mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point. Hugo like strength and landfall possibilities on that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Ouch, this looks like a memorable 9/11 for a very different reason. Historically speaking mother nature has a difficult time trying to drive hurricanes into the SC/GA coast but the strength of the building ridge to the north just might do the trick this time. This run aint pretty. Shape of the GA coast makes hits hard but also hte shape makes for a disaster when they do get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hugo like strength and landfall possibilities on that run! Yeah that is not a miss, starting to see it turn in the last two frames but its probably to little to late to miss the Carolinas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: 920mb due south of Wilmington and east of Daytona Beach at day 10 on Euro Euro....energy diving over PNA ridge day 5 which forms cutoff in Deep South with Cat5 hurricane just off SE coast with stout Atlantic ridge to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 More recent image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point. yeah what gets me is the size of the thing by the time it gets there...the windfield is huge...so this will be felt pretty far and wide regardless of where (if) it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: yeah what gets me is the size of the thing by the time it gets there...the windfield is huge...so this will be felt pretty far and wide regardless of where (if) it makes landfall. Crazy....It misses all land and travels over the warmest Atlantic waters. What's going to weaken it on that track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The good news is that there's still plenty of time left in the game, and from the Charleston standpoint this one looks a lot like Irene which stayed far enough offshore to not really do much here. Come Monday or Tuesday hopefully we'll see something very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro run is very scary. That would be terrible for SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 This Euro run is the first one that made me feel kinda sick in my stomach....thats basically a Cat 4/5 Isabel type annular hurricane without the weakening taking a track similar to Floyd or Fran.....this would easily be the most costly most destructive cane to hit the Carolinas ever. That wind field is just insane, granted it would be smaller over land but still even on the left/west side we are talking hurricane force gust probably 100+ miles from the center over land and the east side well....ugh. If the forward speed was say 10-15 mph it would carry those winds well inland especially given the structure it will have.....really need this run to not be right lol...imagine this thing tracking up I 95 from NC to NY at 15-20 mph..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Maue says satellite estimate is at CAT 4 strength right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Crazy....It misses all land and travels over the warmest Atlantic waters. What's going to weaken it on that track... ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Maue says satellite estimate is at CAT 4 strength right now Looks like it for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? Yep...unlucky in winter to miss events but lucky that we will miss this. We always dodge major events...It all evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? You should have gotten vacation insurance..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: You should have gotten vacation insurance..... Wonder if it's too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? I wish. Big snow storms are fun. Big hurricanes are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Wonder if it's too late? Dunno but with the wind field this thing is gonna have and the strong high to the north the winds will be piling into the coast days before it actually gets up this way and even if its a few hundred miles offshore the beach is gonna catch hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The progression of that Upper low over the MS Valley is obviously the key on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? Yes, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This upper pattern is just bad period and with the upper low over Arkansas, it sends the message of a high risk of Irma crossing the coast of the SE at the worst possible right angle. Granted this is 10 days out and a lot can change and we all hope it changes for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Reminds a bit of how Fran came in with the ULL back over the lower Miss Valley and the big high to the NE....made the NE side hell we gusted into the low 100's a good 75-100 miles from the center because of the gradient in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Reminds a bit of how Fran came in with the ULL back over the lower Miss Valley and the big high to the NE....made the NE side hell we gusted into the low 100's a good 75-100 miles from the center because of the gradient in that one. That's the only way you pull them in that far inland. Hugo was an extreme case of that as well with the ULL well south, near New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 yeah Hugo is the extreme of that setup for sure, the look the Euro has is pretty close to this kind of setup at the least one would expect that setup should keep it from going NE to quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: ERC? I'm just glad we're in the bullseye 10 days out. Is that kind of like Winter where there's no chance of getting hit, then? Naso much. Imo tracks of hurricanes are much easier to predict. The steering patterns are more stable. No precip issues etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18z GFS is deep with the east coast trough...Irma to miss off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS is deep with the east coast trough...Irma to miss off the coast With that look it almost looks like it could phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 38 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS is deep with the east coast trough...Irma to miss off the coast Well its possible that it could come a bit closer and have a few effects in New York City and New England. Only about 30 more runs to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Well its possible that it could come a bit closer and have a few effects in New York City and New England. Only about 30 more runs to go.... I threw in the towel when I saw the deep trough interaction, but yeah, it does hit you guys in the NE....nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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