Hurricane Irma

[Cold Rain]

She is turning into a hot mess.  We might see her degrade all the way down to a cat 1 if she stays near the coast for 12 more hours.  The entire state of Florida will have evacuated for a routine cat 1/2 storm.

[10below]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

She is turning into a hot mess.  We might see her degrade all the way down to a cat 1 if she stays near the coast for 12 more hours.  The entire state of Florida will have evacuated for a routine cat 1/2 storm.

Are you serious, Clarke?  This storm may well hit the Keys as a Cat 5.

[10below]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

She is turning into a hot mess.  We might see her degrade all the way down to a cat 1 if she stays near the coast for 12 more hours.  The entire state of Florida will have evacuated for a routine cat 1/2 storm.

A stupid post like this should get you banned. Unbelievable. WOW! 

[downeastnc]

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Not according to recon it's not a cat 4......still a dangerous storm

Those winds are only in the NE corner in a small area if at all as well, I imagine the south side is even lower than the NW side.  The plane just passed through the N side again and only found surface winds peaking around 110 mph....pressure up another few MB as well....hurricane cant hang out near land like this without losing their mojo. 

[Dunkman]

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

She is turning into a hot mess.  We might see her degrade all the way down to a cat 1 if she stays near the coast for 12 more hours.  The entire state of Florida will have evacuated for a routine cat 1/2 storm.

I'd be pretty shocked if this ends up hitting Florida as more than a cat 3 at this point. It usually takes storms a day or 2 to shake off a land interaction like this and Irma doesn't have that kind of time. 

As for the flaming up above, recon barely, and I mean barely supports a minimal cat 3 right now and the storm has at least 6 hours left of grinding against the Cuban coastline.

[downeastnc]

Just now, 10below said:

A stupid post like this should get you banned. Unbelievable. WOW! 

You are not paying attention to the DATA......or the NHC for that matter....this hurricane is rapidly slowing down, conditions are not that great after she leaves Florida there is a small window for her to restrengthen its looking more and more likely this will be a Cat 3 or less when it gets to Florida....

 

[10below]

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

You are not paying attention to the DATA......or the NHC for that matter....this hurricane is rapidly slowing down, conditions are not that great after she leaves Florida there is a small window for her to restrengthen its looking more and more likely this will be a Cat 3 or less when it gets to Florida....

 

Wanna bet? If this thing hit's Florida at anything less than a Cat 4 I will never post here again. Same for you.

[downeastnc]

Just now, 10below said:

Wanna bet? If this thing hit's Florida at anything less than a Cat 4 I will never post here again. Same for you.

LOL....really....she will be a Cat 1-2  with a jacked up rotation if she doesnt get away from land in the next 6-12 hrs...hurricane intensity is the hardest thing to forecast with any degree of skill, and its entirely possible that she could somehow make it back to 140+ mph before landfall but it is unlikely to happen based how long she has disrupted her core and the incoming shear. 

I have 8,000 post and have been a member of this forum for over 12 years do you really think I am going to quit posting here over a bet lol....grow up. 

[10below]

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

LOL....really....she will be a Cat 1-2  with a jacked up rotation if she doesnt get away from land in the next 6-12 hrs...hurricane intensity is the hardest thing to forecast with any degree of skill, and its entirely possible that she could somehow make it back to 140+ mph before landfall but it is unlikely to happen based how long she has disrupted her core and the incoming shear. 

I have 8,000 post and have been a member of this forum for over 12 years do you really think I am going to quit posting here over a bet lol....grow up. 

[frazdaddy]

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

LOL....really....she will be a Cat 1-2  with a jacked up rotation if she doesnt get away from land in the next 6-12 hrs...hurricane intensity is the hardest thing to forecast with any degree of skill, and its entirely possible that she could somehow make it back to 140+ mph before landfall but it is unlikely to happen based how long she has disrupted her core and the incoming shear. 

I have 8,000 quality posts and have been a member of this forum for over 12 years do you really think I am going to quit posting here over a bet lol....grow up. 

 

[Dunkman]

Irma really isn't gaining much latitude right now and part of the eye is threatening to come back ashore on Key West radar.

I do wonder exactly how much this weakening will help with the surge though, especially in the keys. I certainly expect a surge that's relatively stronger than the wind speeds but I'm not sure there's any good way to know really.

[franklin NCwx]

Does the 10 below mean you are 10 years below 18? Because you're sure acting like it. Give it a rest man!

