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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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Just now, packbacker said:

I forget how much fun day 8+ op Euro runs can be.

Its going  to be a LONG 7-10 days lol.....dont forget ol Jose either the Euro has him nearing the lesser Antilles and the GFS had him right off Hatteras.....could be a 1-2 punch Irma into the west GOM or Florida then Jose into the Carolinas.

Euro ends up destroying the Florida Keys at 240 with a 942 right on top of Key West with a north turn probably likely....

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Its going  to be a LONG 7-10 days lol.....dont forget ol Jose either the Euro has him nearing the lesser Antilles and the GFS had him right off Hatteras.....could be a 1-2 punch Irma into the west GOM or Florida then Jose into the Carolinas.

Euro ends up destroying the Florida Keys at 240 with a 942 right on top of Key West with a north turn probably likely....

 

Disaster for the keys and eventually panhandle...but GFS says it will be partly breezy.  And Jose says wait for me...

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_11.png

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

There's no way that moves north for at least 7-8 days if the EURO is right.A 597 death ridge in the Atlantic,588dm-590dm pressing well into NC,SC,GA,and Fla.

The ULL will be a huge player in this, how it and Irma interact will be one of the keys to where  she ends up and sadly models usually handle ULL's poorly....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Saw an article on this and a gas "expert" said as soon as the pipelines start back up, prices would rapidly fall! Gonna have to call BS on that one!

Gov. Cooper has declared a state of emergency over potential gas shortage.

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33 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Wonder how soon they will start the G-IV missions to sample the upper level patterns over the ATL to give the models better info....they have a heck of a range and could easily fly out of Puerto Rico etc. 

Range of a G-IV 4,220 nmi (7,815 km) that's about 4850 Miles

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36 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Wonder how soon they will start the G-IV missions to sample the upper level patterns over the ATL to give the models better info....they have a heck of a range and could easily fly out of Puerto Rico etc. 

Doesn't seem like it's worth it until at least a week from now. It's got a ways to go.

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9 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Doesn't seem like it's worth it until at least a week from now. It's got a ways to go.

That's not necessarily true for the Lesser Antilles and the rest of the Caribbean which the US does have some interests in. Besides sampling the environment down there and incorporating it into the model runs may give them a better idea of the eventual track.

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