snowlover2 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Met fall is almost upon us and it appears at least the first week of the month will feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Looks like Harvey's remnants will be moving into the Ohio Valley with a heavy rain threat in parts of the area, and perhaps isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 CFS just keeps trending warmer and warmer for Sept, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 5:29 PM, Hoosier said: Looks like Harvey's remnants will be moving into the Ohio Valley with a heavy rain threat in parts of the area, and perhaps isolated severe. Expand 12z Euro brings Harvey northeast up to about Cincy before heading eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 And brings a nasty 15 degree below normal shot of air down by mid week next week..or colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Maybe an early leaf change this year. I got down to 42F with a warmer airmass a few days ago, frost isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Latest WPC 7 day QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 8:21 PM, iluvsnow said: And brings a nasty 15 degree below normal shot of air down by mid week next week..or colder! Expand Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that... I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 10:15 PM, rainsucks said: Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that... I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore. Expand They never learn, it is the same thing every fall, every cold snap early in the season is crop killing summer ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/28/2017 at 10:15 PM, rainsucks said: Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that... I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore. Expand 216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 1:50 AM, Jonger said: 216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much. Expand This summer would have been the coldest on record if the ECMWF had been right the entire time. It isn't just the Euro either the GFS and CMC both have severe cold biases in the medium and long range ,which doesn't really make sense in a warming climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 warminista's never fail either to disappoint on the first page of every new month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 6:00 AM, UMB WX said: warminista's never fail either to disappoint on the first page of every new month. Expand Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots? ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 It's funny how humans have a warm or cold bias, hence humans created ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 6:45 AM, rainsucks said: Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots? ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so... Expand Seems your stay here will thankfully be short. Toodles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 1:18 PM, UMB WX said: Seems your stay here will thankfully be short. Toodles Expand It's most likely Cromartie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 2:34 PM, Jonger said: It's most likely Cromartie. Expand Loves regurgitating his, CCM counterparts trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 September will be warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 best time for warmth - I'll take a +3 fall. Spring was a total bust and Summer has been taco bell mild sauce weak so bring on some - fading daylight fall warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 The next two weeks are going to put September's departure into quite a hole to climb out of. I'm thinking we will be sitting near -3F to -5F by September 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Jonger...you could be right. All of the global models seemed to be determined to bring down some anomalous cold for later next week. They have been consistent with this for some time. We will see if the doubters are right...or the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 I'm absolutely loving this weather. It's sunny and 75F where I am... virtually no humidity. I'm in Lansing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 8:34 PM, iluvsnow said: Jonger...you could be right. All of the global models seemed to be determined to bring down some anomalous cold for later next week. They have been consistent with this for some time. We will see if the doubters are right...or the models.... Expand There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 9:22 PM, Stebo said: There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures. Expand The EURO has been smoking pretty good **** lately. It's been busting so hard this entire season, ride the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 We had double digit negative departures on the cold snap this week alone. Lansing had a -11 and -12 departure back to back. Metro airport always leans warm in the heat island.... the -5 to -8 is probably more likely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 10:05 PM, rainsucks said: The EURO has been smoking pretty good **** lately. It's been busting so hard this entire season, ride the GFS. Expand We are looking at the GFS. Your palm trees are going to freeze soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 On 8/30/2017 at 12:08 AM, Jonger said: We had double digit negative departures on the cold snap this week alone. Lansing had a -11 and -12 departure back to back. Metro airport always leans warm in the heat island.... the -5 to -8 is probably more likely there. Expand Just like the GFS/Euro saying that Harvey would go straight into Texas at day 9-10. You have to realize things change in models through time, I mean are you honestly thinking we will be in the low 50s for highs late next week? That is what these models are trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I think to be in the Low 50's here late next week would be way more impressive than the 94 we had last yr on Sept 6th. Its Not Happening. Struggling for the Low 60's I could buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Record low maxes for Milwaukee are in the low 50s, and in the upper 50s/low 60s in Detroit on the days in question. So pretty unlikely, and who would call for it over a week out anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 On 8/29/2017 at 3:01 AM, rainsucks said: This summer would have been the coldest on record if the ECMWF had been right the entire time. Expand Not even close lol. I can remember several hot days the euro showed here that never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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