[mackerel_sky]

Paging Lookout, for several reasons, but did you peek at the Euro from last night? If I'm reading the wind map right, you have around 92mph gusts and I'm still at 72mph!! 

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Does the 10 below mean you are 10 years below 18? Because you're sure acting like it. Give it a rest man!

Yeah, it's like Wilkesboro dude is back

[Cold Rain]

12 minutes ago, 10below said:

A stupid post like this should get you banned. Unbelievable. WOW! 

Settle down Beavis.  Give her 12 more hours along the coast of Cuba, and let's look at the recon data then.  If she emerges quickly, then she might get it together.  There is plenty of warm water ahead, as you say.  But a disrupted circulation is going to be hard to reorganize quickly into a high end major.  I don't honestly think it will be a cat 1 when it makes landfall in Fl, but it would not shock me at all if it hits as a high end cat 2, unless it gets away from Cuba soon.

[downeastnc]

7 minutes ago, 10below said:

Ok lets go over this, highest winds they are finding in the healthiest part of the storm is 110-120 mph, pressure is rising rather rapidly...the S and W sides are hammered and realistically are producing winds lower than 100 mph...all the convection is in the NE side......it will take Irma HOURS to recover her core....but she wont have that much time because shear is going to increase today and into tonight and screw up whatever chance she has to get stronger....she is in bad shape and getting worse every hr she spends near Cuba.....this is fact and while that doesnt mean she cant become a Cat 4 again its pretty darn unlikely at the rate things are going.

 

 

[frazdaddy]

My brother in law( my wifes brother) is in Ft. Lauderdale. Tried to get him to leave. Too much traffic. He will be sending me pics and video as long as he has service. I`ll post as I get them.

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Ok lets go over this, highest winds they are finding in the healthiest part of the storm is 110-120 mph, pressure is rising rather rapidly...the S and W sides are hammered and realistically are producing winds lower than 100 mph...all the convection is in the NE side......it will take Irma HOURS to recover her core....but she wont have that much time because shear is going to increase today and into tonight and screw up whatever chance she has to get stronger....she is in bad shape and getting worse every hr she spends near Cuba.....this is fact and while that doesnt mean she cant become a Cat 4 again its pretty darn unlikely at the rate things are going.

 

 

Good post.

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Good post.

Did I accidentally click on the main hurricane thread!?

[downeastnc]

This is the best drop I can find on the latest pass through  the better looking east side in the immediate eyewall, she is probably a Cat 2 right now.....

Time:    12:02:30Z
Coordinates:    22.683N 79.083W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,708 m (8,885 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    953.9 mb (28.17 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 93 kts (From the S at 107.0 mph)
Air Temp:    14.9°C (58.8°F)
Dew Pt:    14.9°C (58.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    95 kts (109.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    94 kts (108.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    62 mm/hr (2.44 in/hr)

 

Edit: found this one so make it a Cat 3 though this wind is very confined to the immediate eye wall. Drops 10 miles away are under 100 at the surface...

Time:    12:02:00Z
Coordinates:    22.683N 79.117W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.6 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,678 m (8,786 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    949.6 mb (28.04 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 84 kts (From the S at 96.7 mph)
Air Temp:    15.3°C (59.5°F)
Dew Pt:    15.3°C (59.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    89 kts (102.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 104 kts (119.7 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate:    18 mm/hr (0.71 in/hr)

[10below]

1 hour ago, 10below said:

Irma will restrengthen quickly once it moves north off the coast of Cuba. High SST, favorable 200mb jet entrance region, weak shear.

 

[downeastnc]

2 minutes ago, 10below said:

 

NHC says this...she has the next 12-18 hrs to get it together and while possible the longer she hangs out in Cuba the less likely that becomes....or she will come back as a very small tight cored cane that is much smaller than she is now...that about the only way she gets back to a 4/5

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits.  However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then.  The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida.  After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

[downeastnc]

The question is how much longer does she hug the coast, a lot of time the frictional interaction forces it to follow the coast....its pretty evident in how the center is able to stay just offshore without bringing the entire center in, if she had come straight in last night it would be way worse off even than it is now. Even now the coast takes a more north turn and if she doesnt move more NW soon she will take the center fully on land...and that will likely take her way down if she loses the NE corner. 

Also I wonder what her becoming weaker and losing a lot of her size will mean to her track downstream....or will it change anything at all...

