SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:48 PM, NJwx85 said: Not on this run, no it doesn't. It's the equivalent of being stuck at the bottom of a well. Expand look to the NE at hour 192 at 500mb. Canes always take the path of least resistance and that COULD be a avenue it takes OR it does what you say. Just pointing out possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:49 PM, NJwx85 said: Please let me finish posting the run, otherwise people become confused. Expand You don't necessarily have to be the one posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I dunno... I see the beginning of a N or NW turn at 216 in the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:26 PM, Kevin Reilly said: Remember Gloria very well forecast was for up the Delaware Bay 18 hours out reality was center passing 90 miles east of Atlantic City which brings on much different results inland. Jersey shore winds gusted to 90 or so for a time pretty good surge still as well. Philadelphia gusted to 6o to 65 particularly on Back side when high pressure was building back in Expand Gloria intensity forecast was bad. Wasn't it supposed to be a 130 mph hurricane just east of ACY? It was nowhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like Andrew. Expand Andrew was a small but intense hurricane. Irma will likely be large and intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:52 PM, donsutherland1 said: Andrew was a small but intense hurricane. Irma will likely be large and intense. Expand I edited to reflect larger Andrew, but then deleted to avoid creating a stir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:51 PM, yoda said: I dunno... I see the beginning of a N turn at 216 in the Bahamas Expand Well another trough starts digging into the lakes at this point, but it's already very close to SE FL. That's how you get a Carolina or NY landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I edited to reflect larger Andrew, but then deleted to avoid creating a stir. Expand It's in a similar spot to Matthew right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Wow 925mb cat 5 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 I don't know how you avoid landfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:54 PM, NJwx85 said: I don't know how you avoid landfall at this point. Expand Movement is NW or N from 216 to there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:51 PM, Paragon said: Gloria intensity forecast was bad. Wasn't it supposed to be a 130 mph hurricane just east of ACY? It was nowhere near that. Expand Gloria was 110mph when it passed 90 miles east of Acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What's pulling Irma north/northwest at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Look at that wind field, these are 10m winds, or just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The simulated IR from the Euro that Ryan just posted on twitter looks very ominous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:55 PM, yoda said: Movement is NW or N from 216 to there? Expand NW, for sure. Extrapolated just for fun this looks like Charleston or Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I edited to reflect larger Andrew, but then deleted to avoid creating a stir. Expand No problem. I just made the observation as there may be members here who don't realize just how small Andrew was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:52 PM, donsutherland1 said: Andrew was a small but intense hurricane. Irma will likely be large and intense. Expand This kind of reminds me of Floyd. That one was going to hit Fla too and then veered north. It was also large and intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:55 PM, TriPol said: What's pulling Irma north/northwest at the end? Expand ULL in the midwest. This is very serious, please take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Moves due North hrs 234-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:54 PM, CaWx said: Irma is mean on the Euro, somebody is going to be excited after this run. Expand The sim sat is pretty fierce looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If you loop 500mb between 216 -- 240 hours it is clearly curving NW....Looks like it would be a SC/NC landfall potentially on this run.. When is the last time the Carolinas had a CAT 3+ landfall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:54 PM, NJwx85 said: I don't know how you avoid landfall at this point. Expand With a building ridge to the east, I don't think you will. It's my wildcard in all this, if you have a strong NE ridge of Irma, someone on the east coast will have a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:56 PM, donsutherland1 said: No problem. I just made the observation as there may be members here who don't realize just how small Andrew was. Expand If we're going to make comparisons regarding size, Floyd is the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Rip in peace the SE coast beyond 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:55 PM, Kevin Reilly said: Gloria was 110mph when it passed 90 miles east of Acy Expand But at the time it happened, the local media was telling us it was 130 mph. They must have reassessed later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Could end up similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 9/1/2017 at 6:56 PM, donsutherland1 said: No problem. I just made the observation as there may be members here who don't realize just how small Andrew was. Expand Andrew was almost like a large tornado. I don't know if it was larger at its second landfall in LA though? Irma looks small for where it is right now in the Atlantic, but is forecast to get larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Jose kind of gets trapped under the ridge too, I could see it following Irma fairly closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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