CLTwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Well...gotta love the LATEST disco from GSP: " After 18Z Tuesday, it will probably be all over but the chainsaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Regan said: I'm hearing that the NHC is gonna shift a little at that 1 euro run? They are really hugging the euro. Hope people don't let down their guards. 5PM Discussion "The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 5PM Discussion "The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward." Twc says it's not a significant shift so we need to make sure we keep it together. The cone will possibly move again and it could be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, Met1985 said: For what it is worth the NAM brush the east coast of FL and rides up the coast a lot like the GFS did on its 12z run. Huh? This is Hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, WXinCanton said: Huh? This is Hour 84 That's 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WXinCanton said: Huh? This is Hour 84 Thats the 12Z...a lot of folks not updating their cache before posting images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That's 12Z run Duoh, I'm an Idiot. Yep, it does ride the coast here is 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Location in Turks https://www.wunderground.com/weather/tc/the-bight-settlements/IPROVIDE35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, Regan said: Twc says it's not a significant shift so we need to make sure we keep it together. The cone will possibly move again and it could be east. NHC sticking to their guns as far as a landfall south of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18Z GFS is starting. Let's see if it throws a wrench in things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Out to 12, it looks just a touch faster compared to 12Z but nothing serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: 18Z GFS is starting. Let's see if it throws a wrench in things. Yeah. Im curious about that too. I think I'll wait for the 00z like Allan suggested. People were asking if we are ok in Nc nownand he said not to let your guards down and hold on for the 00z. I'd say that's good advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Out to 24, a touch south and west of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A touch further south (and/or a tad faster) at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Out to 48 and it's a touch further south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Actually quite a bit west @54 h - almost in line with the Euro right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Slower and a good bit west at 60. Certainly appears to be following the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 19 hours ago, UpStateCAD said: Buckeye. I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew. Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands. It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. This area is extremely low. Look at the tidal flood maps. The entire area is under water with a category 3. Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area. Over 3000 killed. Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue. I'm watching Thanks for the info! I still can't believe all the damage still from Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 66 and it looks like it's not moving that much towards the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 And now due N at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is a definite shift toward the ECMWF. It's not quite as far west, but it's a lot further west than the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall south Florida at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yeah I'm seeing it more into Florida now. Was Jose this far west last time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If there's one takeaway from today it's that the prospects of avoiding a south Florida landfall are very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Ser Pounce said: Yeah I'm seeing it more into Florida now. Was Jose this far west last time around? Yes, though a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Shocking it followed the Euro.... Its the worst track for Miami, can't imagine what that city will look like if that pans out. Looks like cat 5 when it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Riding the South Florida coast at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 goes right up along the coast, over jacksonville and into se. ga. although an obvious shift west, it would likely mean a slower weakening than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Downtown Miami may look like a future dystopian apocalyptic movie scene 5 days from now. If winds on the ground are 150 mph, that means winds at 600 feet may be 170-180. Literal highrise ruins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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