Hurricane Irma

[packfan98]

[Cold Rain]

Would be something if Irma never hit south FL at all and instead went into the Gulf and eventually up into the panhandle.  I think that is very much a possibility.

[griteater]

2 points:

1. 0z Euro Ensemble members tightened significantly into S FL with the more SW track as NCSNOW mentioned into SW FL Everglades.  Looks like same spot as Labor Day Hurricane (1935) thru the Keys.

2. When the storm is in the vicinity of Macon, GA at 2AM Tue on the NHC Cone, the forecasted sustained winds are 45mph...probably gusts to 60 or so (not terrible).

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

2 points:

1. 0z Euro Ensemble members tightened significantly into S FL with the more SW track as NCSNOW mentioned into SW FL Everglades.  Looks like same spot as Labor Day Hurricane (1935) thru the Keys.

2. When the storm is in the vicinity of Macon, GA at 2AM Tue on the NHC Cone, the forecasted sustained winds are 45mph...probably gusts to 60 or so (not terrible).

I wouldn't be too worried in NRN or even CNTRL GA.  It takes a fast moving cane that comes in moving N-NNE near TLH to really be a disaster situation there as far as winds go.  Flooding is a different story though 

[downeastnc]

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Would be something if Irma never hit south FL at all and instead went into the Gulf and eventually up into the panhandle.  I think that is very much a possibility.

On this loop you can see the little finger ridge to her north, its breaking down  there isnt much ridging left to her north so she will turn in the next 12-24 hrs, when she begins to slow down we know she is about to turn, its amazing honestly that she isnt already heading north, the two shortwaves dropping down are obvious as well, thats what will capture her and pull her west according to models....however where that happens determine how quickly or how much NW trend she has. The same for the trough if it hold on longer or sharpens up even a tiny bit more than modeled this thing could still just scrape Florida on its way to GA-NC, we are still taking 50-100 miles making a huge difference . It seems unlikely but hurricanes are notoriously fickle things who like to do what they are not suppose to. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[Cold Rain]

12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

On this loop you can see the little finger ridge to her north, its breaking down  there isnt much ridging left to her north so she will turn in the next 12-24 hrs, when she begins to slow down we know she is about to turn, its amazing honestly that she isnt already heading north, the two shortwaves dropping down are obvious as well, thats what will capture her and pull her west according to models....however where that happens determine how quickly or how much NW trend she has. The same for the trough if it hold on longer or sharpens up even a tiny bit more than modeled this thing could still just scrape Florida on its way to GA-NC, we are still taking 50-100 miles making a huge difference . It seems unlikely but hurricanes are notoriously fickle things who like to do what they are not suppose to. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

One thing I was curious about was whether or not the trough/shortwaves have been properly modeled.  In my mind, that is the key to the track.  In the winter, we often see the models not lock in fairly well until 48 hours out or so.  In this case, with the extra balloon launches and data collections, I think the chances that the trough is well-modeled are higher than with previous hurricane forecasts.  That is not to say that changes can't occur.  And your point about tropical cyclone track variability is well-founded.  But we are getting very close now.  Plus, we've had model upgrades and are getting more frequent data for this event.  Given that, I would be inclined to believe that a landfall (or second landfall) north of Charleston is a long shot at this point.

My thinking at this point for the Triangle and east toward the coast is breezy conditions with clouds and occasional showers.

[Ser Pounce]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

If the current path holds, I might not have to pack up all the furbabies       CAE would experience the same conditions as I would here. I find out at some point today if evacuations are mandatory starting tomorrow. I should go buy some wine for the wait      This is stressful  

My thoughts exactly, I was not looking forward to the prospect of driving to Raleigh in a Celica next to a cat in a small crate! If you find out if evacuations are mandatory tomorrow please share. The news in Charleston is that will be announced that way beginning at 10 tomorrow with I-26 eastbound lanes reversed. "Governor is expected to announce" is the way I see it worded.

 

This morning it was almost cool here - enough to shut off the A/C in the car anyway. Definitely not weather that would imply to me that a hurricane was coming.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

One thing I was curious about was whether or not the trough/shortwaves have been properly modeled.  In my mind, that is the key to the track.  In the winter, we often see the models not lock in fairly well until 48 hours out or so.  In this case, with the extra balloon launches and data collections, I think the chances that the trough is well-modeled are higher than with previous hurricane forecasts.  That is not to say that changes can't occur.  And your point about tropical cyclone track variability is well-founded.  But we are getting very close now.  Plus, we've had model upgrades and are getting more frequent data for this event.  Given that, I would be inclined to believe that a landfall (or second landfall) north of Charleston is a long shot at this point.

My thinking at this point for the Triangle and east toward the coast is breezy conditions with clouds and occasional showers.

