MJO812 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro is similiar to the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:59 PM, NJwx85 said: Could end up similar. Expand I was thinking Floyd, but this looks similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A little OT, but also kinda on topic regarding track. Does anyone have an idea why the SSTs are so cold above OBX? It's about as cold as some of the far south Atlantic SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18z initialization puts Irma at 115 MPH/967 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:00 PM, MattPetrulli said: A little OT, but also kinda on topic regarding track. Does anyone have an idea why the SSTs are so cold above OBX? It's about as cold as some of the far south Atlantic SSTs. Expand Some of that could be upwelling from PTD 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:57 PM, andyhb said: If we're going to make comparisons regarding size, Floyd is the answer. Expand Also possibly the track. Remember how Floyd was supposed to make landfall in Fla and it just wandered around before making landfall in NC (which contributed to it losing some steam- at one point it was a fierce 155 mph Cat 4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:03 PM, NJwx85 said: Some of that could be upwelling from PTD 10. Expand It has been like this a good portion of the season, before PTC 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Right now I think Floyd is the best comparison. Intensity wise, could have some Isabel potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here we go, bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 ADT numbers just skyrocketed. I'm sure it will be much deeper at 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Here we go, bombs away Expand Irma is going to be another Isabel, she just looks sexy already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Here we go, bombs away Expand looks stuck just under 19N. Should start drifting South soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:03 PM, MattPetrulli said: It has been like this a good portion of the season, before PTC 10. Expand Persistent troughiness will lower surface SSTs. High amount of ocean mixing and cloudiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:03 PM, NJwx85 said: Some of that could be upwelling from PTD 10. Expand Umm it's been quite chilly and dry up here in Mid Atlantic the waters are cooling up here fast strong northerly flow only 67 here near Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 With the upper low to the west capturimg Irma at the end of the run it would head more NW, has a similar look to Fran from 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Its size could be very disturbing even if it stays offshore. I'll admit that there are some ominous tracks in there, hopefully we see more Eastward shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If Irma ends up the size that it's progged to be there are going to be some serious storm surge impacts. Looks likely we can write off any land interaction with Hispaniola or Cuba at this point. This storm will have uninterrupted 27C+ waters right up to Florida to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:12 PM, harrisale said: If Irma ends up the size that it's progged to be there are going to be some serious storm surge impacts. Looks likely we can write off any land interaction with Hispaniola or Cuba at this point. This storm will have uninterrupted 27C+ waters right up to Florida to work with. Expand If this hits the OBX as a cat 4 or 5, you can say goodbye to several islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Between hours 228 and 240 movement on the Euro is NNW. Between hours 234 and 240, it's almost due north. Would likely result in an eastern SC/NC hit and then near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:10 PM, Stebo said: With the upper low to the west capturimg Irma at the end of the run it would head more NW, has a similar look to Fran from 1996. Expand The fact the Irma even remotely looks like an Isabel or Floyd is incredible to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:14 PM, SN_Lover said: If this hits the OBX as a cat 4 or 5, you can say goodbye to several islands. Expand Problems would ensue big time north as Irma accelerates up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:15 PM, ag3 said: Between hours 228 and 240 movement on the Euro is NNW. Between hours 234 and 240, it's almost due north. Would likely result in an eastern SC/NC hit and then near LI. Expand Almost similar to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Not sure how much weight this holds, but here is what Irma will eventually run into. Toasty SSTs well past capable of an intense hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I wonder if Jose will get close enough to influence Irma with regards to track. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Storm is in a really nice low shear environment right now. Should definitely seeing some near-term strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:15 PM, ag3 said: Between hours 228 and 240 movement on the Euro is NNW. Between hours 234 and 240, it's almost due north. Would likely result in an eastern SC/NC hit and then near LI. Expand Would be something if the I storm that replaced Irene in 2011 took a generally similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 7:04 PM, CaWx said: Right now I think Floyd is the best comparison. Intensity wise, could have some Isabel potential. Expand On 9/1/2017 at 7:07 PM, CaWx said: Irma is going to be another Isabel, she just looks sexy already. Expand On 9/1/2017 at 7:16 PM, CaWx said: Almost similar to Irene. Expand Let's cool it a little with this, hey? Drawing the name of every destructive East Coast hurricane is wildly irresponsible when your storm is still well offshore at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I did some poking around. I believe the record for IKE (integrated kinetic energy) was Hurricane Isabel in 2003 (Katrina and Sandy are pretty high up on the list as well). It achieved an IKE of 212 TJ on 9/18 at 15Z with a pressure of 957mb as it approached the coast. The Euro is forecasting Irma to be of similar size but with a pressure of 918mb. Verbatim the Euro would be very close to (or possibly exceed) Isabel in terms of kinetic energy and power output. Here is the pattern for Isabel at peak IKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The 12z EURO reminds me of Irene/Floyd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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