downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:46 PM, mackerel_sky said: I think they are done with recon flights. Read on another board. Once it landfalls, ( key west area) they stop recon flights Expand Recon in it right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:50 PM, mackerel_sky said: It's awesome outside ! Winds ripping out of the NE, milky clouds getting thicker, if it was 40 degrees colder , I'd be waiting on my 34 degrees and rain storm! On an Irma note, with the southern eyewall getting raggedy, all the strongest winds and rains are on the N/ NE side, that's why the crazy gusts and rains have NGa/W upstate in their sights! Expand Yeah it feels great! Those models busted hard with the RI stuff, just like the do showing snow for us in winter. So this is a dumb question, but hitting the Keys counts as an official US landfall, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:53 PM, Cold Rain said: Yeah it feels great! Those models busted hard with the RI stuff, just like the do showing snow for us in winter. So this is a dumb question, but hitting the Keys counts as an official US landfall, right? Expand Yes! First time in history , I think, that two cat 4's have hit the US in 1 season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:53 PM, Cold Rain said: Yeah it feels great! Those models busted hard with the RI stuff, just like the do showing snow for us in winter. So this is a dumb question, but hitting the Keys counts as an official US landfall, right? Expand Yes it officially landfalled on the Keys.....and will again somewhere on Florida SW coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:51 PM, downeastnc said: Recon in it right now..... Expand Oops! My bad! Its definitely moving NNW now! Paralleling the FL coastline! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:56 PM, mackerel_sky said: Yes! First time in history , I think, that two cat 4's have hit the US in 1 season! Expand This isnt a Cat 4 at all.....when they go back and look at it it will be a Cat 3 and then only barely....widespread Cat 1 conditions with a very small area of Cat 3 conditions MAYBE on the east side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:58 PM, mackerel_sky said: Oops! My bad! Its definitely moving NNW now! Paralleling the FL coastline! Expand Yeah if Irma was a superhero her special ability would be to avoid land lol....still she will drag the eastern side right up the coast and it will basically do the same as Cuba did....sucks for the Naples/Ft Myers area, they really want a east wobble here soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:58 PM, downeastnc said: This isnt a Cat 4 at all.....when they go back and look at it it will be a Cat 3 and then only barely....widespread Cat 1 conditions with a very small area of Cat 3 conditions MAYBE on the east side.... Expand It was officially , when it hit this AM in the keys somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Naples gusting to 65 mph now so its all down hill from here....if anywhere on mainland Florida is going to experience sustained Cat 2 or higher conditions its gonna be that area....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:05 PM, mackerel_sky said: It was officially , when it hit this AM in the keys somewhere Expand For now you are correct....thats why I qualified my statement by saying when they go back and look at it...they usually do a good job figuring out what the winds and conditions actually where.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ^ Thanks guys. So a Cat 4 and a "Cat 4*" <wink wink>. Still not a bad tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 3:58 PM, downeastnc said: This isnt a Cat 4 at all.....when they go back and look at it it will be a Cat 3 and then only barely....widespread Cat 1 conditions with a very small area of Cat 3 conditions MAYBE on the east side.... Expand I don't know, both eyewall drops on this recon mission had winds supporting cat 4 at some point in the drop (1 on surface (129kts), both above surface (141kts and 137kts)). In addition I think there was a 121kt FL wind near landfall and a 110kt SFMR (admittedly questionable) near landfall. And I mean there weren't many reporting stations in the max winds so getting a 120mph gust measurement on the north side of an island isn't particularly unusual for a 130mph landfall. I think there's enough evidence although I'll agree it's a relatively small area with the highest winds and Irma has been unable to get those winds to the surface most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Breaking Irma news: Kenny Chesney's house was destroyed by Irma on the US Virgin Islands ! Winds gusting to around 30mph already here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, Dunkman said: I don't know, both eyewall drops on this recon mission had winds supporting cat 4 at some point in the drop (1 on surface, both above surface). In addition I think there was a 121kt FL wind near landfall and a 110kt SFMR (admittedly questionable) near landfall. And I mean there weren't many reporting stations in the max winds so getting a 120mph gust measurement on the north side of an island isn't particularly unusual for a 130mph landfall. I think there's enough evidence although I'll agree it's a relatively small area with the highest winds and Irma has been unable to get those winds to the surface most of the time. Expand In Isabel I was in the SW eyewall, the plane in the storm had FL winds over me in the 120knt range we peaked gusted to 55 mph in