SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:38 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand "Compromise" between the two global's is going to result in the worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Heading right for the Turks and Caicos and then the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Pretty darn similar for 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:39 PM, SN_Lover said: "Compromise" between the two is going to result in the worst case scenario. Expand You want it to follow the 12z Euro path in order to have greater odds of keeping the storm in tact. If this goes over PR or South it will probably get shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:40 PM, NJwx85 said: You want it to follow the 12z Euro path in order to have greater odds of keeping the storm in tact. If this goes over PR or South it will probably get shredded. Expand Also, don't forget Cuba. Needs to get far away or downsloping will kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:39 PM, JC-CT said: Pretty darn similar for 7 days out. Expand My thoughts as well. That'd be a significant shift if were were within a few days, but that's pretty dang consistent for it being so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 192 getting ready to enter the SE Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Man, it moves so slow. I would imagine the lack of steering current would up the error at this long lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern. It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic states... certainly no escape out to sea in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The 0Z and now 12Z runs pinch off that CONUS trough and spins it around MO while building a 597 ridge over Bermuda at HR 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:44 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern. It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic... would be bad for US. Expand That look at 500 was what really leapt out at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 No way this goes North on the Euro, only path is to the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 FWIW, 12z CMC is much closer to what the euro looks like than the GFS, as far as positioning goes. GFS is out in lala land as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 What's the 12z Euro T+192 pressure of Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 216 looks like it going to thread the needle south of FL and head for the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:50 PM, LakeEffectKing said: What's the 12z Euro T+192 pressure of Irma? Expand 946 on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:50 PM, packfan98 said: 216 looks like it going to thread the needle south of FL and head for the gulf... Expand Not after taking a gulp of dry air from cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Center is warming and clearing out nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Heading for the Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:52 PM, SN_Lover said: Not after taking a gulp of dry air from cuba. Expand The core remains well offshore, highly doubt that down-sloping would be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:44 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Most notable thing with this run is the way the Euro handles the US pattern. It digs the deep trough, but then breaks off the base into a cutoff low and lifts out the rest of the trough, allowing a strong Bermuda ridge to build westward into the mid-Atlantic states... certainly no escape out to sea in this scenario. Expand If a cutoff ULL sets up over the deep south then it's not getting into the GOM. Either swings a hard right up into FL or if it comes up further north by then, it'll drill well into the SE if the HP is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Ouch, the Florida keys take the RFQ head on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:54 PM, NJwx85 said: The core remains well offshore, highly doubt that down-sloping would be an issue. Expand you will see.... don't forget the high mountains for added excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Going to be a fun ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:56 PM, SN_Lover said: you will see.... don't forget the high mountains for added excitement. Expand This isn't going to end up anywhere near Cuba in reality so I'm not worried about it. Should have slammed into Florida as others have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 6:57 PM, NJwx85 said: This isn't going to end up anywhere near Cuba in reality so I'm not worried about it. Should have slammed into Florida as others have said. Expand I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Well, I guess one very slight positive is that it slightly weakened as it headed to FL. I mean, not to downplay it by any means, but it's been than it strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Well, even being 10 days out....this morning's Euro run has to be a pretty concerning for FL and the N. GOM coasts...and of course HOU/N.O.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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