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Hurricane Irma

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

What's the elevation of the island you're gonna be on?

I'm well over 20 feet.

I have no concerns about surge here.  The local HLS said 5-8 feet.  Juno is tough to flood to begin with and I'm on just about the highest ground here. 

 Wind is going to be my worst enemy.  A south and southwest wind is the most vulnerable for my home.  I'm hopeful some trees and a house behind me can help break some of the wind. 

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tageeboy

tageeboy

Posted
Posted

One of the fellow in my bitcoin trading group mentioned this thread. Great info everyone is posting here. Wanted to say thanks for sharing. Sitting in Tampa waiting to see how this goes. St Pete issued mandatory evacuation notices starting in the early AM tomorrow so have friends from there coming to camp out. Generators fueled up and we are waiting to see what happens to Tampa. Bad feeling it will swamp downtown if we get any sort of a surge. Good thing is people are taking this serious. No gas, bottled water, or food to be found in New Tampa. Shelves are blown out but we still expect trucks to arrive before the storm. Will post a live stream if we have anything here worth sharing. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

I'm well over 20 feet.

I have no concerns about surge here.  The local HLS said 5-8 feet.  Juno is tough to flood to begin with and I'm on just about the highest ground here. 

 Wind is going to be my worst enemy.  A south and southwest wind is the most vulnerable for my home.  I'm hopeful some trees and a house behind me can help break some of the wind. 

Yeah man, I dunno how much a house-block or some trees will help if you get into the eye wall.  150mph wind gusts are pretty stout.  Hopefully the structure is really sound.  Glad surge is not an issue though.

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah man, I dunno how much a house-block or some trees will help if you get into the eye wall.  150mph wind gusts are pretty stout.  Hopefully the structure is really sound.  Glad surge is not an issue though.

Concrete structure.  Everything shuttered but one glass door which is supposedly impact resistant.  

I guess I will find out

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah man, I dunno how much a house-block or some trees will help if you get into the eye wall.  150mph wind gusts are pretty stout.  Hopefully the structure is really sound.  Glad surge is not an issue though.

Did you see the car wash they rode out Harvey in? House blocks don't play!

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Looking better for NC with the SW trend today.  I love a good hurricane but this b**** scares me.  I hope to look forward to returning this generator I got yesterday.   Plus I'm in the middle of trying to sell our house.  An oak tree sitting on the roof probably isn't a good selling feature.

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looking better for NC with the SW trend today.  I love a good hurricane but this b**** scares me.  I hope to look forward to returning this generator I got yesterday.   Plus I'm in the middle of trying to sell our house.  An oak tree sitting on the roof probably isn't a good selling feature.

Likewise for coastal SC. We're by no means out of the woods, but it's the first time in a few days where I got a break from it feeling like there was a cat 3 inbound to the southwest on Monday.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

does anyone have an estimate has to how much rain areas of NE GA/SC/NC may receive from Irma? John Cessarich (WYFF) mentioned 5-10 inches for Upstate SC.

Think he's basing that on the westward shift in the models today. It goes west of us now, more up sloping and just S/SE flow in general! I think when it was going right over us, they were saying 3-4", I havnt heard the 5-10".

i think it depends on forward motion as well

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Last couple of hours She has become much more symmetrical again, and pressure has dropped a little again, that can't be good. Hard to imagine a worse look for the state of Florida. Anyone know the records for most hours above 175 mph? 

Not sure while on mobile, but it's already been passed by Irma for storms in the Atlantic in the satellite era.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
On 8/31/2017 at 0:14 PM, jburns said:

Add the fact that as of this morning we have this complication.

The Colonial Pipeline, which carries huge amounts of gasoline and other fuel between Houston and the East Coast, is shutting down after Harvey forced the closure of refineries and some of the pipeline's own facilities.

The pipeline has two main lines that together transport more than 100 million gallons of gasoline, heating oil and aviation fuel as far as the New York harbor each day.

