mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'm not even in the cone of uncertainty @ the 5pm NHC update! Always fear the NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'm not even in the cone of uncertainty @ the 5pm NHC update! Always fear the NW trend! No doubt. I walked away after last night knowing the triad was pretty much out of the running for anything but a few showers. But man! I didnt foresee such a shift west today. You know some folks in New Orleans are thinking they have seen this dog and pony show before. It will be interesting to see what happens if she can round the bend into the GOM. Maybe another Charlie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I'm still worried about that 24 hour run up to the coast. We've seen lots of storms struggle for days seemingly for little reason and finally get things sorted for substantial strengthening very quickly. Pretty much all the models had Irma steady state or struggling right now and they almost all have explosive development as it approaches Florida. That's a good point. I've seen that before on modeling where they rapidly strengthen a storm that just can't get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That's a lot of rain for the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's a good point. I've seen that before on modeling where they rapidly strengthen a storm that just can't get its act together. You're definitely right, and the models start strengthening Irma seemingly while half of its circulation is still over Cuba. Which I may buy with a cat. 1 storm in a great environment like that but not a storm that's already cat. 4. I guess we'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, gman said: That's a lot of rain for the Upstate. That's an epic rain map for the entire state of GA. Huge state with almost all of it on 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 24 minutes ago, gman said: That's a lot of rain for the Upstate. With all the west shifts that feels a bit much for us in Charleston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: With all the west shifts that feels a bit much for us in Charleston... 95% of land falling hurricanes have the most moisture and winds on the East and NE side of the eye! Even going up through Georgia , the SE fetch of the Gulf and Atlantic, will be pretty fierce ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Jeez at the 18z tracks. GA is in trouble wrt rain. The center may come right over Atlanta. Pretty nuts considering we were not even in the path of her just a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This might have already been posted... Cuba radar http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Irma struggling a bit with this dry air, she is having trouble maintaining convection....plane still finding surface winds around 140 in the NW corner, they cant fly the south side cause its in Cuban airspace...suspect they drop her to 140 mph next update, and if the center gets onshore its going to do a number on her....then the question becomes how much damage and can she recover before hitting FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Irma struggling a bit with this dry air, she is having trouble maintaining convection....plane still finding surface winds around 140 in the NW corner, they cant fly the south side cause its in Cuban airspace...suspect they drop her to 140 mph next update, and if the center gets onshore its going to do a number on her....then the question becomes how much damage and can she recover before hitting FL. I think she just needed a power nap It's kinda comical the description of her "maintaining convection" is a satellite image like this of a Cat 4 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: 95% of land falling hurricanes have the most moisture and winds on the East and NE side of the eye! Even going up through Georgia , the SE fetch of the Gulf and Atlantic, will be pretty fierce ! True, it just feels a bit far away. But I'm more familiar with how it works along the South and mid Texas coast since I grew up over there. Governor's on and it sounds like they're playing this one smart. Only barrier islands on the lower coast are being evacuated. Doing it all the way up to Charleston and including mainland areas in my opinion would be an overreaction and lead to complacency in the future with the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: True, it just feels a bit far away. But I'm more familiar with how it works along the South and mid Texas coast since I grew up over there. Governor's on and it sounds like they're playing this one smart. Only barrier islands on the lower coast are being evacuated. Doing it all the way up to Charleston and including mainland areas in my opinion would be an overreaction and lead to complacency in the future with the general public. That would be me then I'm not convinced enough to evacuate yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z GEFS came even more west. Mean landfalls around Naples/ Fort Myers. Travels just east of Tampa. More or less up the west coast of Florida. Looks like there are 4 or 5 members that keep it in the Gulf the whole way up. That would be... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I hope we get highs anchored up there in the NE like that this winter. Man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z GEFS. Based on this and other model guidance, there's an increasing possibility of the Tampa area getting into some part of the eyewall. Tampa-St Pete area is home to a few million people, and they have some skyscrapers of their own... GEFS individual tracks from the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, jrips27 said: GEFS individual tracks from the main thread Macon and ATL both look like hey could end up in whatever is left of the right front quadrant of Irma. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This sucker is going to make landfall as a Cat 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Eyewall getting really close to the cuban coast. Waiting on this turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This storm may really stay offshore of the west coast of FL. Wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 She is making landfall right now if she doesnt turn in the next couple of hrs the entire center will move onshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: She is making landfall right now if she doesnt turn in the next couple of hrs the entire center will move onshore.... Could be very beneficial to Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 What a sight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty impressive. Looks like the eye has shrunk all the sudden and looks a move to the SW! I'm starting to doubt this thing turns north, May just go straight across Cuba into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The 00z hurricane models are a bit concerning for those of us in the FL panhandle... Horrible for Tampa it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This thing is looking like it is going fully ashore into Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 And what model had it going into Cuba 4 or 5 days ago?the Ukie.What I've noticed is the Ukie is very good at subtropical ridges/Bermuda high placement and strength. Every model and every person said it was impossible but I reckon not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 No good for people looking for the Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: And what model had it going into Cuba 4 or 5 days ago?the Ukie.What I've noticed is the Ukie is very good at subtropical ridges/Bermuda high placement and strength. Every model and every person said it was impossible but I reckon not. Big bust for the euro and especially the gfs if this continues moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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