Tyler Penland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Windfield is pretty huge, no surprise. Buoy north of Key West just picked up a gust to 74MPH. 64MPH in Miami. edit: Actually a mesonet reading from a lighthouse it seems, not a buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Last few frames of IR satellite. Looks to me if she finally stalled and hit a block. She may wobble but appears as if the def can't head further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, FLweather said: You are about 3 hours slow cold rain. Or 21 hours fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yeah plane finding surface winds averaging in the 50-60 mph range over the Key West area thats decent.....I am guessing they find winds 110-115 at the surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah plane finding surface winds averaging in the 50-60 mph range over the Key West area thats decent.....I am guessing they find winds 110-115 at the surface.... Yup. Last recon had decent enough speeds on the eastern eyewall (102kt at surface), and looking at AVN, etc, its looking a good bit more healthy. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 This drop was probably about 30 miles north of the center so it hasnt strengthened much or the highest winds are really contained right around the center at the moment we should have the first core pass in a few minutes.. Time: 02:27:00Z Coordinates: 23.850N 81.400W Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,901 m (9,518 ft)Extrap. Sfc. Press: 974.0 mb (28.77 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 50° at 74 kts (From the NE at 85.2 mph) Air Temp: 11.9°C (53.4°F) Dew Pt: 10.4°C (50.7°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 kts (86.3 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 58 kts (66.7 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (0.12 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks pretty steady state so far. Pressure should be the same with 931 extrap. 106kts FL and 96 SFMR in NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Peak drop on the way in found 110 at the surface and FL at 122 so she is a bit stronger than earlier pressure looks like 930ish....which is ridiculous given the winds...if she finds a way to get it together Cat 4 should be easy..hurricane force winds are also only out 25 miles or so from the center to the NW me: 02:33:00Z Coordinates: 23.567N 81.183W Acft. Static Air Press: 694.6 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,682 m (8,799 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 943.7 mb (27.87 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 34° at 90 kts (From the NNE/NE at 103.6 mph) Air Temp: 14.4°C (57.9°F) Dew Pt: 14.3°C (57.7°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 94 kts (108.2 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 96 kts (110.5 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (0.16 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 She is creeping now. May turn on her self a couple times before actually heading N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 This NAM 12K run seems more likely to me...maybe its just the recent motion fooling me... it seems to fit the look of the WV more so than up the west coast to Tampa...then again every time I think that she goes west more....I wouldnt even be surprised if she was a little east of this NAM track... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017091000&fh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Well the NHC finally went ahead and lowered the wind forecast...basically keeps it at 120-125 the rest of the way in....she probably will catch back up to those kind of speeds overnight....you can almost read between the lines here to them wondering WTF she isnt going north already.... "Because of Irma's hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little left of the previous one." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You can tell that she is getting her stuff together. The center of circulation has seemingly cleared out. Still a long way to go. Hopefully she keeps at this pace or runs into shear and further weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Probably a dumb question, especially since none of the models show it, but how long would it have to stall in order to start picking up easterly motion instead of west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Opal was only a cat 3 when she hit the gulf coast and raced north. For the inland threat her being car 4 or a strong 2 at LF is t going to make a ton of difference if she's hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Ser Pounce said: Probably a dumb question, especially since none of the models show it, but how long would it have to stall in order to start picking up easterly motion instead of west? I wonder the same thing....problem is she is STILL drifting west, hell she almost kinda went SW a frame there....so who the hell knows at this point....she has a weakness to her north but that S/W dropping south over MS/AL is suppose to start her NNW then pull her more west once she gets NE of the ULL dropping into the GOM.....I think it has to do with her wind field interacting with Cuba it kind of anchors her for lack of a better term. The latest NAM was a bit more NNE in the short term into Florida proper then up the state instead of offshore, thats best case really as she comes in over the everglades...and her core of highest winds is pretty small at the moment. here is the WV loop you can see the S/W dropping in but like you when I look at this loop you sure would think she would wanna go more east... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I dont understand NHC path westward. She can't go much further. Agree met fan she getting better orgizaned. But atm she wobbling. When will she go north? I just don't see her hiring Tampa. Just a matter of time before due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Eyewall seems to be coming together a bit better on radar the last few frames. If she can keep that trend going strengthening will come easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Tyler Penland said: Eyewall seems to be coming together a bit better on radar the last few frames. If she can keep that trend going strengthening will come easier. She just took some dryer air into the core though so lets see how she mixes it out, or if she can....this will happen more and more probably as she moves NW, you can see it on the loop come in and hit the east side of the core....the sudden warming of the eyewall on the east side then it rotates to the north side making the eye look oblonged looking..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: She just took some dryer air into the core though so lets see how she mixes it out, or if she can....this will happen more and more probably as she moves NW, you can see it on the loop come in and hit the east side of the core....the sudden warming of the eyewall on the east side then it rotates to the north side making the eye look oblonged looking..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html Yeah, the warm water can only do so much when dry air is being sucked in constantly 0z GFS tanks the pressure overnight down to 908mb overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I don't remember the last tropical storm watch for mby. I'm preparing for some power outages for sure. Tropical Storm Watch Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 44 National Weather Service Peachtree City GA AL112017 1134 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 GAZ043-101145- /O.EXA.KFFC.TR.