packbacker Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, packfan98 said: That's going to be bad for someone in the US if it slides just north of all of the major land masses. No weakening! I forget how much fun day 8+ op Euro runs can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Cane parade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 There's no way that moves north for at least 7-8 days if the EURO is right.A 597 death ridge in the Atlantic,588dm-590dm pressing well into NC,SC,GA,and Fla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 and by 240 she's in the gulf pretty unscathed...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: I forget how much fun day 8+ op Euro runs can be. Its going to be a LONG 7-10 days lol.....dont forget ol Jose either the Euro has him nearing the lesser Antilles and the GFS had him right off Hatteras.....could be a 1-2 punch Irma into the west GOM or Florida then Jose into the Carolinas. Euro ends up destroying the Florida Keys at 240 with a 942 right on top of Key West with a north turn probably likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Its going to be a LONG 7-10 days lol.....dont forget ol Jose either the Euro has him nearing the lesser Antilles and the GFS had him right off Hatteras.....could be a 1-2 punch Irma into the west GOM or Florida then Jose into the Carolinas. Euro ends up destroying the Florida Keys at 240 with a 942 right on top of Key West with a north turn probably likely.... Disaster for the keys and eventually panhandle...but GFS says it will be partly breezy. And Jose says wait for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Need to add it to the Euro vs GFS diff chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: There's no way that moves north for at least 7-8 days if the EURO is right.A 597 death ridge in the Atlantic,588dm-590dm pressing well into NC,SC,GA,and Fla. The ULL will be a huge player in this, how it and Irma interact will be one of the keys to where she ends up and sadly models usually handle ULL's poorly.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 So we still have Euro taking it to the Gulf and GFS taking it way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 All but 1 of the 18z intensity models have Irma getting up to a major hurricane and staying there. One model weakens it to a tropical wave by Saturday and that seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Saw an article on this and a gas "expert" said as soon as the pipelines start back up, prices would rapidly fall! Gonna have to call BS on that one! Gov. Cooper has declared a state of emergency over potential gas shortage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Stronger ridging on the 18z so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 56 minutes ago, jburns said: Gov. Cooper has declared a state of emergency over potential gas shortage. Maybe he'll suspend the 50 cent plus gas tax per gallon. Doubt how it effects my pocket change is the concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 18Z GFS was the token NE gets destroyed run for the NE weenies to cling too lol....still it was further west than the last run....gonna be a fun week of model watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The one line takeaway from the 18Z GFS is that the run was west of 12Z. All we can say is that decreases the chance of an escape to the northeast. 9 more days and 36 more GFS runs to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, jburns said: Gov. Cooper has declared a state of emergency over potential gas shortage. It's going up hard. 30 cents/gallon at most stations today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1955/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 58 minutes ago, Wow said: It's going up hard. 30 cents/gallon at most stations today. Already had some lines at the pumps today. That 30 cent jump got lots of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 And if Irma goes into the gulf, it'll only get worse. I'm disabled and rarely go out, I feel bad for folks that need gas and possible big time shortages. By the looks of the Euro, this thing is going to hit the mainland US IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro has a large circulation on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Pardon me, it's been 12 years since I've seen so much activity in the hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 hours ago, packbacker said: Disaster for the keys and eventually panhandle...but GFS says it will be partly breezy. And Jose says wait for me... From what I've seen over the years, when the models show back to back storms like that, the weaker system typically ends up fading out....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 No worries on Irma, all the weenies in SNE are claiming this to be the big one like every Tropical System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 53 minutes ago, Wow said: Pardon me, it's been 12 years since I've seen so much activity in the hurricane season. Indeed, I think September will be hurricane appreciation month. Hope everyone can stay safe, and no one ever receives 50 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The track is a little different so far, but Irma's early intensity reminds me of Isabel. Long way to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Wonder how soon they will start the G-IV missions to sample the upper level patterns over the ATL to give the models better info....they have a heck of a range and could easily fly out of Puerto Rico etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Wonder how soon they will start the G-IV missions to sample the upper level patterns over the ATL to give the models better info....they have a heck of a range and could easily fly out of Puerto Rico etc. Range of a G-IV 4,220 nmi (7,815 km) that's about 4850 Miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 36 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Wonder how soon they will start the G-IV missions to sample the upper level patterns over the ATL to give the models better info....they have a heck of a range and could easily fly out of Puerto Rico etc. Doesn't seem like it's worth it until at least a week from now. It's got a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Doesn't seem like it's worth it until at least a week from now. It's got a ways to go. That's not necessarily true for the Lesser Antilles and the rest of the Caribbean which the US does have some interests in. Besides sampling the environment down there and incorporating it into the model runs may give them a better idea of the eventual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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