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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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4 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Fwiw- TWC is calling for 86 mph wind gusts for Charlotte and 76 for Atlanta Monday night. Seems a bit high but maybe I am missing something. 

That sounds a bit extreme to me. Also I would think gusts would be higher in ATL and CLT considering the track, generally speaking. The latest GFS has most of us in the 50-70 mph gust range, and even that seems a bit high to me.

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28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can you send the link to get this imagery? 


I think the base path is here, and several interesting other things in there too, but the 24/48 hour loops are the main ones: 
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/ 


In the 48hr one, you can clearly see the replacement (and how MUCH this storm has expanded in the last 24):
last48hrs.gif

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6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

That is an ERC.  Maybe some dry air too off of Cuba but it's an ERC.

 

i don't see 60+ wind for ATL or CLT but I've made quite a few wrong assumptions about Irma. 

Wouldn't be surprised if we trend back to the east...does anyone have any data on actual paths vs. modeled paths?  I don't recall such a western trend before...but could be wrong.

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It was looking like she's been moving west, and the latest NHC advisory confirms it. She'll have to pull north quickly to avoid a Cuba landfall. It's low terrain in that area, but that's still land.

LOCATION...22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

 

 

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2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

What's the UKMET look like?  It has been the furthest south and west for days.  It was also predicting a Cuba hit.  I already put a lot of weight in that model.  To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro."

Very true. Looks like the 12z is just getting going. I'd check the main thread to see if anyone has it early, but I don't think I can handle it.

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6 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

What's the UKMET look like?  It has been the furthest south and west for days.  It was also predicting a Cuba hit.  I already put a lot of weight in that model.  To me, it's much more consistent than "king Euro."

Only images I see currently available for 12z UKMET....has IRMA over NW GA at 96 and over W TN at 120

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15 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Wouldn't be surprised if we trend back to the east...does anyone have any data on actual paths vs. modeled paths?  I don't recall such a western trend before...but could be wrong.

Go to this link, and click on your model of choice in the Trends section at the bottom left...it will show recent model tracks with the actual storm track superimposed

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

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2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there.

Going to be hard for me to believe she avoids Cuba, at this point.  Given the current heading and that the Euro now shows an impact with Cuba, I'm starting to think it's going to be hard for her to make landfall (assuming she does) in south Florida above a Cat 3.

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago

 
 

The 12Z ECMWF has shifted even farther west into the Florida Keys with #Irma on Sunday. This is some good news for the Miami area.DJOGmvJXoAIROpN.jpg

Could you imagine if all those people who left the peninsula that may be in southern georgia or the panhandle are now suddenly in line for a hit if it slides up the west coast. 

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25 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hard for me to believe she will carry hurricane force winds into the atlanta and charlotte areas seeing they have her as a depression up there.

Lookout said something earlier about the storm spreading out and the gradient between the wedge in N Ga and W Carolinas , leading to those crazy wind gusts modeled

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49 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Keep an eye on MW shortwave

 

Thumbnail

You look at that and its amazing to me she is plowing straight west....the flow over FL is SW to NE and pretty strong look the the clouds right along the SE coast screaming NE.....how she isnt already headed north or hell even NW is crazy to me, I guess the base of the trough is just a little to far north to grab her enough..most models pull that  S/W over Kansas all the way to the gulf coast....

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