FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Downeast she is free from Cuba been so the last hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 5pm says winds still 125 Cat 3 pressure at 933 moving wnw at 9 Probably the smart move even though there was not a single drop over 101 mph at the surface so far....still wind at FL are strong and the NE wind field is large...she needs to get rid of whats left of the IEW and then let the cards fall where they may, if she can contract the wind field and tighten up the OEW she can get 140 again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, FLweather said: Downeast she is free from Cuba been so the last hour or two Hurricanes are more than just the eye.....and the southern part of the eye is still onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Probably the smart move even though there was not a single drop over 101 mph at the surface so far....still wind at FL are strong and the NE wind field is large...she needs to get rid of whats left of the IEW and then let the cards fall where they may, if she can contract the wind field and tighten up the OEW she can get 140 again.... She's had it for the looongest time Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS? Irma has done her best to maintain these entities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: She's had it for the looongest time Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS? Irma has done her best to maintain these entities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 @snowgoose you think so? So you saying if this storm strengthens it would effectively strengthen the ridge above the storm to shunt off the shear to a certain extent? What about the trough and high pessure above to coexist as to act as a catalyst for further strengthening for a board scale not cat scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: She's had it for the looongest time Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS? Irma has done her best to maintain these entities I watch this loop and I cant help but wonder if you guys may be more in the woods than you think.....or should I say as the NHC thinks http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Sorry guys. I've been off the grid since last night. I should have known if I didn't put 10below and downeast in their crates they would run all over the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: Sorry guys. I've been off the grid since last night. I should have known if I didn't put 10below and downeast in their crates they would run all over the thread. You hurt my feelings Burns I have been good I just dont deal with people saying stuff without backing it up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I watch this loop and I cant help but wonder if you guys may be more in the woods than you think.....or should I say as the NHC thinks http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html I'm as prepared as I can be. No mandatory evacuation on Lady's Island or St Helena Island so I'm probably going to stay. These little wobbles are killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 @ buckeye. There are no more wobbles. Its heading n to nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 her wind field is very flat,by that I mean there isnt a lot of difference between drops 40-50 miles from the center and the eyewall.........this will pose issues to her trying to ramp back up....if the IEW will just go away she has a chance but until that happens the wind field wont tighten and even with the lower pressure she will struggle to get back to her former glory. This drop is close to the center based on pressure and in the eyewall for sure and well if anything it looks like her winds continue to maintain at best on the west side.....cloud tops are warming a bit as well. Should have a center fix in a second.... Time: 21:40:00Z Coordinates: 23.400N 80.867W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.8 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,718 m (8,917 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 949.2 mb (28.03 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 23° at 85 kts (From the NNE at 97.8 mph) Air Temp: 15.9°C (60.6°F) Dew Pt: 14.0°C (57.2°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 86 kts (99.0 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 90 kts (103.6 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (0.24 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pressure now down to 934. This is one is easily back up to a Cat 4 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Anyone have another source for the dropsonde data for Irma Mission 27? There are several dropsondes locations on tropicaltidbits but no dropsonde graphs (or does it just take longer for them to gen?) Tried three web browsers some of them have the image place holders and 404. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 I use the google earth overlay its slower than realtime but its point and click and easy to use.... Has anyone ever heard of a storm with pressures in the low 930's that only has 100 mph max winds...might be the first time its ever been documented.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Gonna need an obs page for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: Gonna need an obs page for this one. Places in south Florida gusting to 50-70 already in the heavier storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: Places in south Florida gusting to 50-70 already in the heavier storms..... The wind field on Irma has got to be quite wide. With pressure that low the winds are spread out pretty far if Irma really is only a cat 2 right now. The NWS wouldn't keep Irma a 3 unless she really was. There must be higher winds getting picked up somewhere for the justification of the 5pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I just pulled my official rain gauge out of storage. It's up and ready to record some data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 storms firing all around the eyewall; she's about to crank it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Several bouys are going up pretty regularlyhttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=mlrf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDThttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=vcaf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: The wind field on Irma has got to be quite wide. With pressure that low the winds are spread out pretty far if Irma really is only a cat 2 right now. The NWS wouldn't keep Irma a 3 unless she really was. There must be higher winds getting picked up somewhere for the justification of the 5pm update. The highest surface wind the plane currently out there has found is 107 mph...hell even the FL winds are done quite a bit from earlier today.....its a Cat 2....barely. That said with the pressure as low as it is it could recover quite a bit and quickly so the NHC is smart in leaving it as a Cat 3 since chances are it will be that when it gets to Florida....and calling it what it is right now does nothing but possibly prevent people from doing what they need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, Buddy said: I'm just getting back into this stuff (weather in colorado is boring, but back east now), got a link? Several bouys are going up pretty regularlyhttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=mlrf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDThttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=vcaf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ have to have google earth ( but who doesnt ) and click on google earth on the right side under live atl recon mapping then click at the bottom when it pulls it up to load it then use the drop down on the left to highlight which mission you wanna see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Governor Scott just got an update and said winds are up to 135mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, 10below said: Governor Scott just got an update and said winds are up to 135mph now. He would be wrong.....you know you can check this stuff for yourself....there is a actual hurricane hunter out there right now checking the storm out. The fastest wind it has found so far at the surface is 107 mph. Heck I cant even find FL winds over 120 mph....this is the actual data and its what it shows....maybe he means they expect it to be a 135 mph when it hits Florida that makes much more sense. Time: 20:03:00Z Coordinates: 23.483N 80.467W Acft. Static Air Press: 695.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,735 m (8,973 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 950.6 mb (28.07 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 83° at 88 kts (From the E at 101.3 mph) Air Temp: 15.3°C (59.5°F) Dew Pt: 14.3°C (57.7°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 93 kts (107.0 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr) Here is the actual vortex data message from the last vortex...this was maybe 30-45 mins ago the max surface wind on that leg was lower than the previous vortex even though the pressure was down a MB. D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 32° at 103kts (From the NNE at ~ 118.5mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Late day image. Look at those immense outer spiral features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces....or is the path that mimics the coast almost perfectly just insane coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 48 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I just pulled my official rain gauge out of storage. It's up and ready to record some data. I'm about to put mine away! Not gonna need it for 1 feeder band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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