NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That run with the eye hugging the coast as opposed to runing up the middle of the penisula in itself is key to how bad bad can be for folks in GA and SC/ NC. Interested to see ukmet in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Trough may not pull it ots with a capture like the nam, but may have just enough ump to keep eye wall on or just off Florida coast as she rides north before bending back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Trough may not pull it ots with a capture like the nam, but may have just enough ump to keep eye wall on or just off Florida coast as she rides north before bending back NW. Looks like our rain chances and amounts may go up if it hugs the coast before bending NW too early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Canadian tracks it from Charleston to Columbia to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 00z CMC further east also, they say!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Canadian tracks it from Charleston to Columbia to Charlotte. Lots of rain and wind for a lot of NC also with that track!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: 00z CMC further east also, they say!! Yep and Brady and the pats just lost game 1. So who knows my ukie/euro super team might be off 50 miles and loose once as well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Yep and Brady and the pats just lost game 1. So who knows my ukie/euro super team might be off 50 miles and loose once as well lol. Some in the media will still claim they can go undefeated. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 00z CMC further east also, they say!! Interesting. My brother in cmc plans to stay put. Local news according to him calling for tropical storm wind gust and heavy showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 UKMET comes in on the SW coast again below Naples and then runs NE to Daytona, Just seen this posted on another board......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What time does the Ukie start running? I can only find 00z from 9/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 0z Euro sticking to the western track idea. Pretty similar to its 12z run. Summary: Florida Keys get absolutely rocked. Right up the middle of Florida. Follows I-75 coming north into Georgia. What's left comes directly over Macon and then Atlanta it seems. Wind looks similar to the 12z run as far as Georgia is concerned. Website for detailed Euro maps: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/georgia/sea-level-pressure/20170911-1800z.html Menu on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 How sure can we be about the track? People are letting their guards down in NC and a lot in SC as well. Sure hope it's right especially since the media keeps saying things like "We are clear now" we are "out of danger" Irma is 155 now and a max cat 4. People are hyper focused on her cat number and not the actual power of her. NOAA says intensity can fluctuate for a day or so on the discussion. She's concentric. They were thinking she'd be a cat 4 anyway. Her gaining is possible they say, between the hot waters of Cuba and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 891 mb @ 54 hours on 6z, just off the very southern tip of FL! Gonna be a up the middle run through FL, I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Definitely a smidge W of 0z. Center is inland around Miami , but none of the eye over water. Think 0z had it riding the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Definitely west of the 0z run through hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Through hr 78 it looks like the center is just to the SW of Jacksonville. For reference, the 0z run had it sitting off of the Jacksonville coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Low heading between ATL and GSP @ 90! Upstate getting wrecked with rain and 40-60 mph winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Center over ATL @ 96! Drifting NW into TN @ 102! Very Euro like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 55 minutes ago, Regan said: How sure can we be about the track? People are letting their guards down in NC and a lot in SC as well. Sure hope it's right especially since the media keeps saying things like "We are clear now" we are "out of danger" Irma is 155 now and a max cat 4. People are hyper focused on her cat number and not the actual power of her. NOAA says intensity can fluctuate for a day or so on the discussion. She's concentric. They were thinking she'd be a cat 4 anyway. Her gaining is possible they say, between the hot waters of Cuba and Florida. As of yesterday evening at least, the Charleston media hasn't been saying that. We're out of the cone which is a huge step in the right direction. Lanes on I-26 are supposed to reverse this weekend for evacuations of Charleston + other counties. The state should really revisit that last one if forecasts continue to hold up. So... what's that scooting off back to the southeast that I see Jose doing at the end of the 6z GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Low heading between ATL and GSP @ 90! Upstate getting wrecked with rain and 40-60 mph winds! Euro showing close to 100 mph gusts for athens and ne ga, 70 to 80 in the western upstate, and atlanta gets near hurricane force too....ouch. gfs has gusts in the 70 to 75 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Here is the novice dumb question of the morning. If the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep Irma moving west, why is it not pushing Jose in the same direction? How can Jose make the turn north so much sooner than Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, Lookout said: Euro showing close to 100 mph gusts for athens and ne ga, 70 to 80 in the western upstate, and atlanta gets near hurricane force too....ouch. gfs has gusts in the 70 to 75 range. Long time no see. Been a long time since I posted. But I've been lurking. Lookout could you post some Maps of the orlando area? As of now... The current projected path takes the center about 15 miles to the West of me. WFTV showing winds possible of 90-110 mph sustained. Not sure how accurate that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, gman said: Here is the novice dumb question of the morning. If the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep Irma moving west, why is it not pushing Jose in the same direction? How can Jose make the turn north so much sooner than Irma? The high is simply weakening with time...in part because of the trough that is is moving through the eastern us now. 9 minutes ago, FLweather said: Long time no see. Been a long time since I posted. But I've been lurking. Lookout could you post some Maps of the orlando area? As of now... The current projected path takes the center about 15 miles to the West of me. sure. You are in for a wild ride. Looks like you will be close to the eyewall. Keep in mind this is model estimates so it could be even higher where you are...it will still be very well organized by then. (gfs first, euro second) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I was not expecting to see such a western shift in the Day 5 path in the NHC cone. Assumed it was going to run up the Apps. I might have to send my spare water and batteries to the folks in St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Lookout said: The high is simply weakening with time...in part because of the trough that is is moving through the eastern us now. sure. You are in for a wild ride. Looks like you will be close to the eyewall. Keep in mind this is model estimates so it could be even higher where you are...it will still be very well organized by then. (gfs first, euro second) Thanks. Yeah been getting ready for that wild ride. Gas ice and water are hot ticket items. Hard to find gas. When a 6000 gallon shipment of fuel comes in its gone in about 8-10 hours. Unlike NC the hot ticket items are eggs bread and milk. I don't have and editing apps on my phone. But according to NHC projected path Irmas center will come about 15 miles to my west. Which would put me in the NE guad of the storm. I'm near the big round lake near Orlando. Near the east side of Lake Apopka near the titty poking towards Orlando. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Another 46F morning here in Ellijay this morning. Doesn't feel like a tropical system could be in the area in several days. Really strange that FFC has not posted any graphical information about Monday or Tuesday on its front page with all of the RV's and campers settling into central GA, specifically Hampton. I would imagine that even tropical storm force winds would be a concern for those folks and they need to prepare. Not beating up on FFC but it just seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If the current path holds, I might not have to pack up all the furbabies CAE would experience the same conditions as I would here. I find out at some point today if evacuations are mandatory starting tomorrow. I should go buy some wine for the wait This is stressful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Past couple of Euro runs have been trending with connecting the atlantic ridge to the ridge over the lakes with NE trough getting out a little quicker...12z maybe over Key West if that keeps up. Still 60+ hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I want be the least bit suprised if Irma comes across keys and rides west coast Florida instead of east coast. The Ukie and euro have been rock solid in more direct hit SW Florida verse SE. Espeacilly looking at how it bridges those hps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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