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Hurricane Irma

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep...good bit further west and more concentrated around the gfs track. 

 

edit, oops i see downeast already showed it. 

 

 

 

 

 

Those are not the current one....just showing how much different they are run to run and why its tough to take any run at face value in this range...like I said about the only thing that looks certain is a major cane hitting between Miami and Hatteras. Thinking this thing is more likely to hit Savannah than Wilmington or Charleston is a bad move for anyone to do at this point in the process. 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

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9 minutes ago, ceknc said:

I was a student at NC State during Fran.  Fifth floor of Metcalf was my safe harbor, even as trees fell around us and transformers kept exploding.  Brad P this morning gave good advice - hide from wind, but flee from floods.  A hotel in Raleigh or Charlotte would be infinitely better than remaining at the coast.  

I would not suggest a high rise in either location.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
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7 minutes ago, ceknc said:

I was a student at NC State during Fran.  Fifth floor of Metcalf was my safe harbor, even as trees fell around us and transformers kept exploding.  Brad P this morning gave good advice - hide from wind, but flee from floods.  A hotel in Raleigh or Charlotte would be infinitely better than remaining at the coast.  

Like CR said, welcome!  And how funny....I lived in Metcalf (5th floor too!) in 1986.  Small world!

Couldn't agree more that the chances of dealing with some extended high water in Raleigh / Charlotte / Atlanta are far better than riding this storm out on the coast of SC.  I wouldn't put my family through that. 

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Lookout

Lookout

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19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

 

the problem is the GEFS swing wildly every run so there is no real faith in them, though they are better than that fuster cluck that is the EPS whose ensemble spread is crazy bad...my point is all this really proves is the models have a poor handle on the storm and how its gonna play out, and trying to buy into any one solution or when the GEFS are all over the place. I guarantee we see more GFS runs into eastern NC and some into Miami and everywhere in between in the next 48 hrs.....same goes for the other models...

GEFS from 18Z last night...Florida 

59b033587eb08_18z5.thumb.png.ff4248081ac0c6cca76904b94cac11fa.png

 

GEFS 6Z from this morning....NC 

59b03363ad204_06z6.thumb.png.a2019541d0e20deecb26b4e3134d790e.png

 

Gonna guess the 12Z are back west....so how reliable do you reckon the GFS is run to run in this range right now? 

That's probably the most concentrated and best agreement they have had with each other and the operational run to date though. We'll see what the euro/eps shows but if it comes in similar, the agreement would be pretty good for being 5 days out. But as you said, it's easy to forget this is a 5 day forecast so that alone is enough to recognize that possible significant changes are likely....especially considering we are talking about a  complex interaction between irma, the exiting trough, war, the  incoming upper low/sw   and whatever land interactions it has. 

Might be worth noting that the members that are well off to the east are already too far north..some by quite a bit really.  

btw...about the images. I know when i posted them they were updated on my end..but for some reason sometimes it acts screwy..even after clearing the cache. 

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

That's probably the most concentrated and best agreement they have had with each other and the operational run to date though. We'll see what the euro/eps shows but if it comes in similar, the agreement would be pretty good for being 5 days out. But as you said, it's easy to forget this is a 5 day forecast so that alone is enough to recognize that possible significant changes are likely....especially considering we are talking about a  complex interaction between irma, the exiting trough, war, the  incoming upper low/sw   and whatever land interactions it has. 

Might be worth noting that the members that are well off to the east are already too far north....some by quite a bit really.  

Unfortunately I have a feeling that it'll start making the rounds with the general public around 5:00 this afternoon, despite the Met on TV telling them that the cone of uncertainty is still large this far out. All people will see is 'that's the ballgame' and tomorrow the trouble starts from Central Florida northward.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

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10 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

I was speaking in terms of evacuating too early and possibly to a place that you might not want to be due to flooding or other hazards vs. waiting until things are a bit more apparent and going where safety is much more probable. Not a hypothetical go or no-go situation.

Understood.  And not trying to be confrontational with this at all because it is a decision that rarely is applicable in 100% of circumstances.  That said, I think anyone in Charleston and points south need to go now (or by tomorrow mid-day) to ensure they 1) can get out, and 2) have a place to evacuate to.  As others have mentioned, evacuating Charleston up I-26 takes days to complete.  They could be seeing TS force conditions by 8pm Sat according to the latest NHC guidance.  That's only 3.5 - 4 days.  It's time to go.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

East trends seem to have halted! Atleast Fl can take all the damaging winds, before coming up to Carolinas 

These are not trends though really the runs go back and forth... they have had the same general idea of sharp turn then somewhere up the SE coast for days now...the changes run to run are all over the place.....

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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A hit to MIA and then being over land for a few hours would greatly disrupt the circulation.  Obviously, that goes without saying, but that would be good news for areas farther north.  In my experience, once disrupted, these things take a good deal of time getting back together...at least in time to regain Major status.

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Steven_1974

Steven_1974

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44 minutes ago, ceknc said:

I was a student at NC State during Fran.  Fifth floor of Metcalf was my safe harbor, even as trees fell around us and transformers kept exploding.  Brad P this morning gave good advice - hide from wind, but flee from floods.  A hotel in Raleigh or Charlotte would be infinitely better than remaining at the coast.  

I was as well. 6th floor in University Towers. Remember people running around outside in the 100 mph winds until transformers exploded and they scattered like ants. I would not like to go through that in my current house. Too many pine trees around. I think I'd seek shelter in a hotel or something myself.

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jburns

jburns

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

A hit to MIA and then being over land for a few hours would greatly disrupt the circulation.  Obviously, that goes without saying, but that would be good news for areas farther north.  In my experience, once disrupted, these things take a good deal of time getting back together...at least in time to regain Major status.

Agreed but we are in some unusual territory here.  It's not often a hurricane can hit a major city, stay over land for a few hours, take a 50 mph hit in wind velocity and still come back offshore as a major. Pretty amazing when you think about it.

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Steven_1974

Steven_1974

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

A hit to MIA and then being over land for a few hours would greatly disrupt the circulation.  Obviously, that goes without saying, but that would be good news for areas farther north.  In my experience, once disrupted, these things take a good deal of time getting back together...at least in time to regain Major status.

That would be our only potential saving grace further north if the track went like they were thinking. Unfortunately for the folks in Florida though. Wish there was a viable solution right now that wouldn't end up with a large loss of property and potentially life. Doesn't seem like much hope in getting kicked out to sea right now.

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