downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 She is getting close to being a annular hurricane, once she can get her ERC done and pop a big fat eye its game on in that dept....probably be a little later this morning. Here is the Euro 850 wind field just to give ya a idea of the size this thing is going to be....also it goes from north Bahamas to here in one day so greatly increasing forward speed would bring high winds WELL inland and up the coast from there especially on right side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Pretty big timing difference starting to show up on the models as well the GFS has it due east of Hatteras at 186 the Euro has it deep in the Bahamas at that time, this is also why the GFS is further east as being fast lets it get more influence from the trough....by the time the Euro has landfall the GFS has the rems of Irma damn near to Greenland...so thats a huge difference lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Exactly. I posted very early in this thread that I hoped each of you had a plan in place and stair stepped into it as we get closer. For most of us (inland) you should be preparing for service disruptions tied to extended power outages. I've already knocked out water / drinks, batteries and shelf stable foods. I have loaded my freezer with water panels which will add another 2-3 days to the life of my food that needs cold storage. I have knocked out gas for the generator and 2 propane tanks for the grill. This weekend I will clean yard debris and burn, trim any trees and bushes around the house and take inventory of loose items that need to be stored. If I lived near the coast I would already have a hotel room booked inland. Early bird gets the worm, and gets to live folks! Prep a little each day! Does anyone have a good Hugo storm impact recap that could be posted as a reminder for those who are too young to remember or those who are new to the area? Here is a video series on Hugo from Charleston NWS http://www.weather.gov/chs/Hugo25thAnniversary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If this is going to be a Hugo part 2 with a direct local hit, my plan is called either Aiken, Atlanta or Charlotte / Raleigh (last two unlikely if they're next to get it, but I know people in both cities). Anything else and I'd have to see what the conditions are expected to be. Our Matthew plans last year worked out great and I'd just repeat that even though it wasn't much of a test with power being out only a few hours. We're in somewhat of a unique location in Charleston being in the city, on ground that is out of the 100 year floodplain and the house elevated a few feet more, and no trees within striking distance no matter which way they fell. The house survived Gracie and Hugo with that one being the reason there are no more trees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 From @BenNollWeather Euro operational run on the west side of the ensemble member envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: From @BenNollWeather Euro operational run on the west side of the ensemble member envelope yep we might be entering the wind shield wiper phase in the models where they start going back and forth as they try to lock in on the strength and speed of the trough which is still 5-6 days out.....the GFS came left down the coast with its ens/op the euro went right up the coast or ots with its ens/ops....if they took a consensus right now and that was the eventual actual path ne SC and the entire eastern half at least of NC is in big trouble.....really though after day 7 this thing is a fuster cluck in the models....I would love for the models to lock in on a OTS track this far out and take landfall off the table, this isnt anything anyone should want to hit, this wont be a Cat 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Odds(climate) still are in favor of an ots track and I'm on that train until it's proven wrong She has some major milestones to pass threw like moving a tad sw, then moving back west, then the move to the nw before anyone can zero in on any given area for a possible landfall It will be an interesting week ahead It's always good to make sure stuff is in working order and supplies are stocked. Especially if you didn't do it at the beginning of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, griteater said: From @BenNollWeather Euro operational run on the west side of the ensemble member envelope Surprising to see bulk of members recurve when I saw the EPS mean at day 7-8. Looked immenint....but guess not. EPS been ticking NE for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Exactly. I posted very early in this thread that I hoped each of you had a plan in place and stair stepped into it as we get closer. For most of us (inland) you should be preparing for service disruptions tied to extended power outages. I've already knocked out water / drinks, batteries and shelf stable foods. I have loaded my freezer with water panels which will add another 2-3 days to the life of my food that needs cold storage. I have knocked out gas for the generator and 2 propane tanks for the grill. This weekend I will clean yard debris and burn, trim any trees and bushes around the house and take inventory of loose items that need to be stored. If I lived near the coast I would already have a hotel room booked inland. Early bird gets the worm, and gets to live folks! Prep a little each day! Does anyone have a good Hugo storm impact recap that could be posted as a reminder for those who are too young to remember or those who are new to the area? I vividly remember Hugo. I was 12 years old when it hit. I live in Kernersville and the storms one of the nights were awful. We had one tornado warning after another. Me and my parents were hunkered down in the closet under the staircase with our dog, flashlights and a battery operated radio. A huge tree fell across our fence and into the neighbors roof. Smith Reynolds airport had several airplanes flipped over and it looked like a war zone around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Names like Hugo and Fran turn heads when mentioned in the Carolinas. Hazel will turn a whole different set of heads if mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: Names like Hugo and Fran turn heads when mentioned in the Carolinas. Hazel will turn a whole different set of heads if mentioned. Honestly if and its a giant IF it does hit it will closer to a Hazel or Floyd track most likely based on how the current models are