10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces.... That would be a jog. It's moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 TOG in Florida, thats gonna be the big issue tonight..live coverage http://www.wpbf.com/nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces....or is the path that mimics the coast almost perfectly just insane coincidence. I've actually wondered the same. Is the eye just wobbling along trying to remain over water, with the coast acting like a wall of sorts? It seems to have wobbled west in the latest frames (and maybe a touch SOUTH), to my eye, just following along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This is gonna be bad for the Keys. I hate to see what it will look like in 24 hours. Pressure dropping with warmer waters ahead spells BIG trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, 10below said: That's a wobble my friend. It has not turned SW. You're getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma is a long ways south and west. It does make you wonder if she could end up west of Key West even. However Irma looks to become entrained by the encroaching trough at any time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9Location: 23.4°N 80.8°WMoving: NW at 9 mphMin pressure: 932 mbMax sustained: 135 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Irma is a long ways south and west. It does make you wonder if she could end up west of Key West even. However Irma looks to become entrained by the encroaching trough at any time now. I have been thinking the same thing for a day and half now lol...water vapor loop is impressive she really bulled her way west a lot further than it looks like she should be able too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, 10below said: 7:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9Location: 23.4°N 80.8°WMoving: NW at 9 mphMin pressure: 932 mbMax sustained: 135 mph Thats different than the one I see....which is just the same strength as 5pm....this is not even remotely a 135 mph hurricane right now...or a 125 mph cane for that matter Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 700 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS... A NDBC C-MAN station on Molasses Reef recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 80.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES $$ Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I have been thinking the same thing for a day and half now lol...water vapor loop is impressive she really bulled her way west a lot further than it looks like she should be able too.... Same. Been rather boggled that she didn't get caught up in the thing earlier, but hey, that's hurricanes. They don't obey our wishes at all (My parents are up 90 miles north of Tampa about 40 miles inland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Thats different than the one I see....which is just the same strength as 5pm....this is not even remotely a 135 mph hurricane right now...or a 125 mph cane for that matter Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 700 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 ...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS... A NDBC C-MAN station on Molasses Reef recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 80.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES $$ Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde This is posted in the main thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Winds are 120mph at 8. Blending them back to reality after the chance to evacuate has passed I guess. (just kidding!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Buddy said: Same. Been rather boggled that she didn't get caught up in the thing earlier, but hey, that's hurricanes. They don't obey our wishes at all (My parents are up 90 miles north of Tampa about 40 miles inland) Warming cloud tops, she has trouble maintaining her flare ups....and a nice warming in the eastern quad not helping...not sure what that is in the center now might be a little dry air......she needs the storms on the SE side to wrap the center....regardless though this is not the behavior of a healthy hurricane....I am surprised she has kept her pressure so low...and honestly her radar presentation isnt horrible all things considered if anything the IEW has reformed a bit keeping the dual eyes going and this also will prevent her from gaining much ground....that and the entire bottom half of the eye/core is over Cuba.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 Location: 23.3°N 80.8°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 932 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like the turn to the north is finally about to commence for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like the turn to the north is finally about to commence for real. yeah for the 4th time in the last 6 hrs lol........I wouldnt be surprised if she is east of track once she gets going north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, 10below said: Bro, you have covered your ass for every possible track. West, East, TS, Cat 1, Cat 4, landfall in Mexico, etc etc etc. Come on man. This is getting out of hand. Nobody should be subjected to this garbage. Downeast in particular is a great poster who has proven over and over again he adds value to this forum. Please just stop engaging him, you need to agree to disagree and move on. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 She is getting closer to merging the eyes this will be a plus for her and a negative for Florida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: You're getting close. done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Time to sound the alarm for the Big Bend area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 HMON showing sub 900 at landfall, GFS just above 900. Curious to see where it actually is at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Snovary said: HMON showing sub 900 at landfall, GFS just above 900. Curious to see where it actually is at that time. JB is expecting a 25-35mb drop. That would put it in the 910's I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Time to sound the alarm for the Big Bend area. A few days ago I was fearing an eastward trend. Boy do I feel silly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: done Thanks. I'm distracted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 IEW about to go! Winds up 5 mph to 125 at 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I just got back from a trip up 75 north from about 20 miles south of ATL. I got goosebumps realizing there were more FL tags than GA tags on I-75 north. Just knowing many of them fled their homes was a scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, jburns said: Thanks. I'm distracted today. Thank you both. No, seriously, I mean really thank you both for bailing this thread out. That was annoying as crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You are about 3 hours slow cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, superjames1992 said: Time to sound the alarm for the Big Bend area. I HATE the potentialities for the FL panhandle, but, well, I might sleep tonight, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Gusting to 65 in the Vaca Key thats pretty decent the center is probably less than 100 miles from there. Next plane should see if she has gotten any stronger soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.