Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 With winds as we've seen so far, how would the tall buildings in Miami hold up? I'm sure they're built to modern building codes, but I'd expect them to be gutted to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The motion the Euro run has between 48 and 72 hrs is the crucial part of the run, thats pretty WNW, when the models run with that motion the storm hits further west...when the track stays more NW it gets further up the coast, when the cane gets there and how it tracks during that period should clear up a lot with regards to who on the SE coast gets a hit....thats still 2 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:32 PM, jburns said: Agreed but we are in some unusual territory here. It's not often a hurricane can hit a major city, stay over land for a few hours, take a 50 mph hit in wind velocity and still come back offshore as a major. Pretty amazing when you think about it. Expand I agree. I'm not sure it will be that strong when it reemerges off the FL coast, though. I know that's what the model is showing, but my guess would be that it's weaker than that and will be in a state of weakening. It will take some time to stabilize and then restrengthen. I don't know how many times I've seen out in model-land a cane move over land and then rapidly strengthen as soon as it hits water, only to reemerge in real life weaker and remain in a discombobulated state for quite a bit longer than the models are showing. This one may be different. I mean, we are dealing with a rare storm here, and upper level winds will be favorable, along with high octane SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm in the boat right now where seeing these runs coming in back and forth makes me weary what to expect. For all we know this Sc/Ga talk is wrong and it comes in the Nc coast and plows us. Wow. How many more days of this? Anyone else know what to make of the runs seeming all over the place. I too went through Fran. I was a sophomore in high school at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Another consideration for when the storm hits waters off the east coast of Florida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:38 PM, Cold Rain said: I agree. I'm not sure it will be that strong when it reemerges off the FL coast, though. I know that's what the model is showing, but my guess would be that it's weaker than that and will be in a state of weakening. It will take some time to stabilize and then restrengthen. I don't know how many times I've seen out in model-land a cane move over land and then rapidly strengthen as soon as it hits water, only to reemerge in real life weaker and remain in a discombobulated state for quite a bit longer than the models are showing. This one may be different. I mean, we are dealing with a rare storm here, and upper level winds will be favorable, along with high octane SSTs. Expand agree but this thing is STILL 185mph and I think it makes a run at 200 in the straits as it approaches fl. even if it weakens 50-60mph we are looking at a high end cat 4 still as it comes offshore. very worrying for the coast and us inland for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Serious damage to downtown miami would occur wilma blew out a lot of glass windows. The construction cranes there are only certified to cat 4 145mph winds. So my guess it would not be pretty downtown miami has not been hit by a major cane since the 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro goes right up Savana river towards Anderson and ends up in Bristol TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:33 PM, Queencitywx said: Showing hurricane force gusts up to CLT Expand yep...charlotte might get gusts as high as 85 to 90 according to this run...as well as most of sc. close to hurricane force gusts even as far west as my location (frame before this one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like we are coming to a consensus. Euro, GFS and GFS ensembles, and NAVGEM almost lock step. Savannah, HHI and Charleston it's time to pack your bags and hit 95 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:44 PM, Lookout said: yep...charlotte might get gusts as high as 85 to 90 according to this run...as well as most of sc. close to hurricane force gusts even as far west as my location (frame before this one) Expand That could be very damaging for the mountains also. Even just TS gusts would be enough to bring down trees especially if we are seeing flooding rains from the remnants of Irma. Also to note the interaction with the trough that looks to come in on top of this storm once it moves up this way. A lot of moving pieces, a lot of uncertainty, a lot we just do not know. One thing we do know is this is a Cat 5 hurricane that is a bad mofo and does not look to slow down anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:29 PM, griteater said: Pretty dang good consensus from 12z GFS/UKMET/EURO of track along or just east of FL coast, then up to Savannah to Charleston. Expand Yep I saw the 3 models laid side by side and remarkable consensus. Looking at those Bulging HPS on H5 maps Im in the camp this runs the Florida penisula longer verse OTS or getting back over water before a second landfall. If what we are seeing today is correct in regards to Bermuda HP and the one up over Ohio Valley on the euro op. Course it will change a hair or 2 guranteed next few days and we all know that can and will cause major changes to alot of folks sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Irma could be on par with Hugo for inland regions of the Carolinas. Hugo had 54mph sustained with 87mph gusts in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:51 PM, packfan98 said: Irma could be on par with Hugo for inland regions of the Carolinas. Hugo had 54mph sustained with 87mph gusts in Charlotte. Expand Euro has MBY with a gust of 84 mph @ hour 138, Chester, SC was the highest with 92mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:49 PM, Met1985 said: That could be very damaging