senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 May be a crazy question but could newly minted Hurricane Katia have any affect on Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GSP doesn't believe we'll see any hurricane gusts though. All this is to say that impacts are looking more likely for our area at this time. The potential is there for all modes of tropical threats, including heavy rainfall, gusty winds (though getting anything to hurricane force up here would be very, very difficult), and even isolated tropical cyclone tornadoes could be in play if just the right (or more accurately, wrong) track occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 I need one of yall to come smack me in the head if I click on the main tropical page thread again....its crazy bad... NAM is interesting for sure, cause the motion the storm has right now is more in line with the eastern tracks IF IF IF it holds up for any length of time, it would take Irma north of the Turks and Caicos, most runs that have it there end up further up the coast....most runs that go west to Florida etc are much more WNW and south of the Turks and Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: GSP doesn't believe we'll see any hurricane gusts though. All this is to say that impacts are looking more likely for our area at this time. The potential is there for all modes of tropical threats, including heavy rainfall, gusty winds (though getting anything to hurricane force up here would be very, very difficult), and even isolated tropical cyclone tornadoes could be in play if just the right (or more accurately, wrong) track occurs. Think they are widely waiting on the next day or two of model runs ! They don't want panic, but if it tracks like today's Euro, I promise CAE to GSP and CLT would see hurricane gusts atleast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I need one of yall to come smack me in the head if I click on the main tropical page thread again....its crazy bad... NAM is interesting for sure, cause the motion the storm has right now is more in line with the eastern tracks IF IF IF it holds up for any length of time, it would take Irma north of the Turks and Caicos, most runs that have it there end up further up the coast....most runs that go west to Florida etc are much more WNW and south of the Turks and Caicos. The eye is missing PR by a decent amount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Think they are widely waiting on the next day or two of model runs ! They don't want panic, but if it tracks like today's Euro, I promise CAE to GSP and CLT would see hurricane gusts atleast! There wording is spot on in my opinion considering this thing is still 5 days away. It is enough to grab your attention but not to plant things in cement currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 And here comes the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Visualization of winds Monday morning at 12z from GFS output - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/11/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-78.85,33.29,2101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Through 18 the 18Z seems a touch slower then the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Out to 36, 18Z is a touch North of previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Out to 66, still North of 12Z. Strength is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I need one of yall to come smack me in the head if I click on the main tropical page thread again....its crazy bad... NAM is interesting for sure, cause the motion the storm has right now is more in line with the eastern tracks IF IF IF it holds up for any length of time, it would take Irma north of the Turks and Caicos, most runs that have it there end up further up the coast....most runs that go west to Florida etc are much more WNW and south of the Turks and Caicos. Main thread is a disaster. That forum has come a long way from the awesomeness it used to contain years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At hr 72 turning northSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Heading north at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Also a considerable bit NE of 12zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Also Jose is trending faster behind her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 gfs stays consistent, east of 12z but overall it has been dead on re: miami scraper and savannah-ish landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like no landfall in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 892 heading north at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Still off the Coast of Florida at hour 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At hour 102 it's heading NE.. The waters off Florida is pure hurricane jet fuelSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I found 184 mph before image refreshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs stays consistent, east of 12z but overall it has been dead on re: miami scraper and savannah-ish landfall At 102 and I don't believe it will be a Savannah landfall. Thinking further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I wonder if this is Jose "pulling" it east, or just standard model noise. Edit: Looks like it might be the NE trof hanging back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I wonder if this is Jose "pulling" it east, or just standard model noise. Edit: Looks like it might be the NE trof hanging back?Yes. The key to this whole forecast is the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This run may hit (destroy) somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington. Jeebus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, WarmNose said: This run may hit (destroy) somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington. Jeebus It's somehow stronger this run at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Appears landfall will be about 75 miles north or the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, senc30 said: Appears landfall will be about 75 miles north or the 12Z Pretty much on top of the 6Z landfall location, judging by eyesight alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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