Probably not even that on the forecasted track, and I agree all information points towards the NHC track to S FL,  but again subtle changes in placement and timing can easily make the track off 100+ miles in the 3 day range....Hugo came much closer and we didnt even get winds gusting over 30 or so here and a few showers from it. I expect zero impact from the path Irma is forecasted to take....if it does something like the NAM or CMC then obviously that would be much more rain and probably at least gust to TS force. 

[SnowNiner]

4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Probably not even that on the forecasted track, and I agree all information points towards the NHC track to S FL,  but again subtle changes in placement and timing can easily make the track off 100+ miles in the 3 day range....Hugo came much closer and we didnt even get winds gusting over 30 or so here and a few showers from it. I expect zero impact from the path Irma is forecasted to take....if it does something like the NAM or CMC then obviously that would be much more rain and probably at least gust to TS force. 

I would not expect much for CLT either on the forecasted track.  Very breezy, and some rain but nothing extraordinary.  Crazy track, never seen anything like it before.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a significant track change in the next 2 days. 

[downeastnc]

Just now, SnowNiner said:

I would not expect much for CLT either on the forecasted track.  Very breezy, and some rain but nothing extraordinary.  Crazy track, never seen anything like it before.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a significant track change in the next 2 days. 

I think its a lock for S FL, but there are still differences in how it goes north from there.....and lets face its a complicated setup with a lot of moving parts, the chances the 3-4 day plots are 100 miles either side of that plots if fairly high actually. Though one would think if its gonna go any direction its east. 

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Probably not even that on the forecasted track, and I agree all information points towards the NHC track to S FL,  but again subtle changes in placement and timing can easily make the track off 100+ miles in the 3 day range....Hugo came much closer and we didnt even get winds gusting over 30 or so here and a few showers from it. I expect zero impact from the path Irma is forecasted to take....if it does something like the NAM or CMC then obviously that would be much more rain and probably at least gust to TS force. 

Yeah, I remember Hugo, although I didn't get much from it.  I was in Burlington at the time, and we were supposed to get high winds.  We got some gusts, and I don't believe we got much rain, as it tracked farther south than it looked like it would originally.  I do not know the background synoptic setup with Hugo, though.  In this case, this is a large system, and we have a decent high pressure to the north.  That gradient should provide some decent wind gusts at times.  But the rain might not materialize.  But you're right, a NAM or CMC track would definitely increase wind and rain chances.

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

If this happens ATL is going to get a ton of rain from Irma.  Could be a big problem for the river,  creek and stream flooding.  As snowgoose said the winds will be relatively mild but the rains if she gets to just hanging out will suck. 

[Cold Rain]

Interesting to see all of those loopy scenarios showing up now.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, LithiaWx said:

If this happens ATL is going to get a ton of rain from Irma.  Could be a big problem for the river,  creek and stream flooding.  As snowgoose said the winds will be relatively mild but the rains of she gets to just hanging out will suck. 

Models show a good 3-5" for ATL.....

[StormyClearweather]

I know this will come as a shock, but the NAM is folding and is south of the GFS so far. The NAM is like that crazy aunt who has to do something wild every once in a while just to get some attention.

[buckeyefan1]

53 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

My thoughts exactly, I was not looking forward to the prospect of driving to Raleigh in a Celica next to a cat in a small crate! If you find out if evacuations are mandatory tomorrow please share. The news in Charleston is that will be announced that way beginning at 10 tomorrow with I-26 eastbound lanes reversed. "Governor is expected to announce" is the way I see it worded.

 

This morning it was almost cool here - enough to shut off the A/C in the car anyway. Definitely not weather that would imply to me that a hurricane was coming.

That's what I've seen too. I grabbed pup and kitty food at the store and was surprised by all the people that said they were staying. Everyone was just walking up to each other to see what their plans were. I've never experienced that before and it totally helped restore my faith in humanity just a tad  

[FLO]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That's what I've seen too. I grabbed pup and kitty food at the store and was surprised by all the people that said they were staying. Everyone was just walking up to each other to see what their plans were. I've never experienced that before and it totally helped restore my faith in humanity just a tad  

Why would they evacuate Charleston at this point? I could see if the models trended back East today. But if they keep west, then why? That makes no sense. 

[StormyClearweather]

Oh wow. 

[FLO]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Oh wow. 

Cliff notes please? 

[StormyClearweather]

Verbatim that'd mean she's back to a category 5, assuming it's not flagged for some reason.

*Edit: A met is saying it's rain contaminated. I don't know much about such things, but he obviously does.

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, FLO said:

Why would they evacuate Charleston at this point? I could see if the models trended back East today. But if they keep west, then why? That makes no sense. 

