduled for 2000 UTC (4 PM ET) from Grantley Adams International Airport, Barbados. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Thats the G-IV flying to Barbados for missions tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Almost all landfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:43 PM, Jackstraw said: Thats the G-IV flying to Barbados for missions tomorrow Expand Right, the plan is a 19z departure today for a tail radar mission (according the NHC discussion anyway and yesterday's plan of the day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Go Kermit Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:37 PM, Hoosier said: Is Irma somewhat north of forecast right now? Expand Looks that way to me. If you overlay the forecast points you can see it's clearly North of the forecast. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-avn-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Will wait for the Euro but looks like the Carolinas is the main threat area currently. Also thinks it moves NW after LF sparing most of the Northeast rather than a Floyd or Irene track. The GEFS supports that idea. Euro not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:37 PM, Hoosier said: Is Irma somewhat north of forecast right now? Expand It is. It looks to be about 17.8 or 9 atm. Needs to get down to 17.1 by 7pm or so to stay on the forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 5:46 PM, Hoosier said: Almost all landfalls Expand Apologize in advance if I am being thick, but is there some reason why the pressure is 940's on this graphic vs. 880's on the OP run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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