Powerball Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Wow you like to drive! For the first 4 years I commuted from wyandotte to Southgate, the last 3 it's wyandotte to Farmington hills, so I drive a lot more now. I'm sure Stebo can attest that there's something about the peacefulness of road trips. It feels good to explore areas outside of your backyard at your own leisure (whereas on a plane or train or bus, you're bound by their schedule & procedures) while simultaneously not having to worry about fighting a bunch of traffic or getting to/from work at a certain time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Had some very dense fog to start the day, but it was shallow and burned off quickly. Made it up to 84, which is the warmest temp since Aug 10th (86). MLI hit 86. Should make a run at 90 tomorrow and Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Had some very dense fog to start the day, but it was shallow and burned off quickly. Made it up to 84, which is the warmest temp since Aug 10th (86). MLI hit 86. Should make a run at 90 tomorrow and Sat. MLI may get pretty close to Saturday's record, which is only 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: MLI may get pretty close to Saturday's record, which is only 92. Would like to see more of a southwesterly component to the wind, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Would like to see more of a southwesterly component to the wind, but I guess we'll see. Reasonable concern, especially in mid September when there's less margin for error compared to earlier. Though DSM managed 92 with mostly due southerly flow this afternoon. Safe bet would be a degree or two short on that record, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Grass has gone brown/dormant here too with the dry conditions. It should help warmer temps work out in the coming days though. I hate it when grass crunches when you walk on it. Same conditions here. We are in the yellow here also. Could use a little moisture before the farmers get in the bean fields or field fires might become a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Powerball said: I'm sure Stebo can attest that there's something about the peacefulness of road trips. It feels good to explore areas outside of your backyard at your own leisure (whereas on a plane or train or bus, you're bound by their schedule & procedures) while simultaneously not having to worry about fighting a bunch of traffic or getting to/from work at a certain time. Oh I LOVE road trips, especially north. I just get tired of rush hour 5 days a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, bowtie` said: I hate it when grass crunches when you walk on it. Same conditions here. We are in the yellow here also. Could use a little moisture before the farmers get in the bean fields or field fires might become a concern. Our grass is green. Complete swap from early summer when we were dry and Chicago was emerald green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 16 hours ago, Powerball said: I'm sure Stebo can attest that there's something about the peacefulness of road trips. It feels good to explore areas outside of your backyard at your own leisure (whereas on a plane or train or bus, you're bound by their schedule & procedures) while simultaneously not having to worry about fighting a bunch of traffic or getting to/from work at a certain time. Yep, downloaded a bunch of podcasts before I left and enjoyed the open road. Best part, with it being off season already traffic was great, nothing was crowded and hotel rates were lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Already 80 at ORD. Might be able to get to 87 or so at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 It will probably be brought up so might as well get it out there. 12z GFS fantasy land showing a pretty deep trough. 540 line makes it to IN/OH and 850mb 0 degree line at one point gets down to I-70 in Ohio. We all know that will change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: It will probably be brought up so might as well get it out there. 12z GFS fantasy land showing a pretty deep trough. 540 line makes it to IN/OH and 850mb 0 degree line at one point gets down to I-70 in Ohio. We all know that will change though. Say it ain't so. In general, it does look like we will back off the above/much above average pattern around the end of the month, but magnitude of the cooldown obviously remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 May not be the case everywhere but temps are overshooting virtually all guidance from last night around Chicago. Model 2m temps/MOS were clustered around 83-84 for a high, and it's 85 with some warming left to go. HRRR from last night seems like it caught onto the potential to overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: It will probably be brought up so might as well get it out there. 12z GFS fantasy land showing a pretty deep trough. 540 line makes it to IN/OH and 850mb 0 degree line at one point gets down to I-70 in Ohio. We all know that will change though. Nah, the pattern we're in right now is going to lock in for a long time. And lol @ anyone bringing up what the OP GFS is showing at hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 21 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Nah, the pattern we're in right now is going to lock in for a long time. And lol @ anyone bringing up what the OP GFS is showing at hour 384. Not realistic to maintain 10-15 degree above average readings indefinitely. There's support for a cool down (this doesn't have to mean the freezer) around the end of the month, whether you want to look at the Euro weeklies, CFS weeklies, etc. Maybe it gets delayed, but in any case, refer to first sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Can't say I buy 100% into the posted 90 degree highs tomorrow. It is pretty try outside, so it has that in its