Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On the Euro do the remnants kind of just meander around the TN area for a day or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 And the Euro goes with the UKIE again,shocking. Euro/UKIE/NAM look real close at day 3 with the GFS getting there as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If there were playing a drinking game where you had to take a shot every time a model flip-flopped, we'd be in some serious trouble. The models still have a lot to iron out over the next few days.. that's more obvious than ever right now. Got a long ways to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Folks in the main thread raise a good point and one I tried to bring up earlier. Irma being a cutoff low and Jose being so close by will open up the door for Jose to "possibly" walk right on in to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro matches up with UK as it has a very similar track...and GEFS had many members just like that, which matches the mean of the GEFS. I guess the only hope now is that it gets weakened some by Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Folks in the main thread raise a good point and one I tried to bring up earlier. Irma being a cutoff low and Jose being so close by will open up the door for Jose to "possibly" walk right on in to the east coast. I wouldn't count on much out of Jose in the end....just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: And the Euro goes with the UKIE again,shocking. Euro/UKIE/NAM look real close at day 3 with the GFS getting there as usual. Yep I want be betting against them thats for sure. Wash Rinse repeat. Be interested in watching Jose now and all the sufferage on TV news unfortunately for Florida folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 As someone who had $35K worth of damage from Isabel, I’m not taking anything for granted. It’s better to be safe rather than sorry as most of us here in Eastern/Northeastern NC usually are. We got swamped with Matthew last year due to model flip flops so I’m going to be ready for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12Z Euro = A Lookout special! Some 80 mph gusts!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yep I want be betting against them thats for sure. Wash Rinse repeat. Be interested in watching Jose now and all the sufferage on TV news unfortunately for Florida folks. According to the main thread, looks like the 12z shifted a little north and tracks more or less between the GFS/ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, packfan98 said: And now, we are back to it staying over land through FL. That would significantly lessen the impacts to the rest of SE. Still has me and close to ATL with 70+ mph gusts! Scary after riding up Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane Andrew on the left and Hurricane Irma on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Ser Pounce said: What are your thoughts on Atlanta in general with regard to Irma? Just too soon to say right now other than to say expect some rain and breezy conditions. If the gfs and similar tracks to that panned out, tropical storm force gusts up to 50 to 60mph could certainly be expected. If it goes any further east though, not much more than your typical more windy than normal post cold frontal day in winter. Assuming a Ga landfall and it moving further west toward atlanta, obviously that puts atlanta into hurricane force gusts. I was going to say if the 12z euro panned out, winds wouldn't be so much of an issue vs having a lot of rain due to it spending so much time over land but it obviously has other ideas. Needless to say, it's wind forecast is pretty bullish. 1 hour ago, jburns said: A short interruption from our regularly scheduled program. I just want to thank you all for keeping this thread on topic with a minimum amount of drama and without the need for a mod to be looking over your shoulders. Since I've been spending a vast percentage of my time in the main thread, where none of the above is taking place, I wanted to make sure you all know how much I, and I'm sure our other mods, appreciate both the amount of information and the tone of this thread. Carry on. This X 1000. Always been proud of the southeast crew for being able to behave and act mature adults and more so than every other region. It is very much appreciated by all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It's just one run, but from a coastal SC perspective that track is magic and it wouldn't bother me for the others to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I hate to see this hit anybody but the selfish part of me is happy to see it trending away from me in SE NC. With that said, I fully expect the GFS and EURO to lose their minds and send it back this way before sending it away again just to mess with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12Z Euro = A Lookout special! Some 80 mph gusts!? lol..that's a north georgia and upstate sc special all the way around. I'm honestly a bit surprised it's that high given how long it has it staying over land. Maybe some of it is partially because of the squeeze play between the low and the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Lookout said: lol..that's a north georgia and upstate sc special all the way around. I'm honestly a bit surprised it's that high given how long it has it staying over land. Maybe some of it is partially because of the squeeze play between the low and the mountains? And maybe the gradient between the super strong high to the North!