senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 No change at 18 on the 00Z GFS as compared to the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I buy it. What's the pull it that far north? There is ridging to the east, and no real trough over the eastern US, just a weakness over the south. It's going to go into that and die. The question isn't how far east, but how far west. It's always been that. The more easterly runs just had less pull with that feature. Tweaks, if you will. I dunno thats a pretty decent trough over the eastern US...hell look at the outflow of Katia getting sucked into the base of it.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 It may be just a tiny touch east at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 IF there is gonna be a big change in the GFS it will be around 36-48 hrs.....thats when the NAM really turned north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: I dunno thats a pretty decent trough over the eastern US...hell look at the outflow of Katia getting sucked into the base of it.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html It's already past by the time the storm is going north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Touch North at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 North and maybe a touch slower at 42? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Could I get a link for the GFS? I'm a total numpty when it comes to using the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Almost stalled barely moved 36-42 this means its turning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, cmh90 said: Could I get a link for the GFS? I'm a total numpty when it comes to using the website. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090800&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Pivotal Weather is also good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 North and east at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NE trough hanging back a hair more. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: North and east at 48 By a small amount. The upper levels show a little more troughing, but that's just as likely to pull it west than the pull it out to sea. Ridging is weaker to the west, and only a little weaker to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At 54 getting close to landfall in South Florida but certainly farther east. Not 100 miles but probably 30-40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 60 right over Miami... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: At 54 getting close to landfall in South Florida but certainly farther east. Not 100 miles but probably 30-40? Nice estimate. I did the calculation putting in the coordinates on the NHC site. It moved 33 mil NE of 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At 60, landfall south east Florida. Certainly east of the 18Z but not by 100 miles like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 It's basically exactly the same through 60. Don't be silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Nice estimate. I did the calculation putting in the coordinates on the NHC site. It moved 33 mil NE of 18Z Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 It doesn't look at all like the NAM. The NAM had a much strong NE trough and it had much further east at this point. The models will deviate some each run, but there's no big fundamental differences. It's like waiting for an OTS storm in the winter to trend west. It's only going to change so much in the short term, with some rare exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, senc30 said: At 60, landfall south east Florida. Certainly east of the 18Z but not by 100 miles like the NAM Wonder if we see a shift in the ensemble to the east. Getting down to crunch time for any major model changes that may show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: It's basically exactly the same through 60. Don't be silly. When I put it against the 18Z it is slightly east of the 18Z. I'm not saying 100 miles but it is east by a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Rough run for Miami.. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, senc30 said: When I put it against the 18Z it is slightly east of the 18Z. I'm not saying 100 miles but it is east by a little I do actually think it's meaningfully different with a more NNE movement between 60 and 66. But before that it was just noise, and not just the storm track but also the trough. They were both almost identical. But it's very similar to 18z and still meaningfully west from the 12z and earlier GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Riding the Florida coast at 78. Looks like eye is half on and half off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Even with tiny changes, looks like it comes into Georgia about the same at the 18Z. Will certainly be watching the trough north the next 12-24 hours. See y'all tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Gfs rocks most of FL and GA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: Gfs rocks most of FL and GA. Wow. Yeah the remnants get hung up underneath the trough overhead. It just stalls in North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 NAM vs GFS trough placement when the NAM has Irma turning enough to miss FL and come north...really not that big of a difference...basically the models cant really tell us how the turn plays out or exactly where within probably 100 miles...SE Florida is toast either way. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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