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Douglas- 1134 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Watch means Tropical storm wind conditions are possible somewhere within this area and within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Douglasville * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Monday afternoon until early Tuesday morning - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for strong tropical storm force wind of 58 to 73 mph. - To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of significant wind impacts. Efforts should now be underway to secure all properties. - Dangerous wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter may result in injury. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for minor flooding where peak rainfall totals are near amounts conducive for localized flash flooding and rapid inundation. - To be safe, prepare for the potential of limited flooding rain impacts. - Localized flooding is possible. If flood related watches and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: None - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning need not include a threat for tornadoes. Showers and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds may still occur. - Little to no preparations needed to guard against tropical tornadoes. - Ensure readiness for the next tropical tornado event. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency - http://ready.gov/hurricanes - Local weather conditions and forecasts: - http://weather.gov/atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Its possible that she bombs like the GFS has but the overall structure away from the core says that the wind field is to large and static, there is little difference at the surface between 80 miles from the center and 20 miles form the center....so thats not normal and it makes it hard for her to tighten up her wind field....its like a figure skater with heavy weights in her hand spinning she wants to pull her hands in but it takes a lot of energy to do it, Irma has a huge uniform wind field spinning slowly around her and it takes time and energy for her to get that gradient back..... but if she can manage it she will spin her ass off with the pressure that low. Even then I think any crazy high winds will be in a very small area right on the core....lots of gust into the low 100's possible though over a fairly large area....if she drags the east side up the coast onshore expect Florida to do the same thing Cuba did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Hard to say! Still wobbling or the last couple of frames. NNW instead of NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 More details Hurricane Local Statement Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 44 GAZ025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-101200- Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 44 National Weather Service Peachtree City GA AL112017 1154 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 This product covers NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA **Tropical Storm Watch Now In Effect For Portions of North and All of Central Georgia** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baldwin, Barrow, Carroll, Clarke, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Glascock, Gwinnett, Haralson, Jackson, Jefferson, Jones, Madison, Monroe, Morgan, Newton, North Fulton, Oconee, Oglethorpe, Paulding, Rockdale, South Fulton, Walton, Washington, and Wilkes * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baldwin, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Carroll, Chattahoochee, Clarke, Cobb, Crawford, Crisp, DeKalb, Dodge, Dooly, Douglas, Emanuel, Glascock, Gwinnett, Haralson, Harris, Houston, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Jones, Laurens, Macon, Madison, Marion, Monroe, Montgomery, Morgan, Muscogee, Newton, North Fulton, Oconee, Oglethorpe, Paulding, Peach, Pulaski, Rockdale, Schley, South Fulton, Stewart, Sumter, Talbot, Taylor, Telfair, Toombs, Treutlen, Twiggs, Walton, Washington, Webster, Wheeler, Wilcox, Wilkes, and Wilkinson * STORM INFORMATION: - About 740 miles south-southeast of Atlanta GA or about 660 miles south-southeast of Columbus GA - 23.5N 81.0W - Storm Intensity 120 mph - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 6 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Hurricane Irma continues as a major hurricane, centered just north of the coast of Cuba. Official National Hurricane Center track has Irma starting its track northward and strengthening slightly before making landfall along the west coast of Florida. The storm will then pick up speed as it continues north into portions of south central Georgia as a weakening category one hurricane. As it moves into the local area, portions of the Central Georgia can expect tropical storm force winds beginning late Sunday night with North Georgia seeing these winds by Monday morning. During the day Monday, the greatest impacts will be felt with winds increasing to 40 to 50 mph with gusts as high as 70 mph along and east of the center of the storm track. Because of the wet spring and early summer, the forecasted wind speeds will easily bring trees down across the area which will also lead to widespread power outages. Residents should be prepared in some cases to be without power for several days and stock up on supplies accordingly. Tropical storm force winds are expected to move out of the area late Monday night. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across portions of North and Central Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across portions of North and Central Georgia. * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across portions of North and Central Georgia. Potential impacts include: - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited impacts across portions of North and Central Georgia. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency Supplies Kit is stocked and ready. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties which must be taken into account. When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on creating an emergency plan see ready.ga.gov - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Peachtree City GA around 530 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 NE Quad so a legit Cat 3 although barely....might get a bit higher drop in the next update this one was probably 10-15 miles from the center.... Time: 04:07:00Z Coordinates: 23.733N 80.900W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.8 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,740 m (8,990 ft) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 146° at 106 kts (From the SE/SSE at 122.0 mph) Air Temp: 8.7°C* (47.7°F*) Dew Pt: -* Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 110 kts (126.6 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 97 kts (111.6 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 43 mm/hr (1.69 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Much better in the NE eyewall but the rest of the storm is lacking so we will see if she can get the core worked out..unless they got the FL and SFMR numbers backwards lol ( they didnt) Time: 04:09:00Z Coordinates: 23.667N 80.983W Acft. Static Air Press: 697.3 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,632 m (8,635 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 944.8 mb (27.90 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153° at 87 kts (From the SSE at 100.1 mph) Air Temp: 12.1°C* (53.8°F*) Dew Pt: -*Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 90 kts (103.6 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 109 kts (125.4 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Interesting fact about this watch. NWS also says upgrade to warning likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pretty much due north towards Monroe county FL? East of Naples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 GFS BUFKIT has 76kts wind at ATL Monday LOL. RGEM and NAM more logically at 45-50kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The 00z Euro brushes Tampa Bay and makes landfall south of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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