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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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  On 9/9/2017 at 2:14 AM, franklin NCwx said:

Big bust for the euro and especially the gfs if this continues moving west.

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Yesterday you said if Irma missed Cuba and Miami then the euro busted.  

 

The Euro and Ukie have handled Irma remarkably well compared to models like the GFS which was showing NC and MA hits.

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  On 9/9/2017 at 1:55 AM, superjames1992 said:

The 00z hurricane models are a bit concerning for those of us in the FL panhandle...  Horrible for Tampa it would seem.

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If this westward trend continues, you may actually be looking at a cat 4 LF near you.

At the very least, the chances of a FL Panhandle hit have noticeably increased in the past 24 hours.

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Tell you what guys, it really is humbling to see Mother Nature in her wonder. The power and majesty of this storm puts us in our place. We can build stuff and create models and prepare but we can't control nature in the slightest and it's way larger than all of us. In a way, similar to the eclipse but even closer to home. Hate see all the destruction and hope no one else has to lose their life but nature doesn't yield to us.

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  On 9/9/2017 at 2:54 AM, JoshM said:

78hr NAM = :lol::wacko2:

Now if we get some mixing, those 850s are screaming. Of course, the storm isn't going to turn, it refuses.

namconus_mslp_uv850_seus_51.png

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If any things been consistantly the last 4 or 5 sets of runs, it been the crazy winds across upstate and N Ga, no matter what the track! 

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  On 9/9/2017 at 2:49 AM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

If this westward trend continues, you may actually be looking at a cat 4 LF near you.

At the very least, the chances of a FL Panhandle hit have noticeably increased in the past 24 hours.

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Agreed.  And Hurricane Watches are now up for Tallahassee and the Forgotten Coast.

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  On 9/9/2017 at 4:10 AM, WintersNotComing said:

What's the best way to see what wind speeds will be on the ground? I think I saw somewhere that you look at the 850 wind chart and take off 10%. Is that correct? If so, it looks like this storm has a massive wind field even well into Georgia and the Carolinas. 

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Wait for the Euro, and look at the gusts on weather bell.

Or look up the GFS on tropical tidbits, goto low levels, and find 10m wind speed.

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