senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Landfall @126 southern SC. As was mentioned, it moved back north some, probably 50/75 miles north this landfall compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 We don't have an impacts thread here so I'll put this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Still the NW push inland after Carolinas landfall !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 We have MIA / SAV / CHS and who knows possibly even more of SC at risk of a major hurricane. Exciting times, somebody is going to lose to Irma. Could be all of the above and some of she tracks just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still the NW push inland after Carolinas landfall !? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Should Irma come inland as the last few model runs have suggested. You could expect widespread flooding and damage in the mountains as well. Perfect setup for uplift along the escarpment. Rivaling Frances or Ivan in terms of notoriety in parts of the S. Apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Impressive storm on land moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Still the NW push inland after Carolinas landfall !? Thats not gonna change probably, the high dropping down is well modeled....the where exactly Irma turns is still up for grabs, this is why how and where she turns north matters, also the trough timing the faster the trough slips offshore the sooner the high can build in or vice versa....that why you see the runs move every time they run....they play it a little different every time and thus we get different results....basically the sooner Irma turns to the N/NE the farther up the coast she will get....but at some point she will have to move back NW as the high blocks her escape....how quick or sharp that is depends on the high and its placement/strength etc....again there a lot of things the models are trying to figure out and how they all interact will ultimately decide where Irma goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Impressive storm on land moving through. If I were in the SW NC mtns I'd be ready for some hurricane force gusts at elevation above 3-4K feet. You and snojoe need to watch this situation carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: If I were in the SW NC mtns I'd be ready for some hurricane force gusts at elevation above 3-4K feet. You and snojoe need to watch this situation carefully. Yeah I was thinking about that earlier when Lookout was posting about elevation. Sea level wind is one thing but when you get into 3, 4, 5, thousand feet elevation it becomes a totally different beast. If this books it inland into our area things will go down hill quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At least its moving pretty fast so inland flooding will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I just moved here https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/gusts-3h-mph/20170912-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Storm isn't moving much between 120-138,in SC for about 18 hours until it gets up to about Brevard at a weakened 992mb. Nothing like Hugo in forward motion,that went through there in 6 or 7 hours with fast forward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Climo rules. Chill out everbody. Climo says it will curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Storm isn't moving much between 120-138,in SC for about 18 hours until it gets up to about Brevard at a weakened 992mb. Nothing like Hugo in forward motion,that went through there in 6 or 7 hours with fast forward motion. Yep Hugo comparisons I get from angle,landfall point, strength. But Hugo like Hazel back in the day for NC was booking it. Makes a world of difference in wind effects way inland from a wind standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 49 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: We have MIA / SAV / CHS and who knows possibly even more of SC at risk of a major hurricane. Exciting times, somebody is going to lose to Irma. Could be all of the above and some of she tracks just right. Exciting? No, this is a serious storm. Lives are at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Storm isn't moving much between 120-138,in SC for about 18 hours until it gets up to about Brevard at a weakened 992mb. Nothing like Hugo in forward motion,that went through there in 6 or 7 hours with fast forward motion. Hugo went from Charleston to Hickory in 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, gman said: Exciting? No, this is a serious storm. Lives are at stake. Irma will do what she's going to do no matter how many weenies wish the worst. Personally I find Irma very exciting. She's not a common beast. Lots to learn and lots of disaster potential. On another note : she has to be close to setting some ace records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, gman said: Exciting? No, this is a serious storm. Lives are at stake. Doesn't make it any less exciting. Wanting it to hit or not wanting it to hit won't make a difference. Realizing that this is a once-in-a-generation event that we're getting to witness is exciting and amazing for nerds like me. Anyway, ensembles unsurprisingly shifted a bit east. Mean landfall is near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Have 4 employees from PR and 1 from DR. Thankfully eye missed San Juan by a wide enough margin that their family, friends back home have avoided a major catastrophe. They where on pins and needles this morning. Use to Hurricanes but not cat 5s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm not going to put up with a debate over what is exciting and what is not. Stick to the topic and save the ethical debate until after the storm is over. This thread will NOT become the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan Radar suggests a double eyewall has formed. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Thats not gonna change probably, the high dropping down is well modeled....the where exactly Irma turns is still up for grabs, this is why how and where she turns north matters, also the trough timing the faster the trough slips offshore the sooner the high can build in or vice versa....that why you see the runs move every time they run....they play it a little different every time and thus we get different results....basically the sooner Irma turns to the N/NE the farther up the coast she will get....but at some point she will have to move back NW as the high blocks her escape....how quick or sharp that is depends on the high and its placement/strength etc....again there a lot of things the models are trying to figure out and how they all interact will ultimately decide where Irma goes... Due to this high, can we be reasonably certain that any trend NE would be limited? I'm asking because it seems like so many of these storms end up trending further to the East at the last minute. It's also why NC has been hit so many times in recent history as opposed to SC/GA. Is the OTS scenario a pipe dream at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 44 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Irma will do what she's going to do no matter how many weenies wish the worst. Personally I find Irma very exciting. She's not a common beast. Lots to learn and lots of disaster potential. On another note : she has to be close to setting some ace records. Irma set the record for 24 hour ACE in the Atlantic yesterday. There may be more that's the one I know of. Hell will probably break her own record today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 52 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yep Hugo comparisons I get from angle,landfall point, strength. But Hugo like Hazel back in the day for NC was booking it. Makes a world of difference in wind effects way inland from a wind standpoint. Hugo was moving NW at 35-40 mph,big wind maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Unreal That's got to be 30+ hrs with winds at 180 or higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Can someone explain what this is please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, FLO said: Can someone explain what this is please? This is the radar from San Juan, pr. Setting is "base velocity tilt 1". It's showing wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Also I think it's important to note that in most hurricanes those wind speeds at elevation would not be representative of surface winds. However, Irma has absolutely demonstrated over the last couple days that it is mixing the strongest winds right down to the surface. I still can't believe the 161kt dropsonde, I don't remember seeing anything close to that on a drop before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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