JoshM Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS further NW towards florida @ hr 60, compared to 0z. Hours 66 and 72 still a touch NW of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At 108 it looks to be west (from 0z) heading for the central SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like somewhere between Charleston and Georgetown is going to get clobbered this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: At 108 it looks to be west (from 0z) heading for the central SC coast. Charleston or North Charleston landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 By 114 it near Columbia. Looks like it came in at the south/central SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: By 114 it near Columbia. Looks like it came in at the south/central SC coast. We're going back to the solution from yesterdays 0z. Maybe we can finally start some consistency, if the euro comes back a pinch from it's GA track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Charleston or North Charleston landfall. I think anywhere from the Ga/SC boarder to the SC/NC boarder will be the eventual hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: I think anywhere from the Ga/SC boarder to the SC/NC boarder will be the eventual hit. I'm just ready to get this darn cone narrowed down so evacuations won't be as insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: We're going back to the solution from yesterdays 0z. Maybe we can finally start some consistency, if the euro comes back a pinch from it's GA track. Not sure what kind of consistency we'll ever get. Even a day out, these types of storms seem to have a mind of their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: I'm just ready to get this darn cone narrowed down so evacuations won't be as insane. Want to hear something funny; my sister is actually coming to my house to get away from the storm. She lives in Fort Myers Florida. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: I'm just ready to get this darn cone narrowed down so evacuations won't be as insane. Ditto and to just end this already. NHC just added another day. This is like all the horror movie hallway scenes where you run and run and the hall stretches longer and longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Regan said: Ditto and to just end this already. NHC just added another day. This is like all the horror movie hallway scenes where you run and run and the hall stretches longer and longer. I've been through bunches of these being in eastern NC. I don't know why I thought this one was going to be easy to figure out but I was wrong. 4 to 5 more days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 From RAH: Turning attention to Hurricane Irma, there are many possibilities that still exist for both track and intensity of the storm and it is too early to type up the fine print on exactly which scenario will play out. What we do know is that North Carolina remains in the envelope of possibilities and people should be making preparations for possible effects by early next week. Best guess for timing of potential impacts at this time would be to start feeling effects on Monday with Monday night into Tuesday the best guess for greatest impacts from the storm and exiting the area Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The situation is expected to remain fluid and we urge following the forecasts released by the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 AM Tuesday , the path has a Cat 1 still , just South of CAE!! 85 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 46 minutes ago, JoshM said: I'm just ready to get this darn cone narrowed down so evacuations won't be as insane. True, because evacuating the entire state within X miles from the coast would be a total zoo. Hypothetical time since GFS models a worst case scenario for Charleston on this one with landfall roughly at Kiawah Island between 2 and 3PM... At 2.5 miles downriver from my location the tide peaks at 6.3' at 12:36PM (South Ashley River Bridge, downtown) so this would be about the worst case for storm surge. Wind direction doesn't help either since it's pointed from the ocean straight into the harbor and up the Ashley/Cooper Rivers. In the city you get category 1 sustained winds + gusts around 110. Power isn't coming back on for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'm going with a MIA LF followed by a GA/SC LF. IMO we will find out by this evening if MIA is really likely to get it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That's quite an interaction with Katia and the trough..I read a day or two ago that this may help to deepen the trough hence the slower retreat some models have..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, JoshM said: Charleston or North Charleston landfall. Just a point of reference...there is a North Charleston that is about 15 miles inland. In this case, poster is talking Sullivans Island, Isle of Palms, Dewees Island, Capers Island, Bulls Bay, McClellanville... those who remember Hugo, McClellanville got destroyed. Even the elementary school used as a refuge shelter had rescues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earendil Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 hours ago, Dunkman said: Ok the UKMET is out. Rather than posting maps I'll just do a quick pbp. It crashes into Cuba again, weakens substantially, goes over Key West then crosses FL SW to NE exiting around Cape Canaveral then another landfall at Charleston. This is right over my house. How accurate do we think this is when all the other models are still putting it near Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GEFS followed the OP relatively closely -- the mean is probably a bit west of the OP. None of the members show an out to sea solution on this run (much like yesterday's runs didn't). Normally I would expect a northerly/easterly shift, but the ECMWF and UKMET give me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Keep seeing it's only a cat 1 before it hits land on the coast. What? Maybe they need to do the hand drawn maps better on tv? Moved the marking inland some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: GEFS followed the OP relatively closely -- the mean is probably a bit west of the OP. None of the members show an out to sea solution on this run (much like yesterday's runs didn't). Normally I would expect a northerly/easterly shift, but the ECMWF and UKMET give me pause. Big differences in the effects felt around my back yard. The Euro track would probably bring 75 mph gusts atleast, the tracks that hit the SC coast and go N / NE, would give me very little rain and wind, while giving Raleigh quite a few issues. Gonna be a tense few days, can't imagine being in Florida right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Big differences in the effects felt around my back yard. The Euro track would probably bring 75 mph gusts atleast, the tracks that hit the SC coast and go N / NE, would give me very little rain and wind, while giving Raleigh quite a few issues. Gonna be a tense few days, can't imagine being in Florida right now! Yep...Euro is really not that much for Raleigh while for your backyard it's really bad. It's hard to imagine the Euro getting beat by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Yep...Euro is really not that much for Raleigh while for your backyard it's really bad. It's hard to imagine the Euro getting beat by the GFS. But really the GFS is very similar to Euro save a few offlandish runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: But really the GFS is very similar to Euro save a few offlandish runs. Well Euro is riding the FL coast and go inland in GA and GFS is off the coast and goes inland much further north into SC. At day 4+ it's not a big difference as the idea is the same but will be huge for places like MYR/ILM and CHS/SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...Euro is really not that much for Raleigh while for your backyard it's really bad. It's hard to imagine the Euro getting beat by the GFS. Euro lost to the GFS with mathew last year. Euro showed him hauling butt east in by the weakness nicole created but we all know that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Some better agreement with the hurricane models .. 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, shaggy said: Euro lost to the GFS with mathew last year. Euro showed him hauling butt east in by the weakness nicole created but we all know that didn't happen. Other people have said the GFS did better then Euro for Matthew but need to go check out the old threads. Also, this is a completely different GFS and an upgraded Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Seems like most of the hurricane models keep it off the florida coast, some closer than others. We should be getting in their range for florida atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: I'm going with a MIA LF followed by a GA/SC LF. IMO we will find out by this evening if MIA is really likely to get it or not. Hard to bet against the Euro when it has support from its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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