LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: If nothing else, I think we can say the eastward trend has stopped (for now). Definitely south/west though. Looking EURO-ish. all hail King Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I hadnt looked at the euro in depth but it's eerie how this thing wants to hit at almost the same time that Hugo hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Moving north now at 90...it's SW of last run, but not as much now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ouch Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 And the 12Z GfS moves back west with what could be a landfall on Eastern Florida at 102. The fun continues with these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 minor shifts early on but overall pretty similar to the euro and 00z and 06z gfs runs. skirts miami and headed due north and is absolutely bombing out/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Miami is only 25 miles from coast to Glades any hiccup or sneeze and even this brush will be nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: minor shifts early on but overall pretty similar to the euro and 00z and 06z gfs runs. skirts miami and headed due north and is absolutely bombing out/ they are relatively minor from run to run but they add up. This is the 3rd run in a row of a noticeable west shift...compared to 3 runs ago, the gfs has trended about a hundred miles west. And any westward trend at all is huge for florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ridge building in. This thing is gonna go west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just a little west at 114 still, just off of central FL coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just far enough into the water to destroy Georgia and the majority of the SC coast when the inevitable landfall happens. edit: Savannah area around 126. Tropical Tidbits is having trouble it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Into SAV or very close at 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like it landfalls at the GA/SC line at 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Coming right into Savannah area at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Man oh man, talk about a pretty much worst case scenario. The good news is we're at a range where the average track error is a couple of hundred miles. The bad news is the models seem to be steadily converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sgrego72 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wow this could be a hurricane of disastrous proportions. South Florida waterfront damage MIA-Daytona then savannah has no been hit in forever and the inland into CLT. What an unreal mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS tracks it from Savannah to Clemson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Sgrego72 said: Wow this could be a hurricane of disastrous proportions. South Florida waterfront damage MIA-Daytona then savannah has no been hit in forever and the inland into CLT. What an unreal mess. It's been since 1898 i think since ga has had a major hurricane make landfall. Obviously some high wind gust potential well inland into ga... especially sc...as well as the higher elevations of the mountains. with a track up the savannah river valley. Would be interesting to see if such a track up the river like that could cause some enhanced winds in the 85 corridor as the wind is funneled between the low and the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 About how far out would the intensity become more known (in general, not taking this run as gospel)? Basically once it makes that northward turn and whatever potential Florida interaction there may be becomes more settled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Going to be Savannah/Hilton Head again....next run might be SC/NC border, until Irma is up in the Bahamas we will probably see this kind of jumping around every single run, and it wont change till at least Friday probably...hell even when its in the Bahamas we wont know when Irma will turn until she does. Even if the models all have her turning north 75 miles east of Miami it means nothing until she actually turns there lol. basically this will be one of those nowcasting type canes where wobbles and short term trends in the Bahamas mean the difference between smashing Miami or hitting Wilmington.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Yeah tropical tidbits is getting flooded with hits and I am getting a 502 Bad gateway error. Needless to say I already stocked up on necessities to beat the impending rush to come for these items. No major hits in 12 years followed by Harvey and potentially Irma back to back. Appears to me that a general consensus is slowly coming together but the nightmare is just fine tuning it. 50 miles either way means everything to specific locations. A trip across Florida and the wind impacts are lessened further north in GA and SC. Stays offshore then GA/SC get hammered full on. What a freaking nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like the 12z UKMet is a little east. Looks like it is barely off the central FL coast at 120 on the crude maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS tracks it from Savannah to Clemson Like Hugo, but worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 and there you go, further west and now a GA landfall. Obviously not the final solution but jesus that's about as bad as it can get from coastal GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Radar image from PR. If interested, follow the link. That western eye wall means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Someone shared this link earlier. I believe this map is based off of the UKMET. Looks slightly W of the GFS (?). http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Charleston Southern already closing campus as of Thursday night. Football game Sat at SC State PPD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, sctvman said: Charleston Southern already closing campus as of Thursday night. Football game Sat at SC State PPD. Probably a good idea! Better safe than sorry! If it hits SC at landfall , will be strongest to hit since Hugo, could be stronger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The satellite structure for Irma hasn't been quite as symmetrical today...a little westerly shear going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Canadian landfalls in NC this go-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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