DopplerWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 gfs even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs even further south Cool, I might not even get rain from Irma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cool, I might not even get rain from Irma! Why would you want this monster to come to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @36 909 heading to the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, 10below said: Why would you want this monster to come to you? I need rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @42 Taking turn north 898! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I need rain I got nearly 2.5 inches with the cold front the other day. I didn't realize y'all were in a shetley drought just a few miles to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @48 903 jog NW towards SW Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: I got nearly 2.5 inches with the cold front the other day. I didn't realize y'all were in a shetley drought just a few miles to my south. Got eeem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Might be seeing some signs of dry air as the inflow comes over the end of Cuba that is very mountainous and downsloping might be coming into play..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @60 Orlando getting raked. Straight up the middle of the peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Might be seeing some signs of dry air as the inflow comes over the end of Cuba that is very mountainous and downsloping might be coming into play..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html That would be awesome! Kill the monster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 @72 center of florida closing in on GA/FL border 953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, 10below said: That would be awesome! Kill the monster! I dunno about killing her but this long track just off the coast to almost a landfall on Cuba and keeping her a 4 the entire time might be iffy...the waters are warm but having a large island just south of the track will IMO have a impact. If it follows the NHC track the center will only be very close to Cuba for 24 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, 10below said: Got eeem! That rain Wednesday want help the over seeding out this weekend. Atleast thats why I was hopefull for an inch or 2 Tuesday. Be very interested to see if this gets sub 900 as it hits land somewhere keys/south Florida. Wonder if cantore is brave enough to roll the cameras down to key west this weekend? And hope everyone enjoys the early cool weather we are having and the cad early next week. Big rumblings of La Nina this winter. Sure thats what all the snowfreaks like myself on here wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Cloud tops are warming up across the entire CDO, she is doing a ERC but in this image you can see the the inflow from the south is coming right over the end of Cuba and that entire end is pretty hilly and includes a mt chain up to 6K ft high....will be interesting to see how/if it affected her. Crazy how the entire CDO warmed almost at the same time....bad news is she probably is expanding her wind field... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Maybe someone in here can answer this for me... I am watching the satellite imagery and I am looking at the wind sheer and sst's. I cannot figure out why this thing is weakening. I get the EWRC but I thought that it should have already happened. Anyone have some insider news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Cloud tops are warming up across the entire CDO, she is doing a ERC but in this image you can see the the inflow from the south is coming right over the end of Cuba and that entire end is pretty hilly and includes a mt chain up to 6K ft high....will be interesting to see how/if it affected her. Crazy how the entire CDO warmed almost at the same time....bad news is she probably is expanding her wind field... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html How longs do these EWRCs last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, MikeB_01 said: How longs do these EWRCs last? ,It varies....this one is pretty much done the inner eyewall has eroded and the new wider eyewall has to tighten up, if it does then she will go bonkers....she has been trying to do this ERC for the last 24 hrs it took her a while this time around earlier in her life she was popping them out 2-3 times a day....this was the first one in a long time... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I doubt it's EWRC. Given what you just said and topography of that area. With the inflow coming up and over the mountains... That more than likely is downsloping. Causing the clouds to warm and ragged eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, FLweather said: I doubt it's EWRC. Given what you just said and topography of that area. With the inflow coming up and over the mountains... That more than likely is downsloping. Causing the clouds to warm and ragged eyewall. Good thing you don't do this for a living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, FLweather said: I doubt it's EWRC. Given what you just said and topography of that area. With the inflow coming up and over the mountains... That more than likely is downsloping. Causing the clouds to warm and ragged eyewall. well it has definitely just completed or is completing a ERC and that will cause it to weaken some...however there does appear to be pretty good gulp of dry air in the center but she should be able to mix it out...but if she keeps bringing in dryer air and the southern half of her circulation is over Cuba for 20-24 hrs it could hurt her more than the NHC forecast, hopefully that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, FLweather said: I doubt it's EWRC. Given what you just said and topography of that area. With the inflow coming up and over the mountains... That more than likely is downsloping. Causing the clouds to warm and ragged eyewall. It has definitely gone thru an EWRC. The inner eyewall is dying off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 59 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I got nearly 2.5 inches with the cold front the other day. I didn't realize y'all were in a shetley drought just a few miles to my south. same in Taylors. I typical want no part of tropical storm rains. I still remember Jerry back in 1995...many parts of Greenville were flooded, including my home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is.Worst winds are likely to be in a band about 20 miles in thickness around that (little wider on the right and a little thinner on the left). This is a sobering thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Grit with the good graphic. These ERCs can be quite pesky. They tend to last longer than we think they will. Dry air also usually takes longer to mix out than we think it will. With most of the guidance now aligned keeping her close to Cuba for a time, I am reticent to believe the rapid reintensification that the models are showing, prior to landfall in FL. Enough dry air might be ingested, along with a possible subsequent ERC, to keep her out of the Cat 5 tranche (with maybe low end Cat 4 being the upper limit?). My final call is landfall between Cape Sable and Cape Romano and winds of 140 mph, with the greatest margin of error being slightly stronger and slightly farther west (maybe not even striking lower FL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Guess the good news is it spares Miami of the worst...but geez the Keys Should note...worst of the wind but Miami area would have the heaviest rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said: I got nearly 2.5 inches with the cold front the other day. I didn't realize y'all were in a shetley drought just a few miles to my south. I got 3+ combined Tuesday and Wed also. But that's the first rainfall over an inch imby since June! And long stretches, 10-15 days with heat and no rain and pop up storms! I'd get 0 , while all around me would get 1-3 from the storms! That wind map from the GFS tho! Moving way into GA and ATL, still has 60-80 mph gusts around me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, griteater said: It has definitely gone thru an EWRC. The inner eyewall is dying off now. Can you send the link to get this imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I know it's the Navgem but...out into the gulf on 12z run. Almost expect the Euro to tease that at 12z. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2017090812&prod=prp&tau=060&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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