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Hurricane Irma

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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10below

10below

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She will be a TS by then if she keeps her center on the coast....her only chance is to move N earlier than modeled, like turn right now lol...she just needs to get away from Cuba with her inner core mostly intact and not slowed way down and the speed in the inner core is coming down fast. The newest center fix shows she went almost due west the last hr or so and is about to be fully onshore...she will have to go NNW from here to avoid a landfall bringing the entire center ashore. 

TS huh? I just can't with you, bro. She is offshore and headed straight for the Keys and then probably Tampa.

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Tony Sisk

Tony Sisk

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Posted

Two things we are learning about Irma.

not one model has forecasted her right. Despite every model forecasting a hard turn north...she keeps outperforming. At this rate, she may make landfall in New Orleans.

no one expected Cuba to tear this storm up...but that is happening. That doesn't mean it won't re-strengthen...but the high terrain has done considerable damage to Irma. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Just now, 10below said:

TS huh? I just can't with you, bro. She is offshore and headed straight for the Keys and then probably Tampa.

IF she stays over Cuba for another 12+ hrs she will be greatly diminished.....even now there is a very small area of Cat 3 conditions but for the most part she is a 80-100 mph cane at best outside those areas...IF she does get away from Cuba with her inner core intact then she may get back to a Cat 4 but it will be as a much smaller storm. You and I have very different definitions of "offshore" you do understand that hurricanes are more than just the center right? This doesnt mean she cant recover some but that also doesnt mean she wont be a TS/weak Cat 1  in 12 hrs if she stays over Cuba. 

This is the peak surface wind the plane found in the north side after the last vortex on the outbound leg.....she is dying.....the more she loses now the harder it will be for her to recover...she has already pretty much shed everything but her inner core....she is fighting it I will give her that but she cant do this for 12 more hrs she needs to go north and soon.

Time:    14:06:00Z
Coordinates:    22.917N 79.500W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,695 m (8,842 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    951.3 mb (28.10 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 121° at 91 kts (From the ESE at 104.7 mph)
Air Temp:    14.7°C (58.5°F)
Dew Pt:    14.7°C (58.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    95 kts (109.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    93 kts (107.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    18 mm/hr (0.71 in/hr)

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Two things we are learning about Irma.

not one model has forecasted her right. Despite every model forecasting a hard turn north...she keeps outperforming. At this rate, she may make landfall in New Orleans.

no one expected Cuba to tear this storm up...but that is happening. That doesn't mean it won't re-strengthen...but the high terrain has done considerable damage to Irma. 

Silly post that's really not worth responding to but  There were plenty of model runs, including the euro and ukmet, and their ensembles, that showed cuba landfall...however most recent forecasts though it would stay just north of cuba or along the coast..and that's where it's at. It has been repeated over and over and over and over again that when it was crucial when that right turn would occur because of obvious reasons of the impact of either the east or west coast of florida. We simply do not have the ability to pin down exactly when such turns happen  days in advance. It will happen shortly  as we can already see the ridge breaking down and the trough coming in. To say it could go to new orleans is absurd. 

 

 

25 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

NWS making references to Opal.  They think TS winds in Atlanta with gusts to 70.

 

Atlanta and other areas of GA are inching towards disaster.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/906473468916404224/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Fffc%2F

yeah it seems everyone, including local media, is catching on to the threat of especially high winds here in georgia. The 0z euro was the highest yet..showing the highest winds yet..80 to 90mph winds in the metro. 

20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

IF she stays over Cuba for another 12+ hrs she will be greatly diminished.....even now there is a very small area of Cat 3 conditions but for the most part she is a 80-100 mph cane at best outside those areas...IF she does get away from Cuba with her inner core intact then she may get back to a Cat 4 but it will be as a much smaller storm. You and I have very different definitions of "offshore" you do understand that hurricanes are more than just the center right? This doesnt mean she cant recover some but that also doesnt mean she wont be a TS/weak Cat 1  in 12 hrs if she stays over Cuba. 

This is the peak surface wind the plane found in the north side after the last vortex on the outbound leg.....she is dying.....the more she loses now the harder it will be for her to recover...she has already pretty much shed everything but her inner core....she is fighting it I will give her that but she cant do this for 12 more hrs she needs to go north and soon.