running, if the bottom of the trough cuts off and flattens out and leaves that ULL over the Miss Valley then the Hugo/Fran type track would be much more likely....the GFS cuts it off over the GL which is why it captures the storm so far north and pulls it in....The Euro best I can tell on the maps I can see doesnt cut off at all and the storm rides up the west side of the ridge...really though right now anything past 5-7 days is still probably going to change several more times. The models do however agree its gonna get close to if not in the eastern Bahamas.....beyond that it will probably move around a few hundred miles ever run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Think of all the things we are hoping the models have right in this range (8-10 days), ridge strength and location, trough strength and location, how deep the storm is, does the trough cut off if so where and which way does that cut off move, whats if the trough is 12-24 hrs faster or slower than currently modeled....etc etc etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11AM NHC... Irma is a small hurricane, as observed by ship BATFR17 and the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass with tropical-storm-force winds extending out at most about 60 nm. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Solak said: 11AM NHC... Irma is a small hurricane, as observed by ship BATFR17 and the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass with tropical-storm-force winds extending out at most about 60 nm. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique. Hmm thats surprising....but most models dont really grow the storm until it gets further north above the Antilles..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looking at the vis. satellite the central dense overcast is very small. I wonder if that makes any difference in modeling verses a much larger system? I know that more intense hurricanes want to move polarward but do smaller area wise systems make a difference? Maybe not, an eyewall is an eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Trough pivoting faster and Irma chugging along faster. If anything the Euro has been the one trending towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma has begun loosing latitude this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, ragtop50 said: Names like Hugo and Fran turn heads when mentioned in the Carolinas. Hazel will turn a whole different set of heads if mentioned. Different canes mean different things in different parts of the state. Well, that was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS trying to come further west this run it looks like, friggen 897 at hr 162, slower this run as well so that probably why its able to try and get a bit further west...this run will destroy the OBX regardless.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: GFS trying to come further west this run it looks like, friggen 897 at hr 162, slower this run as well so that probably why its able to try and get a bit further west...this run will destroy the OBX regardless.... LOL, 897...GFS has it's Wheaties on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: LOL, 897...GFS has it's Wheaties on this run Yeah even a 100 mile miss would give OBX Cat 2 conditions on the "weak" side no less..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL, 897...GFS has it's Wheaties on this run That would probably scare the bejezzus out of everyone on the NC and SC coasts. And it places it just off Cape Hatteras on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The ensembles should have several west members it would seem. NW trend apply for canes too like it does in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: GFS trying to come further west this run it looks like, friggen 897 at hr 162, slower this run as well so that probably why its able to try and get a bit further west... pretty big change in the upper levels/upper trough over new england vs the prior runs. It wouldn't take much more trending with that upper trough to allow the gfs to increase the threat to the carolinas on that alone. I think what will be a big key will be just how far south she gets in the next few days....it looks like most of the off shore ensembles are also on the northern side the next 48 to 72 hours. If she goes on the south side of guidance the next few days, seems like odds might increase quite a bit to the southeast. as you guys mentioned above, the amount of real estate the models are showing irma covering is really impressive. I don't think i've ever seen such a huge satellite representation on the gfs as this one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: pretty big change in the upper levels/upper trough over new england vs the prior runs. It wouldn't take much more trending with that upper trough to allow the gfs to increase the threat to the carolinas on that alone. I think what will be a big key will be just how far south she gets in the next few days....it looks like most of the off shore ensembles are also on the northern side the next 48 to 72 hours. If she goes on the south side of guidance the next few days, seems like odds might increase quite a bit to the southeast. as you guys mentioned above, the amount of real estate the models are showing irma covering is really impressive. I don't think i've ever seen such a huge satellite representation on the gfs as this one before. There was a massive hurricane in the mid 90's that was forecast to make landfall on NC moving due west. He put the brakes on and turned back out last minute. It was Felix I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 CMC not to far off GFS track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS still about balls on the previous several runs up to landfall but then sharply west as it gets captured by the cutoff, though I bet the ENS are still mostly west/south of NC, the CMC for what it is worth trended back west and landfalled over Emerald Isle then up over eastern NC, it also isnt as strong with the storm probably "only" a lower end Cat 3 at landfall, still bad run for me IMBY if the CMC is right that has me almost in the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 West appears to be the trend today so far with the GFS and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Both GFS and CMC show an ULL over the OH-V, though in different spots, that helps pull Irma inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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