for the mountains also. Even just TS gusts would be enough to bring down trees especially if we are seeing flooding rains from the remnants of Irma. Also to note the interaction with the trough that looks to come in on top of this storm once it moves up this way. A lot of moving pieces, a lot of uncertainty, a lot we just do not know. One thing we do know is this is a Cat 5 hurricane that is a bad mofo and does not look to slow down anytime soon. Expand Not liking this look for the mountains AT ALL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 7:01 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Not liking this look for the mountains AT ALL! Expand I am not either... Most tracks recently put us in a major bullseye for flooding rains and heavy winds. This is a beast and cannot be taken lightly, not even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 7:04 PM, Met1985 said: I am not either... Most tracks recently put us in a major bullseye for flooding rains and heavy winds. Expand Nowhere to displace water up here except into the valleys. Tons of rain + high winds = down trees and bank erosion. A Peeks Creek Disaster 2.0 is in order with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 7:12 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Nowhere to displace water up here except into the valleys. Tons of rain + high winds = down trees and bank erosion. A Peeks Creek Disaster 2.0 is in order with this setup. Expand Yeah this is worst case scenario for sure. We have been pretty wet here recently also. We just had 2 plus inches the past 24 hours then we had rain last week and know maybe 5 plus coming towards the first of next week. This storm will be a bad nightmare for all it affects in my opinion. There will be no sugar coating this thing if it continues to hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I won't post the entire discussion here, but this is a critically important point to make right now (from NWS GSP's disco): AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: I'LL BEGIN THIS DISCUSSION WITH SOME TRIVIA - DID YOU KNOW THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN A 5-DAY TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST IS ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES? FOR REFERENCE, THAT'S ABOUT TWICE THE WIDTH OF THE FL PENINSULA, AND AN ERROR THAT SIZE COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE IMPACTS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN USUAL, AND THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD. THIS ONLY UNDERSCORES THE NEED FOR EVERYONE IN THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA TO STAY ALERT AND PREPARED. It's a great discussion though, and I'd suggest everybody read it. http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro has wind gusts in Charleston, or my part just across the river to the west of downtown, in the low 80s. Surprisingly less than I would have expected. That'll be another fun metric to play around with this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 For those interested, the afternoon forecast discussion is out from GSP. I am also including the Charleston NWS link even though theirs is not out for the afternoon... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm a little surprised how far east these are based off of 12z models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:49 PM, NCSNOW said: Yep I saw the 3 models laid side by side and remarkable consensus. Looking at those Bulging HPS on H5 maps Im in the camp this runs the Florida penisula longer verse OTS or getting back over water before a second landfall. If what we are seeing today is correct in regards to Bermuda HP and the one up over Ohio Valley on the euro op. Course it will change a hair or 2 guranteed next few days and we all know that can and will cause major changes to alot of folks sensible weather. Expand The model agreement for being so far out right now is quite good TBH for it being 5 days out....especially after so much spread on the ensembles. The 18z tropical models are also in line. On 9/6/2017 at 7:04 PM, Met1985 said: I am not either... Most tracks recently put us in a major bullseye for flooding rains and heavy winds. This is a beast and cannot be taken lightly, not even up here. Expand Indeed....areas with any elevation are going to especially prone if such a track pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 How long is Irma over south Florida? It's very swampy down there and canes don't weaken as much crossing there as they do going on land in other areas. Andrew only weakened to 135mph crossing the entire peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 7:19 PM, packfan98 said: I'm a little surprised how far east these are based off of 12z models... Expand They are really not east to be honest. In fact, the two blue lines furthest to the east were actually sending it to the obx last run. So a tick West in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Georgia -- State of Emergency This emergency declaration includes Bryan, Camden, Chatham, Glynn, Liberty and McIntosh Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12Z Ensemble suites, both Euro and GFS, are back to 50/50 west and east Florida. We are back to square one. I suspect the late model tracks will shift west in line with the global models. Irma is hugging US Territories closer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 7:31 PM, nrgjeff said: 12Z Ensemble suites, both Euro and GFS, are back to 50/50 west and east Florida. We are back to square one. Expand Yep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 They are all pretty close really, but 50 miles on either side of where it turns makes a huge difference for both south Florida and locations up the coast. The model tracks are clustered more narrow than the NHC cone at this point by the look of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Nam still convinced it turns early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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