Isabel.... This was the best uncontaminated drop for the surface I could find so far...so Cat 3 for sure but the one I saw for 140+ mph at the surface was suspect...which wouldnt qualify it for a Cat 4. Guess it will all shake out in the after action reports....its really not going to matter to the Naples area what we call it huh....should be bad there Time: 13:38:00Z Coordinates: 24.833N 81.350W Acft. Static Air Press: 697.8 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,599 m (8,527 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 940.0 mb (27.76 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 158° at 82 kts (From the SSE at 94.4 mph) Air Temp: 15.4°C* (59.7°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 90 kts (103.6 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 105 kts (120.8 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 29 mm/hr (1.14 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ATL East wind sustained at 26 G35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, mackerel_sky said: Breaking Irma news: Kenny Chesney's house was destroyed by Irma on the US Virgin Islands ! Winds gusting to around 30mph already here! Expand Watch for flurries later, when that cold HP pushes Irma west of you!!! Be careful Mack, You might get a Tornado for real ! Keep us posted way up here in the northern parts.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:09 PM, mackerel_sky said: Breaking Irma news: Kenny Chesney's house was destroyed by Irma on the US Virgin Islands ! Winds gusting to around 30mph already here! Expand He may have the funds to build back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 looking at radar etc you would never guess that was the center of a 934 mb storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:47 PM, downeastnc said: looking at radar etc you would never guess that was the center of a 934 mb storm..... Expand It seems very one sided. Virtually nothing on the southwest radar returns from either KBYX or KAMX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:47 PM, downeastnc said: looking at radar etc you would never guess that was the center of a 934 mb storm..... Expand She's deep man. Presentation isn't going to matter inland. That low pressure and size of her windfield spells big trouble for downed trees. I had 60mph sustained winds with a gust over 80 in Opal. I don't quite see that here but the 35-45mph sustained with gusts to close to 65-70 is still going to cause a lot of damage to trees inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 A bunch of storm chasers are in the Marco Island and Naples area so hopefully we will get good data from them if Irma makes landfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 4:52 PM, LithiaWx said: She's deep man. Presentation isn't going to matter inland. That low pressure and size of her windfield spells big trouble for downed trees. I had 60mph sustained winds with a gust over 80 in Opal. I don't quite see that here but the 35-45mph sustained with gusts to close to 65-70 is still going to cause a lot of damage to trees inland. Expand What worries me is those winds are coming in on the heels of an extended, significant drought followed by a wet spring/summer, and we haven't had any major storms/ice storms to take down the weak trees in years. They can handle a few gusts to 50-60MPH, but multiple hours of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tampa Bay: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Live chaser cam from Marco Island should get some winds 90-100 sustained gusting to 110-120 possible... http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 6:20 PM, downeastnc said: Live chaser cam from Marco Island should get some winds 90-100 sustained gusting to 110-120 possible... http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Expand Yea I've been thinking for a while it's gonna go right over Marco or to the east at Dismal. Still generally heading northward more than west. Just over 81.7 or so now but general movement has been wobbling around 81.5 all day. It DOES look like its maybe starting more westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Probably getting gust to 80-100 already on that feed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like the western eyewall might be onshore by the time this is up by Cape Coral.....luckily the worst of the surge to the east of the center was in mostly wetlands with few if any people/structures....backside of Marco Island probably getting hit hard with surge now though......further up the coast the offshore winds is blowing everything out and hopefully since the backside is pretty weak there wont be a huge surge further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earendil Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 6:44 PM, downeastnc said: Looks like the western eyewall might be onshore by the time this is up by Cape Coral.....luckily the worst of the surge to the east of the center was in mostly wetlands with few if any people/structures....backside of Marco Island probably getting hit hard with surge now though......further up the coast the offshore winds is blowing everything out and hopefully since the backside is pretty weak there wont be a huge surge further north. Expand How wide is the eye? It's hard for me to tell looking at the radar images on my phone. I'm trying to get an idea of how close to my house this is going to end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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