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September 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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Some quality late summer weather out there.  There is something a little contradictory about the warmth and some of the early turning trees starting to shed leaves.  Just a reminder that nature is trying to turn the page, but without much success for the foreseeable future.

Not too optimistic on rain chances tomorrow, with multiple models suggesting a split somewhere around here or nearby.  

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On 9/15/2017 at 11:59 AM, snowlover2 said:

It will probably be brought up so might as well get it out there. 12z GFS fantasy land showing a pretty deep trough. 540 line makes it to IN/OH and 850mb 0 degree line at one point gets down to I-70 in Ohio. We all know that will change though.

It sure did change.

IMG_5198.PNG

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Moderate drought popping up in central Illinois, I believe it, it’s been extremely dry especially in champaign since around mid July. 20 miles north, and they’ve had 6+” of rain since our dry spell.

an extended warm to very warm spell will only exacerbate the dry conditions. 

 

EDIT: KCMI officially tagged 90 yesterday. Potentially very hot weekend ahead? 

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We received our first rainfall in weeks overnight.  It was heavier in central and southern Iowa, but I managed an ok 0.31".  It was great listening to the rain in the middle of the night, with my window open.

Plains and western Midwest might do alright in this pattern with the persistent western trough.  

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rainsucks will like this

The main story will be with the late season heat over the area.
Temperatures are expected to jump into the upper 80s by Wednesday
as a lower-level thermal ridge gets advected northward over the
area in response to a surface warm frontal passage. With the
airmass likely remaining similar over the area into the weekend,
expect mid to even some upper 80s for highs through the period.
We can`t even rule out the possibility for some areas touching 90
degrees, which would be near the record high for this time of
year.

KJB
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6 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Will be interesting to see what the temp departures will be like at the end of the month. Maybe not quite as warm as last Sept, but it won't be too far off.

If the first third or so of the month had simply been anywhere close to average, we would be seeing some really warm anomalies by the end of the month.  Most of the sub was +4 to +6 last September.  My guess would be a finish near average in eastern/southern areas (they have somewhat larger negative departures right now and the upcoming warmth doesn't look as far above average there, overall) trending toward +2 or +3 as you get toward Chicago and west.

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With 10 more days of upper 70s to mid 80s on tap, I am seeing the month finish warmer than normal now here. Not by a lot, but on the plus side. It is an odd feeling that after one of the coldest starts to September on record and having hardly used my A.C. at all in August, the a.c. goes back on the 2nd half of September. And to add to the oddity, I cannot ever recall seeing the Fall color so far along in mid-Sept. Weird all around.

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After .61" of welcome rain late last night and early this morning, it turned into a gorgeous, more typical early fall day.  I think the leaves are actually right on schedule imby.  Took this pic just west of my house near the silver lake basin today... another 4-7 days until peak I think, but it's beautiful now.

DSC00857.thumb.JPG.bc3eaf4eb4c1bb859aa7eeb715e4c726.JPG

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

After .61" of welcome rain late last night and early this morning, it turned into a gorgeous, more typical early fall day.  I think the leaves are actually right on schedule imby.  Took this pic just west of my house near the silver lake basin today... another 4-7 days until peak I think, but it's beautiful now.

DSC00857.thumb.JPG.bc3eaf4eb4c1bb859aa7eeb715e4c726.JPG

Fantastic!   We can't hold a candle to your rugged beauty, but I could post some equally blazing color shots from around SWMI which is way early for us.

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Gotta catch a break once in a while! Had a 30% risk turn into 2" of very welcomed rain, complete with a flood advisory!

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=flood advisory

 

Congrats

Radar estimated precip in IN/MI really tells the story, with some splotches/streaks of 0.5"+ but most areas missing out.

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