favor, however the NAM and especially the GFS have become increasingly aggressive bringing in cloud debris and possible showers into east central Iowa by 18z lasting thru 21z. If such a scenario occurs, it is quite possible we only make it to the mid-upper 80s clouds depending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 45 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Nah, the pattern we're in right now is going to lock in for a long time. And lol @ anyone bringing up what the OP GFS is showing at hour 384. Well I did say it was in fantasy land and there is no reason to believe it now but if it's still there inside of 180 hours then i'll believe it more. It's not impossible to cool down that much. I've seen snowflakes fly here as early as mid October. After all it is getting to be that time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not realistic to maintain 10-15 degree above average readings indefinitely. There's support for a cool down (this doesn't have to mean the freezer) around the end of the month, whether you want to look at the Euro weeklies, CFS weeklies, etc. Maybe it gets delayed, but in any case, refer to first sentence. You do realize he is mostly trolling anyway when he says that. It will be interesting to see how much warmer Chicago gets than Detroit. The models clearly favor the western sub for the warmest temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You do realize he is mostly trolling anyway when he says that. It will be interesting to see how much warmer Chicago gets than Detroit. The models clearly favor the western sub for the warmest temps. Well, 87 at ORD today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Des Moines made it to 94, a few degrees shy of their record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 I think ORD has a shot at 90 tomorrow. Don't have very high confidence at this point, but should have at least a little warmer starting point in the morning compared to today and there's some suggestion on forecast soundings of slightly deeper mixing than what occurred today. It should be close either way. Very real possibility they get 89'd. If 90 occurs, it would have some significance as ORD has had 90+ in the back half of September only 3 times in the past 30 years - 1988, 1998, 2007. Guess what? All 3 of those years were in or had a developing La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I think ORD has a shot at 90 tomorrow. Don't have very high confidence at this point, but should have at least a little warmer starting point in the morning compared to today and there's some suggestion on forecast soundings of slightly deeper mixing than what occurred today. It should be close either way. Very real possibility they get 89'd. If 90 occurs, it would have some significance as ORD has had 90+ in the back half of September only 3 times in the past 30 years - 1988, 1998, 2007. Guess what? All 3 of those years were in or had a developing La Nina. Not a record but 2010 also hit 90 at DTW on 21st another developing La Nina, though that one was a bit more established by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Not a record but 2010 also hit 90 at DTW on 21st another developing La Nina, though that one was a bit more established by that point. Might be something to it, then. If ORD doesn't hit 90 today, there might be another shot later in the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 LOT's long term AFD made no sense... Quote Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected throughout the extended. Temps are going to be in the mid 80s easy during that stretch, that's like 15 degrees above normal. Hardly seasonal to "slightly above" normal. What has this forecaster been smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 DTW squeaked a high of 80 yesterday, just the 2nd 80 in the first half of September. It only missed the record by 20 degrees . The record high was an astounding 100F in 1939. Today's record, also from 1939, is 98F. A cool first half of Sept will be followed by a warm 2nd half. But after today, records fall to the low 90s and upper 80s for the remainder of the month. Autumn is encroaching fast, as if we couldn't tell from the abundance of tree color already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Very smoky today, making for hazy conditions. It certainly doesn't seem like a day in mid-September. That said, it will also help to keep temps somewhat in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 MLI made it to 90 yesterday, and 88 here. More clouds today so 90 is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 7 hours ago, rainsucks said: LOT's long term AFD made no sense... Temps are going to be in the mid 80s easy during that stretch, that's like 15 degrees above normal. Hardly seasonal to "slightly above" normal. What has this forecaster been smoking? There are LOT forecasters who hang around this board. You might want to express your disagreements a little better. If you look at their forecast for ORD, they have upper 70s on Mon/Tue and low 80s after that. Current average high is 75. imo, their numbers are too low, especially beyond early week, which would tend to put things into a higher category than just "slightly above." There should be periodic chances of showers/storms (or at least clouds), which could hold back the potential some on a given day if poorly timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Can always adjust up that far out. and like you said there is questions on cloud debris. This is about as good as it gets wx for a mid-month sept weekend. Loving it. Got the dogs to the beach before the wind switchesoff the lake some. Maybe we can repeat this next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Hazy days due to western forest fires. I wonder how this affects temps at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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