Met1985 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Superman couldn't make that kinda jump. Lol That run just came out of nowhere. Do I trust the NAM? No but obviously there still is a small percentage that this could just be pulled away much further north and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Talking about a huge swing... got a gut feeling some other models will come back east.. There is so much going on its a models night mare it's like they are batting blind folded. . This is going to be another now cast stormSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If Goofy has any hint to follow NAM, then it might be on to something...... I bet GFS is more East than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Lol That run just came out of nowhere. Do I trust the NAM? No but obviously there still is a small percentage that this could just be pulled away much further north and out to sea. I don't know, I've seen a lot of crazy NAM runs totally out of line with other guidance. Can't say I ever remember any of them turning out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 If the models have the trough and ridge wrong it should start to really show up on the 00Z runs, we are into nowcasting time really, how Irma moves the next 12-24 hrs will decide where she goes....The NAM is probably a touch overdone with holding the trough back but it could also be the first of the models to correct back east if its even half right with the trough....also look for a decrease in forward speed that will indicate the turn is about to happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 As bad as the NAM is, it's pretty good inside 50 hours picking up on what is happening in the upper level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I don't know, I've seen a lot of crazy NAM runs totally out of line with other guidance. Can't say I ever remember any of them turning out to be right. last january, first to latch on to our sleet storm from hell when other guidance showed 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Must be really hanging back. That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance. It's why Im still a little leery of the farther west options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, griteater said: As of 11AM today, Irma had 185mph winds for 37 hours, longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record. Previous record was Haiyan in the W Pacific at 24 hours. And as of 5PM, Irma had been a CAT 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours. Satellite era (1966) record for Atlantic was 42 hours (Hurricanes Mitch and David). Info from @philklotzbach. Irma is going to have one heck of a storm surge given the strong winds, long build up of waters, and large size. Thanks grit. It's obliterating those past records! BTW, saw that Patricia from 2015 was the most intense ever recorded in Atlantic Basin. Lowest pressure was 872 and sustained winds of 215!!! I had forgotten about her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NHC didn't budge their cone on the new 11 pm advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Not sure the OBX is spared with this run..everyone else looks to stay dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: NHC didn't budge their cone on the new 11 pm advisory They really shouldn't until the Euro breaks rhythm. Its verification scores speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: It's why Im still a little leery of the farther west options. GSP did say this track that has been forecasted basically has no precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 11PM NHC track is ugly. ATL gets hit with whatever core is left of Irma. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?cone#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks more threatened? What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 00z Spaghetti's... looks pretty close to NHC track and all make landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, QC_Halo said: Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. What am I missing? The NAM just came in with an oddball way east run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, QC_Halo said: Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. What am I missing? The NAM came back east...that is all, and its the NAM but it could also be picking up on something with the trough hanging in longer and that could shift the track more east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, QC_Halo said: Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. What am I missing? One Model the NAM is showing a eastward move off the coast of FLA. and up the coast to Outer banks of NC . Not the most reliable model for hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks more threatened? What am I missing? 500mb Trough in NE is deeper and grabs Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NHC didn't budge their cone on the new 11 pm advisory Yeah. They did. More west. The NHC keeps taking away and away. West and west. Not sure I buy it. Idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: NHC didn't budge their cone on the new 11 pm advisory LF in Florida is about the same, but the Day 5 path is considerably farther west compared to the 8PM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Must be really hanging back. That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance. Was some new data ingested or did it ingest some crack.....thats gonna be the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NAM.... Got it. Thanks. Thought the NHC maps really pushed it quite a bit west day 5, so was confused. Obviously will probably change again, but hope it goes west if not out to sea, which doesn't look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Really surprised by the editing on the NHC cone today. Really expected them to hang in there til tomorrow. Hate to see people write this off when they see this and it be premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Regan said: Yeah. They did. More west. The NHC keeps taking away and away. West and west. Not sure I buy it. Idk. I buy it. What's the pull it that far north? There is ridging to the east, and no real trough over the eastern US, just a weakness over the south. It's going to go into that and die. The question isn't how far east, but how far west. It's always been that. The more easterly runs just had less pull with that feature. Tweaks, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 The 3k NAM which did surprising well with Harvey has the center just offshore Miami then turning north, still would be a tough hit for the SE corner of Florida and the immediate coast.... it only goes out to 60hr but the setup is a bit more progressive with the trough and a touch more realistic IMO, the high placement over the GL would let it get up Charleston to ILM before landfall I bet, it doesnt have the high hanging back as far as the regular NAM so it would still end up moving NNW I think. Its basically the playbook for how this has to evolve to get the storm up this way. The question is what made it run that much more east this time around its been very close with the Euro and GFS for a few days now more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 GFS is running so let's see what she says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Regan said: Really surprised by the editing on the NHC cone today. Really expected them to hang in there til tomorrow. Hate to see people write this off when they see this and it be premature. There are already people talking about FL evacuees going to Charleston to stay on Twitter. Even if the main part of the storm stays west of the Carolinas, it will still be good practice. But how awful is it going to be for Florida? You have to feel for those people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The NAM came back east...that is all, and its the NAM but it could also be picking up on something with the trough hanging in longer and that could shift the track more east...It's all in how the nam is handling the trough. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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