Avdave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow haven said: here is a link to all counties in GA with mandatory evacuations...can you imagine I-95 right now. https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/press_release/Mandatory Evacuation Zones - Irma.jpg Its not that bad yet, it is worse in SC with pockets of delays on 95 N 95 N in SC at MM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, FLO said: And what if it doesn't? Then they just drove all these people into the worst part of the storm. Why not wait another day just to see models? Where's your degree in emergency management from again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This couldn't get any more f'd up for me if possible. I'm suppose to leave for the Isle of Palms on Saturday, but now it appears Gov. McMaster is going to issue an evacuation order Saturday morning so I'll be stuck here in Greenville. However if the 12z euro verifies, I'll be getting worse weather from Irma here in Greenville then I would be if we had just been able to go to IOP. I feel like banging my head against a brick wall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Where's your degree in emergency management from again? Kaplan University Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If anyone on the board is from Northeast NC, CVS in Elizabeth City has cases of water for $3.72 a case. Some of the other stores are selling out of water pretty quickly. Mob mentality taking over in 3... 2... 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'm new to this I'm trying to find most updated models anyone mind posting a link where I can find most updated models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Wow...only a couple of members into SC. I wonder if people evacuated to GA...that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 keep in mind we will see these west/east runs on the models over the next 48hrs prior to the turn north. 25-50miles will make ALL the difference and we won't have a good handle until we are nowcasting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Moisture will be streaming in off the Atlantic still. Places along the Blue Ridge escarpment will bet 4 to 6 inches plus and much of Nc West of CLT will get 2 plus. Areas around I 95 will get less but still 1 to 2 inches there with this current track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it. Outflow looks good in all directions, but that pesky NW quad is looking rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I hope the lol at the end of the sentence means this is a joke. Cause I know you can't be serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it. yea does anyone have this link with the long range track overlay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, packbacker said: Wow...only a couple of members into SC. I wonder if people evacuated to GA...that would suck. What website are you pulling these from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: keep in mind we will see these west/east runs on the models over the next 48hrs prior to the turn north. 25-50miles will make ALL the difference and we won't have a good handle until we are nowcasting it. Yep...models are right until they are wrong lol...she is getting close to the point where models like Euro/Ukie etc take her more WNW....if she doesnt turn more west at all then the north turn will happen well east of Miami, probably on the east side of Andros island and that of course changes everything....you wouldnt think the models are that wrong this close but then again....this was the official NHC track based on modeling literally 12 hrs before it was thrown out.....12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bluffton21 said: What website are you pulling these from? Pulled off twitter, Ryan Maue. It's from weatherbell I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: I'm new to this I'm trying to find most updated models anyone mind posting a link where I can find most updated models. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Look for Global Models > GFS & ECMWF (Euro) If you have questions, just ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Pulled off twitter, Ryan Maue. It's from weatherbell I think. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I hope the lol at the end of the sentence means this is a joke. Cause I know you can't be serious Yes there should be some big rains probably the most in the Southwest Mountains if this track is to verify!! But much less of an impact than what it look like last night of course that could change and probably will change many times before Monday!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Look for Global Models > GFS & ECMWF (Euro) If you have questions, just ask. Thank you so much!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: What website are you pulling these from? A track through northeastern Georgia, would be much worse for the Upstate than if it went right over us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it. Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'm new to this I'm trying to find most updated models anyone mind posting a link where I can find most updated models. Use Tropical Tidbits. Just google it and it will pop up. It's a free site and then you can see all the different models Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, gman said: A track through northeastern Georgia, would be much worse for the Upstate than if it went right over us, right? Yes I'm on the fence about leaving. If it keeps this current track I don't see the point. Me and the wife stay in West Ashley we bunkered in last year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk If on east side of Low pressure Windy ,and rain buckets. lots of moisture riding up the chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, alhooks13 said: Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up. The 00Z GFS last night ran it all the way to Miami then all the way to the SC/NC border...so in that sense it could get that far west and still go farther north, but in general the more west she tracks the more likely a GA hit is, if she ducks south of track and takes a more west heading close to Cuba then she wont feel the trough as much and be able to get south of Florida then turn up like the Euro had..and if she stays on her current heading or wobbles north then she probably turns father east and increase the chances of a Charleston to Wilmington landfall. I feel pretty strongly that she will turn north close to Florida but if you consider it could be 50 miles either side of that point you get a 100 mile wide spread, that will have pretty big implications on the weather from Florida on north. The NHC track has Irma 120 miles SW of Andros island when she turns....if she stay on the current heading she would make the turn over Andros island thats a pretty big difference... We will learn a lot I think over the next 12-24 hrs as to where she is going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 For what it is worth the NAM brush the east coast of FL and rides up the coast a lot like the GFS did on its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'm hearing that the NHC is gonna shift a little at that 1 euro run? They are really hugging the euro. Hope people don't let down their guards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If on east side of Low pressure Windy ,and rain buckets. lots of moisture riding up the chain.That could be correct? depends on how quick it weakens and dissipates I'm sure it will change many times before Monday one way or the otherSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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