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So she goes right up the center of Florida like someone had drawn a line. Life giving warm water to the right and left and she heads straight for the interior of Ga. to die. A lot like Buridan's ass. Go ahead, look it up. You know you want to. I was a teacher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: lol..that's a north georgia and upstate sc special all the way around. I'm honestly a bit surprised it's that high given how long it has it staying over land. Maybe some of it is partially because of the squeeze play between the low and the mountains? I don't know, the winds are tearing through south Central GA too on the 12z Euro. Just a crazy run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, Met1985 said: On the Euro do the remnants kind of just meander around the TN area for a day or two? It does look look like that in Central TN or Southern KY general area. Then fizzles out there. Its amazing to see the difference on the Euro Vs the GFS on the latest runs. Euro just pounds Ft Myers and Naples area. Then blast its way through central FL to off the coast near Jax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GA, mandatory evac. all counties East of I-95, SC evac. is voluntary now, likely mandatory 10AM Saturday for coastal counties. Colleges on the coast closing now, asking students to go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Avdave said: It does look look like that in Central TN or Southern KY general area. Then fizzles out there. Its amazing to see the difference on the Euro Vs the GFS on the latest runs. Euro just pounds Ft Myers and Naples area. Then blast its way through central FL to off the coast near Jax That area(Cent.Tenn/Ky) just received 6-10+ inches rain from Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, jpbart said: GA, mandatory evac. all counties East of I-95, SC evac. is voluntary now, likely mandatory 10AM Saturday for coastal counties. Colleges on the coast closing now, asking students to go home. If the Euro holds true, anyone on the coast of SC/GA needs to stay put. They are safer than going inland. Do these people not watch models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, FLO said: If the Euro holds true, anyone on the coast of SC/GA needs to stay put. They are safer than going inland. Do these people not watch models? Until the next model run puts them under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, DJnVa said: Until the next model run puts them under the gun. And what if it doesn't? Then they just drove all these people into the worst part of the storm. Why not wait another day just to see models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: And maybe the gradient between the super strong high to the North!? lol..yeah. i meant to add that but what's funny is The high isn't terribly strong to say the least.....only 1025 to 1028mb depending on which model you look at by the time it gets to ga ....but obviously it doesn't have to be considering how low the min pressure is with irma so the gradient would in fact be intense. This is truly a special and unique event to see in our life times though because i doubt you will find many cases where even a weak tropical system moves in this fashion with a high in damming position. Going to be absolutely fascinating to see how it plays out for Ga, Sc, and the mountains. 23 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: I don't know, the winds are tearing through south Central GA too on the 12z Euro. Just a crazy run for sure. That's not surprising since they are a lot closer to landfall but one would think by the time it got here it would be weaker. Now mind you florida is flatter and having water on both sides would help preserve the cane more so than hitting anywhere else but if you look you will notice that there is even an increase in 10 meter gusts in south ga vs north florida. For comparison it is like a cane making landfall in LA and hurricane force wind gusts making it all the way to southern IL or central MO or something. Crazy indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, jpbart said: GA, mandatory evac. all counties East of I-95, SC evac. is voluntary now, likely mandatory 10AM Saturday for coastal counties. Colleges on the coast closing now, asking students to go home. here is a link to all counties in GA with mandatory evacuations...can you imagine I-95 right now. https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/press_release/Mandatory Evacuation Zones - Irma.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, FLO said: If the Euro holds true, anyone on the coast of SC/GA needs to stay put. They are safer than going inland. Do these people not watch models? I'd like to think that reasons like uncertainty in modeling or focusing on the cone, not the line are why SC held off on announcing mandatory evacuations. In reality... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: That area(Cent.Tenn/Ky) just received 6-10+ inches rain from Harvey. Yeah this wont be pretty if indeed it does turn out this way and Irma goes to pass away in that region and also Western KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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