Storm surge, wind, rain and flooding. The GA/SC coast will still be in the right front quadrant and she's a very large storm. Better to be safe than sorry  

[Ser Pounce]

5 minutes ago, FLO said:

Why would they evacuate Charleston at this point? I could see if the models trended back East today. But if they keep west, then why? That makes no sense. 

To be fair buckeyefan1 is closer to Beaufort. But yeah, my coworkers were about all the same wanting to know what everyone else was up to.

 

@FLO - This thing is still quite strong, unless the datapoint is an error.

[mclean02]

Been lurking for a while on this forum and i know while buildings are built to handle just wind of 100 plus what about all the flying debris ? As Miami would have a ton of since millions of people live there?

[FLO]

Just now, Ser Pounce said:

To be fair buckeyefan1 is closer to Beaufort. But yeah, my coworkers were about all the same wanting to know what everyone else was up to.

 

@FLO - This thing is still quite strong, unless the datapoint is an error.

All I keep hearing from people that probably know nothing, is that SC is out of the woods except for possibly strong gusty winds and a few tornado threats, but mainly for the upstate. Not much threat from CAE to the coast. 

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Storm surge, wind, rain and flooding. The GA/SC coast will still be in the right front quadrant and she's a very large storm. Better to be safe than sorry  

Wouldn't be surprised if Irma snaked over toward Jacksonville then into central GA.  That's still 72+ hours away...who knows.  Even if it tracks between Jville/Tal it will be bad.

[buckeyefan1]

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Irma snaked over toward Jacksonville then into central GA.  That's still 72+ hours away...who knows.  Even if it tracks between Jville/Tal it will be bad.

I wouldn't be surprised either       I have until they close the bridge to get off the island and as it stands now, it's a race to narrow down the track before there is no escape   What a forecasting nightmare....sigh 

[Snow haven]

At least its not to warm here in the Carolinas, if it was warmer tornadoes would be a much bigger issue.

[Lookout]

 

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I wouldn't be too worried in NRN or even CNTRL GA.  It takes a fast moving cane that comes in moving N-NNE near TLH to really be a disaster situation there as far as winds go.  Flooding is a different story though 

Normally i'd agree with you and I've been surprised the gfs/euro have been showing gusts so high considering it makes landfall in south florida...but my concern has gone up quite a bit the past 24 hours. What makes this different than usual is the track and cad. The high is only in the 1028 to 1030mb range which isn't strong but it doesn't have to be terrible strong considering irma will be in the 960s or 970s by the time it reaches south ga...making for a 45 to 50mb pressure gradient between the northeast corner of the state and it. Even without the high, There is going is going to be a lot of the windfield compressed into north ga and the upstate that otherwise would be spread over tn like most other landfalls. Whatever the cause, the gfs and euro are showing unusually strong winds despite it being over land for such a long time. In fact, the euro for the past few runs has actually been showing higher wind gusts in georgia than north florida...which i can only presume is because of the above. 

  I wouldn't go nearly as far as saying it could be a "disaster" But i am confident in saying that one can not really apply the usual/standard expectations of wind with a decaying system in this case and winds are likely to be higher than one would expect them to be and power outages might be a pretty big issue...especially considering soils are pretty wet.  Hopefully the euro/gfs are both over doing it because if wind gusts are that high and that widespread then those who lose power could be without it a while. 

Here is a tweet from ryan maue just a little while ago that illustrates this nicely....winds are in knots. 

 

[FLO]

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 

Normally i'd agree with you and I've been surprised the gfs/euro have been showing gusts so high considering it makes landfall in south florida...but my concern has gone up quite a bit the past 24 hours. What makes this different than usual is the track and cad. The high is only in the 1028 to 1030mb range which isn't strong but it doesn't have to be terrible strong considering irma will be in the 960s or 970s by the time it reaches south ga...making for a 45 to 50mb pressure gradient between the northeast corner of the state and it. Even without the high, There is going is going to be a lot of the windfield compressed into north ga and the upstate that otherwise would be spread over tn like most other landfalls. Whatever the cause, the gfs and euro are showing unusually strong winds despite it being over land for such a long time. In fact, the euro for the past few runs has actually been showing higher wind gusts in georgia than north florida...which i can only presume is because of the above. 

  I wouldn't go nearly as far as saying it could be a "disaster" But i am confident in saying that one can not really apply the usual/standard expectations of wind with a decaying system in this case and winds are likely to be higher than one would expect them to be and power outages might be a pretty big issue...especially considering soils are pretty wet.  Hopefully the euro/gfs are both over doing it because if wind gusts are that high and that widespread then those who lose power could be without it a while. 

Here is a tweet from ryan maue just a little while ago that illustrates this nicely

 

Would these strong winds and rain reach CAE? 

[Ser Pounce]

The latest from our friends at the NHC.

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours.  After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.[/quote]