packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: They are all pretty close really, but 50 miles on either side of where it turns makes a huge difference for both south Florida and locations up the coast. The model tracks are clustered more narrow than the NHC cone at this point by the look of things. Good point. It also shows why the Hurricane Center doesn't make huge shifts in their track every 3 hours. Slow adjustments and trust the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snovary said: Nam still convinced it turns early. Watching these runs the last 4 days or so has been like watching a windshield wiper. Here in NC I guess we need to expect anything. Plan for the worst. Hope for the best. Can't shake the feeling it'll be like the NAM, turn early, and slam into NC. Wouldn't be the first time. I'm burnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: Nam still convinced it turns early. Most don't put any weight in the NAM outside of 48 hours at the max. Especially if it's way different than the other models. It usually falls in line as time goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 One difference in the path Irma takes in the Bahamas seems to be a little finger ridge the models have that cause that WNW motion in the Bahamas....this type of feature is really hard for the models to predict even a few days out. Here is the 18Z last night that has the NC hit notice the 591 line is broken down and allowing a more north motion.... Here is the latest GFS run showing the finger ridge stronger thus Irma goes more WSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Interesting by by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 which model has been most consistent with the track so far?... as far as where is has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 HWRF and GFS comparison.. I know HWRF is short range just comparing locations.. FWIW HWRF is similar to the NAM once it approaches the Bahamas area Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, Lookout said: The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. The other thing with this will be the rains, obviously, but most of the Carolinas have had a relatively wet summer, so this , with the tropical rains, and winds in the areas as modeled today, could multiply all of the damages! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow haven said: which model has been most consistent with the track so far?... as far as where is has been Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It's going to miss Puerto Rico, the eye is not going to landfall there! Is that on track with the current projected path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 912.5 911.3mb Waiting on dropsonde data. Recon took a tight circle around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It's going to miss Puerto Rico, the eye is not going to landfall there! Is that on track with the current projected path? decent wobble to the NW last few frames the overall motion today has been just north of WNW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: decent wobble to the NW last few frames the overall motion today has been just north of WNW.... As I mentioned earlier going to be interesting to see if it's just a wobble or a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Solak said: Recon took a tight circle around the eye. I would not want to be in that plane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 If it's not a wobble and is an actual trend to the north, that will affect the track down the line. It's close to getting to the point that 50 miles north now could be terrible for someone in 4 days. Still so long to go with this storm and honestly, the track will change probably 15 times between then and now. I go back to as recently as last year with some of.the models and professionals saying Matthew was going into Florida. 4 days later, my house say in the middle of 4 foot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The NAM(yes I know, not the best) showed before any of them the Northward turn. It's running now and is north and slightly east of it's last run at 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 911 mb, the lowest on Solaks post! Incredible! Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 It might miss the next plot the NHC has by 20 miles so its not that far off...but if this motion continued it would miss the next mark by a good bit...but they wobble around so its to soon to call this a change in direction...damn good wobble though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 911 mb, the lowest on Solaks post! Incredible! Thanks for posting! not quite the center either it appears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, senc30 said: The NAM(yes I know, not the best) showed before any of them the Northward turn. It's running now and is north and slightly east of it's last run at 69 Your 100% correct. I like everyone else have the old sterotypes about the Nam, but it face slapped alot of folks on couple occasions last winter. Ive learn to pay attn to it for various reasons. Doesnt mean you write in stone what its saying but its not the dead hoarse it use to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eyes starting to get centered again, plus the lowering pressures, she may be about to strengthen and make a run at that 900 MB mark some models were showing! JB says it gets there by Friday-Saturday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 911 mb, the lowest on Solaks post! Incredible! Thanks for posting! Must not have made it into the Hur Update... 4:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6 Location: 18.7°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 920 mb Max sustained: 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12Z Euro destroys SAV, scary situation developing there, State of Emergency declared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NAM went slightly, slightly east but more North, faster this run. Now we wait on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Here are 6 examples of tropical systems in the historical record tracking along or just off Florida's east coast, with strength evolution shown from Florida to GA/Carolinas 3 of the 6 weakened 2 of the 6 maintained its category strength 1 of the 6 strengthened Hurricane (1885) - strengthened from Tropical Storm to CAT2 \ Hurricane Cleo (1964) - weakened from CAT2 to Tropical Storm Hurricane David (1979) - strengthened from CAT1 to CAT2, then weakened to CAT1 - first hurricane I remember as a kid in Charlotte Hurricane Dennis (1981) - maintained tropical storm status Hurricane Irene (1999) - maintained CAT1 strength Hurricane Matthew - weakened from CAT4 to CAT1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Solak said: Must not have made it into the Hur Update... 4:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6 Location: 18.7°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 920 mb Max sustained: 185 mph I imagine they avg them all, but still a lot were in the mid teens! It's looking really good now, I think it hits sub 910 by next advisory !! ( 8pm)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, senc30 said: NAM went slightly, slightly east but more North, faster this run. Now we wait on the GFS. It must be on crack or it's on to something. 18z NAM at hour 84 (heading almost due north): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I imagine they avg them all, but still a lot were in the mid teens! It's looking really good now, I think it hits sub 910 by next advisory !! ( 8pm)? TWC update has 914 MB right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This was Barbuda last night when Irma was at 185 sustained/gust well over 200. To think Hurricane Jose will be knocking on their doorstep next week has to be nauseating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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