Time:    14:06:00Z
Coordinates:    22.917N 79.500W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,695 m (8,842 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    951.3 mb (28.10 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 121° at 91 kts (From the ESE at 104.7 mph)
Air Temp:    14.7°C (58.5°F)
Dew Pt:    14.7°C (58.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    95 kts (109.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    93 kts (107.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    18 mm/hr (0.71 in/hr)

dude..c'mon you are starting to sound silly and borderline absurd now. There is virtually zero chance it will be a ts before it leaves the vicinity of cuba. In fact, it's not likely it will even go inland..the eye itself is still on or just off the coast and right now there is no indication it's going inland. And she sure as hell isn't "dying".

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10below

10below

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

He's a good guy.  He know his tropical stuff too.  I've got no idea why he's seeing what he's seeing and how he sees the storm differently than others.  It's honestly pretty surprising. 

I guess. I mean Irma is clearly moving wnw now and when she pulls away from Cuba she will explode again and this guy is talking about Cat 1 and TS. WTF?:lmao:

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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1 minute ago, 10below said:

I guess. I mean Irma is clearly moving wnw now and when she pulls away from Cuba she will explode again and this guy is talking about Cat 1 and TS. WTF?:lmao:

If she were to go onshore farther for another 12-24 hours I think she would be pretty beaten down.  That said the guidance doesn't suggest that outcome imo.  

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Just now, Lookout said:

 

dude..c'mon you are starting to sound silly now. There is virtually zero chance it will be a ts before it leaves the vicinity of cuba. In fact, it's not likely it will even go inland..the eye itself is still on or just off the coast and right now there is no indication it's going inland. And she sure as hell isn't "dying". 

I guess it depends on what you are comparing it too, she is nothing even close to what she was 24 or even 12 hrs ago....the plane is barely finding Cat 3 winds anywhere and the majority of the winds even close to the center are Cat 2 or less.....so pick whatever word you want, dying, degrading, weakening etc.....but that is what is happening to Irma in a big way right now, 

This doesnt mean she cant/wont recover, she still is managing to keep her inner core firing strong storms so that's a sign if she does get free from Cuba she can recover.... if you are 30-40 miles from the center of this storm right now you are in Cat 1/2 conditions in all quads according to the HH drops. She needs to go north now, 6-10 more hrs of what she is doing now will only hurt her more....if she gets her inner core disrupted that would almost kill any chances she recovers....she may end up being more like a Charley with a small compact area of really high winds if she can keep her core intact. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

IR presentation has definitely become more impressive the last little bit.  Seems like the weakening has halted for a while.

Yeah inner core holding its own..... she needs to move almost due NNW at this point to get away from the coast though....and if she does do that kind of motion I wonder how much east she can actually be when she gets to Florida....she is just now getting south of Miami. Its crazy watching the center just follow along the coastline exactly....still 6-10 more hrs this close to land and she will only weaken more....

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah inner core holding its own..... she needs to move almost due NNW at this point to get away from the coast though....and if she does do that kind of motion I wonder how much east she can actually be when she gets to Florida....she is just now getting south of Miami. Its crazy watching the center just follow along the coastline exactly....still 6-10 more hrs this close to land and she will only weaken more....

Wobbles will start to matter.  If she pulls off the coast just a bit it could be off to the races. If she wobbles south or stays west then she will continue to struggle against Cuba.  Unless she really slams Cuba I fear the core is going to be just fine and will take advantage of low shear and jet fuel ocean water for a period of 12 hours or so. 

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

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1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

Atlanta and other areas of GA are inching towards disaster.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/906473468916404224/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Fffc%2F

I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster.  There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster?  C'mon.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Just now, audioguy3107 said:

I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster.  There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster?  C'mon.

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

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Dunkman

Dunkman

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Wow I missed some fireworks while on my long run this morning. Not going to rehash things except to say I'm firmly on team downeast here. Storm has that asymmetrical look they get on the east coast a lot and max winds (that I've ever seen) with that kind of structure are like 120ish. I suppose there's some small chance it can rebuild its structure but that seems like a daunting task. It has 24 hours, shear will be increasing, and outside of the inner core the west side of the storm is basically missing.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

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5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

I know, I was here, I guess it depends on what you're definition of disaster is.  Disaster to me is Hurricane Katrina, Moore, Oklahoma, Harvey, Sandy, et. al.  I don't think the metro Atlanta community considers Opal a disaster, heck, I'd be willing to bet if you asked 100 people if they remember Hurricane Opal's remnants and what happened, most couldn't.  Anyhoo, what we should be paying attention to here in N. Georgia is how far north Irma can make it before going on shore......the more west, the less time for weakening as it moves into our area.  If you take a look at NHC's 11 AM track, it's not inconceivable that Irma could stay over the Gulf until she's north of Tampa!

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

That happened up here too. 

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