[packbacker]

26 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The question is how much longer does she hug the coast, a lot of time the frictional interaction forces it to follow the coast....its pretty evident in how the center is able to stay just offshore without bringing the entire center in, if she had come straight in last night it would be way worse off even than it is now. Even now the coast takes a more north turn and if she doesnt move more NW soon she will take the center fully on land...and that will likely take her way down if she loses the NE corner. 

Also I wonder what her becoming weaker and losing a lot of her size will mean to her track downstream....or will it change anything at all...

Also wonder if she can intensify quicker once away from Cuba...since losing some of her size.  

[downeastnc]

8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Also wonder if she can intensify quicker once away from Cuba...since losing some of her size.  

I think she could, she would have to be a very small compact cane, if she tries to reorganize the entire rotation she wont be able to but she could spin up a very small nasty core maybe...though she is in really rough shape even with her inner core. The HH is flying into the north side right now and the newest drops are 20 miles from the center and only have surface winds of 80 mph....bet pressure is up to 945-950. IF she can break free of Cuba and started heading north now that would be her best chance, you can see the shear to her west working its way in and I wonder if she doesnt turn and go more NE once she does start moving, its tough to see how she will go NW up the Florida west coast on the WV loops...there is also some really dry air over the NE GOM all these things make her getting back to a Cat 4/5 unlikely IMO maybe she can get back to 120-125 mph... 

 

[packbacker]

Just now, downeastnc said:

I think she could be she would be a very small compact cane, if she tries to reorganize the entire rotation she wont be able to but she could spin up a very small nasty core maybe...though she is in really rough shape even with her inner core. The HH is flying into the north side right now and the newest drops are 20 miles from the center and only have surface winds of 80 mph....bet pressure is up to 945-950. IF she can break free of Cuba and started heading north now that would be her best chance, you can see the shear to her west working its way in and I wonder if she doesnt turn and go more NE once she does start moving, its tough to see how she will go NW up the Florida west coast on the WV loops...there is also some really dry air over the NE GOM all these things make her getting back to a Cat 4/5 unlikely IMO maybe she can get back to 120-125 mph... 

 

Euro was further south than her location now but did keep it over Cuba until atleast 0z tonight.  I would expect her to keep bouncing off the coast until later tonight. She is really going to weaken more if so...

[downeastnc]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Euro was further south than her location now but did keep it over Cuba until atleast 0z tonight.  I would expect her to keep bouncing off the coast until later tonight. She is really going to weaken more if so...

She will be a TS by then if she keeps her center on the coast....her only chance is to move N earlier than modeled, like turn right now lol...she just needs to get away from Cuba with her inner core mostly intact and not slowed way down and the speed in the inner core is coming down fast. The newest center fix shows she went almost due west the last hr or so and is about to be fully onshore...she will have to go NNW from here to avoid a landfall bringing the entire center ashore. 

[Lookout]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Paging Lookout, for several reasons, but did you peek at the Euro from last night? If I'm reading the wind map right, you have around 92mph gusts and I'm still at 72mph!! 

First things first, folks need to chill and stay on topic. 

Second, yeah the euro was pretty ridicilous with it's winds across ga and the upstate. It was a few mb deeper entering the state which might be part of the reason. If it tracks further up the west coast, it seems certainly possible it will be a little deeper. 

 

16 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Euro was further south than her location now but did keep it over Cuba until atleast 0z tonight.  I would expect her to keep bouncing off the coast until later tonight. She is really going to weaken more if so...

I was going to say, as i just mentioned in the other thread, irma is currently further north than the 0z euro... the 0z euro actually had irma further inland into cuba and up to 951 mb.  Yet still manages to get it back to 929mb at landfall....so I think some are a bit too hasty in writing off it's potential to reorganize once it moves away from cuba. So  Irma should be in better shape than the euro has it when it starts moving away (assuming it doesn't take a hard hook inland the next few hours). That should be worrisome considering it deepens it 30mb before florida landfall. 

Fact is,  It takes perfect conditions to maintain a cat 4 or cat 5..even a high end cat 3 is hard...so it's no shock it's weakened...but to go so far as to say it's inner core will be disrupted as much as if it went across the island completely and barely be a cat 2 or 3 when gets to florida is a bit much i think.. We will see what they say at 11, but id be shocked if the nhc didn't still forecast it to be a cat 4 at landfall.  Every piece of guidance shows it restrengthening as well. 

[gman]

Is Irma really going to turn north? 

[mackerel_sky]

GFS has me with 40-50 mph gusts max, Euro has gusts to around 90mph, guess either way, Monday looks breezy!

Hope King is wrong this time!