I was told by a friend in the know way up food chain this was coming he told me to make sure we capped off vehicles by mid week and take every opportunity to continue doing so for several weeks. Low and behold I've been asking convenient stores I frequent and they are all winding down and none on way anytime soon. Saw a couple stores that are out now. So you get the chance top off gang.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

So the only cat. 5 evidence I've seen from recon is one 137kt unflagged SFMR reading in shallow water with 44 mm/hr rain rate. Did I miss anything or could the streak be nearing an end?

Don't know but the last update shows 919mb with 175 sustained and gusts of 215. Sounds like a cat 5. 

BTW, just heard a speed of 155 knots was recorded at ground level in Barbuda, the other night!

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bigjohndc

bigjohndc

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I was told by a friend in the know way up food chain this was coming he told me to make sure we capped off vehicles by mid week and take every opportunity to continue doing so for several weeks. Low and behold I've been asking convenient stores I frequent and they are all winding down and none on way anytime soon. Saw a couple stores that are out now. So you get the chance top off gang.

The Colonial Pipeline has been fully operational for nearly two full days, refining capacity is not fully operational in the Gulf yet, but close. There are only two counties in NC reporting anything close to shortages. Now evacuees will stretch supplies in Georgia and Florida, but lets not confuse issues. Florida doesn't get any supply from the Colonial and NC specifically has been getting shipments via the Port of Wilmington. We don't need fear mongering in areas where there aren't real shortages.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

I simply cant take the main thread anymore.  Not going back.  I'm gonna need therapy after 200 pages of that.

GA really looks to take a beating from this.  Surprised we havent had more posters from GA pop in.  Lots of folks at ATL Motor Speedway are gonna be in for a treat.  Same thing for Charlotte.  Lots of evacuees in both places in trailers and motorhomes.  Yikes!

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
Just now, senc30 said:

Not a NAM fan but it did pick up the north and east track before most

I don't know it's really been back and forth the last day. Not sure what I think..

Another subject; just because you're not in the direct line of the hurricane, don't think you'll escape winds. Here's RAH afternoon discussion: 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

...Significant impacts possible with Hurricane Irma on Mon/Tue...

Sun/Sun Night: Cloud cover will rapidly increase from the south late
Sun/Sun night as Irma tracks northward along or just offshore the FL
Atlantic coast. NE winds will noticeably pick up Sun eve/night as
the MSLP gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and
Irma to the south, becoming sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts
potentially as high as 30-40 mph.

Mon-Tue Night: The latest NHC track indicates Irma will parallel
FL`s Atlantic coast as it tracks northward Sun night/early Mon, make
landfall invof the GA/SC border Mon afternoon, then track NNW/NW
into upstate SC by Tue morning. A fair amount of uncertainty
persists with regard to Irma`s track/intensity early next week.
Although the precise degree of impact remains uncertain, confidence
is increasing that central NC will experience a period of strong NE
winds as the MSLP gradient tightens between Irma to the south and
~1025 mb high pressure over the Great Lakes. At this time, the worst
conditions are likely to occur Monday aft/eve, when NE winds will
have the potential to become sustained at 30-40 mph with gusts as
high as 50-60 mph, though the latter end of that range should be
confined to locations in the SW Piedmont. As long as there are no
significant changes to Irma`s track/intensity, a high wind watch
will probably be necessary for portions (if not all) of central NC
for the Mon/Mon Night time-frame. Irma is likely to bring 2-5" of
rain to central NC, with the greatest amounts in the W/SW Piedmont.
Although isold flash flooding will certainly be possible,
particularly in the typical flood prone areas, Irma`s motion should
be sufficient to preclude more significant rainfall and/or
widespread flooding. Thus, at this time, the primary impact with
Irma is expected to be downed trees and power outages assoc/w strong
NE winds and heavy rain Mon/Mon night.

Wed-Thu: Irma`s remnants are expected to significantly weaken and
track into the OH valley Wed, then progress slowly NE toward the
northern Mid-Atlantic and New England Thu/Thu night. Will indicate
dry conditions, though isold diurnal showers cannot be entirely
ruled out. -Vincent

&&
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