Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Trough may not pull it ots with a capture like the nam, but may have just enough ump to keep eye wall on or just off Florida coast as she rides north before bending back NW.

Looks like our rain chances and amounts may go up if it hugs the coast before bending NW too early! 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z Euro sticking to the western track idea. Pretty similar to its 12z run.

 

Summary: Florida Keys get absolutely rocked. Right up the middle of Florida. Follows I-75 coming north into Georgia. What's left comes directly over Macon and then Atlanta it seems. Wind looks similar to the 12z run as far as Georgia is concerned. 

 

Website for detailed Euro maps:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/georgia/sea-level-pressure/20170911-1800z.html

 

Menu on the left

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How sure can we be about the track?  People are letting their guards down in NC and a lot in SC as well.  Sure hope it's right especially since the media keeps saying things like "We are clear now" we are "out of danger"

Irma is 155 now and a max cat 4. People are hyper focused on her cat number and not the actual power of her.  NOAA says intensity can fluctuate for a day or so on the discussion. She's concentric. They were thinking she'd be a cat 4 anyway. Her gaining is possible they say, between the hot waters of Cuba and Florida.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Regan said:

How sure can we be about the track?  People are letting their guards down in NC and a lot in SC as well.  Sure hope it's right especially since the media keeps saying things like "We are clear now" we are "out of danger"

Irma is 155 now and a max cat 4. People are hyper focused on her cat number and not the actual power of her.  NOAA says intensity can fluctuate for a day or so on the discussion. She's concentric. They were thinking she'd be a cat 4 anyway. Her gaining is possible they say, between the hot waters of Cuba and Florida.  

As of yesterday evening at least, the Charleston media hasn't been saying that.

 

We're out of the cone which is a huge step in the right direction. Lanes on I-26 are supposed to reverse this weekend for evacuations of Charleston + other counties. The state should really revisit that last one if forecasts continue to hold up.

 

So... what's that scooting off back to the southeast that I see Jose doing at the end of the 6z GFS run?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Low heading between ATL and GSP @ 90! Upstate getting wrecked with rain and 40-60 mph winds!

Euro showing close to 100 mph gusts for  athens and ne ga, 70 to 80 in the western upstate,  and atlanta gets near hurricane force too....ouch. 

gfs has gusts in the 70 to 75 range. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_99_487_379.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_102_487_379.png

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090806_90_487_377.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Euro showing close to 100 mph gusts for  athens and ne ga, 70 to 80 in the western upstate,  and atlanta gets near hurricane force too....ouch. 

gfs has gusts in the 70 to 75 range. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_99_487_379.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_102_487_379.png

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090806_90_487_377.png

 

Long time no see. Been a long time since I posted. But I've been lurking.

Lookout could you post some Maps of the orlando area? As of now... The current projected path takes the center about 15 miles to the West of me. WFTV showing winds possible of 90-110 mph sustained. Not sure how accurate that is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, gman said:

Here is the novice dumb question of the morning. If the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep Irma moving west, why is it not pushing Jose in the same direction? How can Jose make the turn north so much sooner than Irma? 

The high is simply  weakening with time...in part because of the trough that is is moving through the eastern us now. 

9 minutes ago, FLweather said:

 

Long time no see. Been a long time since I posted. But I've been lurking.

Lookout could you post some Maps of the orlando area? As of now... The current projected path takes the center about 15 miles to the West of me.

sure. You are in for a wild ride. Looks like you will be close to the eyewall. Keep in mind this is model estimates so it could be even higher where you are...it will still be very well organized by then. (gfs first, euro second)

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090806_71_507_377.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_81_507_379.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The high is simply  weakening with time...in part because of the trough that is is moving through the eastern us now. 

sure. You are in for a wild ride. Looks like you will be close to the eyewall. Keep in mind this is model estimates so it could be even higher where you are...it will still be very well organized by then. (gfs first, euro second)

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090806_71_507_377.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_81_507_379.png

Thanks. Yeah been getting ready for that wild ride. Gas ice and water are hot ticket items. Hard to find gas. When a 6000 gallon shipment of fuel comes in its gone in about 8-10 hours. Unlike NC the hot ticket items are eggs bread and milk. I don't have and editing apps on my phone. But according to NHC projected path Irmas center will come about 15 miles to my west. Which would put me in the NE guad of the storm. I'm near the big round lake near Orlando. Near the east side of Lake Apopka near the titty poking towards Orlando. Lol.

Screenshot_2017-09-08-01-27-32.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another 46F morning here in Ellijay this morning. Doesn't feel like a tropical system could be in the area in several days.

Really strange that FFC has not posted any graphical information about Monday or Tuesday on its front page with all of the RV's and campers settling into central GA, specifically Hampton. I would imagine that even tropical storm force winds would be a concern for those folks and they need to prepare. Not beating up on FFC but it just seems odd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...