JoshM Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Water and bread is out everywhere here! Is it gonna snow!? Same shi*, just different time of year. Someone gets screwed out of a storm. EDIT: Before anyone bashes me, I don't wish havoc on people. However, if it happens to come to MBY , bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Noticeable jog to the NW (from west) in latest satellite frames. Convection not as robust on the western flank of the eye at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like Irma making landfall in Cuba. But the last few frames of satelitte show the clouds starting to stretch more so to the north and south. She may have finally hit the brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 55 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Grit do you know how many hours she's been at 150 mph or greater, I'm thinking at least 84. Any idea about that record? Since 5AM Tues, so 90 hours as of 11PM tonight. Other records as of 11PM - https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Canadian also going east, almost into the upstate of SC @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: Canadian also going east, almost into the upstate of SC @ 72 Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 CMC @ 66, 30 knot sustained winds in the Piedmont of NC and upstate of SC. Can't see the gusts, but I bet they're 50-60 with that pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I think someone said it best the other day. "These giant storms make their own path". They run through troughs and follow the warm water til they hit a big enough chunk of land to make em fizzle out. Then the next one lines up as a patch of drizzle somewhere off the west African coast. Thats nature for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 CDO and high clouds really pushing off to the N and NW. Agree with Grit. But appears the turn has begun or will begin next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 FWIW, the HWRF east of its previous run, especially after landfall tracking through central FL to over near JAX/Baldwin at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Ukie is coming in around Ft Myers,up the west side of the Fla peninsula and into south central GA.Then up across Atlanta at 72-96.That's a big hit on Tampa if it comes up the coast. Euro up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Euro close to the Ukie,west side of Fla to south central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She's making the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She looks like cuba took a big toll on her. Her west side is all but gone. Eye even looked rough on the west with no deep convection out past the eyewall. I can't see how this is still a 155mph storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Wow, EPS is so far west. SE coast of FL would really be spared with this but yikes for w-FL and the panhandle. Is it done shifting west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, shaggy said: She looks like cuba took a big toll on her. Her west side is all but gone. Eye even looked rough on the west with no deep convection out past the eyewall. I can't see how this is still a 155mph storm. She looks strong as ever and will only get stronger before destroying southern Florida. Pray for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, 10below said: She looks strong as ever and will only get stronger before destroying southern Florida. Pray for them. She doesn't look as strong as ever. Ask Barbuda if she looks as good now as when she ripped them up. No way she is 155mph right now based off satellite imagery. Still.gonna be bad for Florida but not as bad as the Miami hit that was depicted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, shaggy said: She doesn't look as strong as ever. Ask Barbuda if she looks as good now as when she ripped them up. No way she is 155mph right now based off satellite imagery. Still.gonna be bad for Florida but not as bad as the Miami hit that was depicted earlier. You are wrong. This a strong Cat 4 storm with the potential to go to a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, shaggy said: She doesn't look as strong as ever. Ask Barbuda if she looks as good now as when she ripped them up. No way she is 155mph right now based off satellite imagery. Still.gonna be bad for Florida but not as bad as the Miami hit that was depicted earlier. Weaker but still solid and should ramp back up...110kt/937 at last recon. Euro has it Cuba until atleast 8pm tonight...hopefully it weakens more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She's made it onto long range Key West radar now. Looks to be turning a good bit to me. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: She's made it onto long range Key West radar now. Looks to be turning a good bit to me. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Yep. Warmer waters ahead too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Overnight Most recent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, Solak said: Overnight Most recent And headed for even warmer water. It's going to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Believe Irma will restrengthen quickly once it moves north off the coast of Cuba. High SST, favorable 200mb jet entrance region, weak shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 10below said: And headed for even warmer water. It's going to get stronger. Highest winds they are finding on any drop in the NE side is 120 mph....though it should recover some once it gets away from Cuba, but if it spends 12 more hrs right along the coast it will have her down to a Cat 1-2. Pressure will be slower to come up than winds will be to go down, so if she clear land soon the winds can catch back up to the pressure.....if her wind field spread out to much she will have trouble spinning that back up regardless of how low the pressure can get back down, it takes time for the winds to catch up to the pressure usually. look like she is going to follow the coastline, crazy how she turns just enough to keep the center from fully going ashore while following the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: Highest winds they are finding on any drop in the NE side is 120 mph....though it should recover some once it gets away from Cuba, but if it spends 12 more hrs right along the coast it will have her down to a Cat 1-2. Pressure will be slower to come up than winds will be to go down, so if she clear land soon the winds can catch back up to the pressure.....if her wind field spread out to much she will have trouble spinning that back up regardless of how low the pressure can get back down, it takes time for the winds to catch up to the pressure usually. look like she is going to follow the coastline, crazy how she turns just enough to keep the center from fully going ashore while following the coast. Irma will restrengthen quickly once it moves north off the coast of Cuba. High SST, favorable 200mb jet entrance region, weak shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 79.6W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solak said: SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 79.6W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES Yeah she is hurting and thats probably generous, she has at best 12-24 hrs before the shear picks up too which will hamper her returning to her former glory...realy working out well for Florida right now....need it to stay close to the coast for another 12 hrs or so but I think she turns before then....I suspect models might also correct more north with her track after landfall as it appears the SW shear might push her NE a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 hour ago, 10below said: You are wrong. This a strong Cat 4 storm with the potential to go to a Cat 5. Not according to recon it's not a cat 4......still a dangerous storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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