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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border  landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11.thumb.png.fed4907d50b1c65299efa4e253d72c15.png

Hugo like strength and landfall possibilities on that run!

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16 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Ouch,  this looks like a memorable 9/11 for a very different reason.  Historically speaking mother nature has a difficult time trying to drive hurricanes into the SC/GA coast but the strength of the building ridge to the north just might do the trick this time.  This run aint pretty.

Shape of the GA coast makes hits hard but also hte shape makes for a disaster when they do get hit. 

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17 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border  landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11.thumb.png.fed4907d50b1c65299efa4e253d72c15.png

yeah what gets me is the size of the thing by the time it gets there...the windfield is huge...so this will be felt pretty far and wide regardless of where (if) it makes landfall. 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_11.png

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah what gets me is the size of the thing by the time it gets there...the windfield is huge...so this will be felt pretty far and wide regardless of where (if) it makes landfall. 

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_11.png

Crazy....It misses all land and travels over the warmest Atlantic waters.   What's going to weaken it on that track...

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This Euro run is the first one that made me feel kinda sick in my stomach....thats basically a Cat 4/5 Isabel type annular hurricane without the weakening taking a track similar to Floyd or Fran.....this would easily be the most costly most destructive cane to hit the Carolinas ever. 

That wind field is just insane, granted it would be smaller over land but still even on the left/west side we are talking hurricane force gust probably 100+ miles from the center over land and the east side well....ugh.  If the forward speed  was say 10-15 mph it would carry those winds well inland especially given the structure it will have.....really need this run to not be right lol...imagine this thing tracking up I 95 from NC to NY at 15-20 mph.....

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

ERC?  I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out.  Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then?

Yep...unlucky in winter to miss events but lucky that we will miss this.  We always dodge major events...It all evens out.

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31 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Reminds a bit of how Fran came in with the ULL back over the lower Miss Valley and the big high to the NE....made the NE side hell we gusted into the low 100's a good 75-100 miles from the center because of the gradient in that one. 

That's the only way you pull them in that far inland.  Hugo was an extreme case of that as well with the ULL well south, near New Orleans.

wzR7ZJV.png

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