NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:29 PM, DopplerWx said: yeah big mid atl hit this run. Expand It was blatantly obvious this wasn't going OTS as soon as the trough started moving out around 168hrs. Then it was just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:30 PM, NJwx85 said: Look how that ULL over the Ohio Valley turns over, it really is eerily close to Sandy. Landfall is just over DE/MD rather than SNJ. Expand some of the earlier Euro runs prior to Sandy had a landfall in this location (they had landfalls from DelMarVa up to about Long Island) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:31 PM, Mailman said: Canadian makes landfall in NC. Mid-950s or so. Expand Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions. This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Almost the exact same LF location as the previous 2 runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 5:08 AM, Subtropics said: It's 1am and it was in the 60s air temp today. That's not representative at all. Look at August's day time temps. We hit nearly 85 10 days ago, which is crazy. Almost the whole month above 75 during the day. That didn't used to happen. If anything, the fact it is still above average after a day this chilly and it being after midnight is not a good sign. Expand lol you don't understand any of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Some prettt big changes aloft between 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:33 PM, SN_Lover said: Almost the exact same LF location at the previous 2 runs! Expand it reminds me of the one with the ocean city LF from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like the rain shield would be a bit compact, especially to the East of the center, but Tropical storm force winds would be felt as far Northeast as Cape Cod. It's just one run with many more to come. But if the pattern plays out similar to this, I really don't see how it could possibly go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Rebuilding ridge allows Irma to chug more NW or even WNW after landfall, compared to NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Same result despite looking way different at H5. Just takes a bit longer this run. CMC shows a similar solution with landfall in the southern outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:33 PM, csnavywx said: A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions. This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east. Expand I really don't think it was as close as you say at all. The ridge rebuilds overhead and the trough eventually captures it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:33 PM, csnavywx said: A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions. This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east. Expand Not sure if I'd say close to being swept ots. Close to heading NNE in eastern New England versus captured, I agree with more based on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Looks like the rain shield would be a bit compact, especially to the East of the center, but Tropical storm force winds would be felt as far Northeast as Cape Cod. It's just one run with many more to come. But if the pattern plays out similar to this, I really don't see how it could possibly go OTS. Expand Don't buy that part. There will be a leftover/stalled front from that filling trough in that scenario. Potential for a PRE there depending on where that front is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:33 PM, csnavywx said: A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions. This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east. Expand Yeah, what it says is to be very cautious about this setup even though we happened to get landfall in a somewhat similar location on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:37 PM, csnavywx said: Don't buy that part. There will be a leftover/stalled front from that filling trough in that scenario. Potential for a PRE there depending on where that front is. Expand Yeah and as the trough lifts out it's going to suck Irma up the coast. That's why this is a Mid-Atlantic hit and not a Carolina hit like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still way out of range for the GFS, so this run probably won't happen. Even so glad to see a SE coast miss, but it would still bring days of massive wave action and erosion to the coast from FLA and north. Intensity is again likely overdone at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:39 PM, Hoosier said: Yeah, what it says is to be very cautious about this setup even though we happened to get landfall in a somewhat similar location on this run. Expand I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:34 PM, Rjay said: Some prettt big changes aloft between 6z and 12z Expand And yet it still makes landfall, which is not good if you're hoping for an OTS track. The pattern is becoming increasingly supportive of an East coast landfall. How long that weakness remains and Irma's speed may determine landfall location rather than whether or not it'll make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Major difference is that Canadian has a landfall and not a OTS solution as 0z! Lets see if we can go 3 for 3 after the Euro comes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm not buying the landfall details at this point. Long way to go. Still feel like the entire East Coast and Maritime Canada (and fish) in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:40 PM, NJwx85 said: I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. Expand The euro only fails to achieve this solution because of a southerly short term movement. It is a scary prospect, the next 72 hours are critical. It seems more obvious that someone will be impacted by this in the conus, directly. If it comes in that strong, you can be sure the ridge will react accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At any rate, this shows how shaky that trough evolution is atm. The only thing we're getting some agreement on is the ridge flattening scenario over the northern CONUS/Canada, something the GFS seems to have picked up on first, surprisingly. How exactly that pans out is another question (and an important one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:40 PM, NJwx85 said: I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. Expand But to me, that option is still very much on the table at this point. Models are not reliable at this range and I think we need to be cautious. By 0z tonight GFS could easily be showing a fish and it could be game over. Seen it MANY times. Not saying it will or that we should become complacent, but people have a tendency to take long range models as gospel and then get burned bad, over and over again. I think Tuesday and Wed is a good time to get serious about specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 4:43 PM, SN_Lover said: Major difference is that Canadian has a landfall and not a OTS solution as 0z! Lets see if we can go 3 for 3 after the Euro comes out! Expand There is no situation where the Canadian matters or is a "major difference." It's not a useful tropical model. There is a reason the Canadian is not included as a member of any of the consensus models which are the most accurate ones in existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yeah it looks like whatever was impeding it is gone again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 5:00 PM, NJwx85 said: Why is it that you could have all things pointing towards a US landfall, and people still try to pick it apart and find reasons for it not to happen? While anything is possible at thing range, this is all about pattern recognition. Does the setup at H5 support the solution? Yes it does.Nothing wrong with being cautious at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 On 9/2/2017 at 5:00 PM, NJwx85 said: Why is it that you could have all things pointing towards a US landfall, and people still try to pick it apart and find reasons for it not to happen? While anything is possible at thing range, this is all about pattern recognition. Does the setup at H5 support the solution? Yes it does. Expand The setup supports it at this time, but come tomorrow it could easily be totally different. It has happened time and time again with long range models. They are VERY unreliable. Right now this needs to be monitored closely for the potential. Specifics and certainties are for entertainment only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 DT (WxRisk) Saturday update on Irma https://www.wxrisk.com/saturday-sept-2-irma-update-us-landfall-threat-seems-to-be-increading/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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