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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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11 AM NHC update below.  Max forecasted winds now at 125 MPH at days 4-5

The general synoptic situation remains well
established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move
west-southwestward through the weekend.  An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week.  There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance.  Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.

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39 minutes ago, griteater said:

11 AM NHC update below.  Max forecasted winds now at 125 MPH at days 4-5

The general synoptic situation remains well
established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move
west-southwestward through the weekend.  An upper-level low will be
dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a
key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning
westward and west-northwestward early next week.  There is a
noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance.  Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.

Hmmmm this is pretty telling they favor a more southern track thus more westward in the long run.....this is were actual forecasting and experience come in versus just hugging models...this will be the crucial interaction that sets the stage for the end game....more north is a miss, further south and a SE landfall is on the table. If this thing goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark the chances of a US landfall go up significantly IMO. Most guidance is over it or north of that in the last runs...the official NHC track looks to keep Irma south of it at this time. 

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS is a little south on the track thru 114

If neat to watch the ULL on the 500mb vort maps it totally steers the storm the 12Z yesterday had the ULL dive SW over the Haiti and Irma gets kicked north, this run the ULL is more westward moving and over the Bahamas which will pull Irma more west for sure....how much more though is tough to tell but the trough is already bottoming out at 150 and if Irma is moving more WNW than NNW she might miss it this run or at least get left behind and stall a bit....

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21 hours ago, packbacker said:

I forget how much fun day 8+ op Euro runs can be.

lol, now when I start an 8 day winter storm thread in a few months, nobody give me any grief about it! I think it's way too early to worry about this storm.  In my opinion there's just as much chance of it turning out to sea than not.  I'm not a big tropical fan as they so rarely affect CLT, but geez modeling these things long range is like herding cats.  

 

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Really after hr 144 its all up in the air and while it would be awesome to have a better agreement in that range its not gonna happen...but we do now however have pretty damn good agreement at hr 144 for her to be at or below the 20N 60W benchmark which ups the chances this gets really close or landfalls....

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

If this thing goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark the chances of a US landfall go up significantly IMO.

I've heard of that benchmark before, but there is plenty of historical precedent for recurves away from the CONUS south of that benchmark. I'm thinking in particular of Luis and Marilyn from 1995, which before '04-05 was the most hyperactive Atlantic season in recent memory. They both battered the Lesser Antilles as majors but turned out fish as far as the U.S. is concerned.

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19 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I've heard of that benchmark before, but there is plenty of historical precedent for recurves away from the CONUS south of that benchmark. I'm thinking in particular of Luis and Marilyn from 1995, which before '04-05 was the most hyperactive Atlantic season in recent memory. They both battered the Lesser Antilles as majors but turned out fish as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Its not so much that storms south of that benchmark cant/dont curve out its that almost all storms that pass NORTH of that benchmark recurve, there are some exceptions but I bet 95+% of storms that went on to hit the US went below 20/60. There are notable exceptions like Fran and Isabel that went above that benchmark and went on to hit the US....

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

CMC if it ran 3-4 more panels was probably a NC landfall over the sounds/IBX or very near miss for the OBX...Euro so far through 120 is pretty much balls on the previous run.

CMC out to 240 on meteocentre....it gets close to FL, then it turns NNE and looks like it would be off the OBX...maybe skirt it

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This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border  landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11.thumb.png.fed4907d50b1c65299efa4e253d72c15.png

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