FallsLake Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Sometimes it's good to look at history. The below image is number of years between major hurricane hits. And (consequently) it also shows where hurricanes tend to hit. Every hurricane is different; but just looking at the map, you would think a hit from mid SC coast up to NC is a good bet (at this time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Last 2 obs from the Barbuda station before it stopped working those are in KNOTS lol....so that is a confirmed 155 mph wind gust....with sustained winds of around 120 mph. No telling if it had higher than that...the island looks low and I am sure the damage there is total very few structures will survive that kind of wind. 9 06 2:00 am N 94.0 135.0 - - - - 27.40 -2.07 75.7 82.6 - - - - 9 06 1:54 am NW 103.0 134.0 - - - - 27.52 - 75.7 82.6 - - - - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9 This station will be the next one to watch though it looks to be taking a nice NW jog and may spare these islands the full brunt.... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chav3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The footage from St. Maarten is shocking. Otherworldly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Well, looks like the models are trending back east again, and the NHC adjusted their track some. The back and forth is crazy. It would be great if it kept going east and out to sea, but I am afraid it's not going to go east enough and end up hitting NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandi Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 CMC has given me whiplash. Yesterday, it showed landfall in my backyard, today in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pressure 918 currently, up a few MBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The chances it goes east some more is fairly high IMO, the problem is wobbles in a north moving cane off the SE coast changes landfall location by hundreds of miles...to me the best probability based on just typical storms that approach at that angle is more east so anywhere from Charleston to Cape Lookout being the likely landfall area with the highest chance being Myrtle Beach over to the Wilmington...The way this is evolving in the models is pretty typical of a storm that hits up here....still hoping this finds a way to stay east of all of us but that blocking high in the models pretty much guarantees a landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Pocosin said: What is RAH? I am in Central NC and want as much info I can get, although I have to agree I think this particular one is a mistake. I have a feeling we may have a bulls-eye on us at least for a while. As someone pointed out RAH is the NWS office in Raleigh, NC and that information they quoted came from their Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). Here is a link to their website. http://www.weather.gov/rah/ From there just put your cursor on forecasts. It will drop down a sub menu and then click on Forecasters Discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csager Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I work for NOAA/CO-OPS/FOD and we maintain all these stations. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.shtml?region=Virgin Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Further east. Not good for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Watch the evolution of the cut off 500mb low sinking to the Gulf Coast. The flow around it nudges Irma North and then pulls her inland in the Carolinas. It is interesting this showed up in the models Friday, went away, and is now back. Will it change again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Further east. Not good for NC. I put the threat like this FL/SC/GA/NC in that order based on all the data out right now. If I were to bet I'd say we have a Cat 3 moving up the eastern FL coast headed right to the GA/SC border leaving SC very vulnerable, more so than GA but also GA more vulnerable than anywhere in NC. But if this thing takes more of a path like just south of SAV then coastal GA is in a world of trouble with surge and flooding, more than the winds which will still likely be ferocious. I see southern NC in a much more precarious position than yesterday but still not to the level of concern I have for states farther south on the coast. JMO, everyone has one and this is mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Further east. Not good for NC. Unfortunately, not just NC. That ain't good for the majority of the SE coast Especially Miami, GA coast. Sheesh--this takes dead aim at SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Unfortunately, not just NC. That ain't good for the majority of the SE coast Especially Miami, GA coast. Sheesh--this takes dead aim at SC. Yep, it makes the situation in GA and SC much worse than in previous more westward tracks. There's no telling how strong this could still be if it doesn't have any major interaction with land until the coastline in GA or the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Meh the trend is good for FL and Ga with the trough hanging back and the ULL over the lower Miss Valley......a few more east shifts and FL might get away with just Cat 1 winds along the immediate beaches.... The NAM is further east in the Bahamas than the other globals and it was the first to hint at a east correction as it came into range over the SE Bahamas by lagging the trough... This is the 12Z NAM its hanging the trough back more and has that cutoff over the lower Miss Valley, this will make her go north and stay that way until the trough lifts and the high slides over from the GL to NE, this setup is for a Charleston to Lookout landfall and would spare FL and GA the brunt of the storm....this is very much a setup similar to when Hugo or Fran hit so if this trend continues expect to see a shift to a landfall probably central SC to SE NC...moving NNW at landfall. The other globals have slowly been trending towards this setup....the storm is moving due north by this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 If I were living in Charleston right now, I'd be extremely anxious and worried right now. I just feel like when it's all said and done, that will be the target zone. Even if it landfall slightly southwest, they're still going to get hit with the NE eyewall. I know quite a few of the members on here live in or around Charleston. I think Columbia is under the gun too...obviously not as much as Charleston, but I can still see pretty fierce winds and lots of flooding as the eye moves through the state after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looking at Puerto Rico radar, looks like the eye is going to skim or totally miss the N part of the island! Don't think it makes a direct landfall, IMO movement looks WNW at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Not sure which island this is from, but it's live stream of Irma hitting there. Earlier there were people rescuing others from a bus that had been turned over on its side. That looks more like a tornado hitting than a hurricane. Notice the lack of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Not sure which island this is from, but it's live stream of Irma hitting there. Earlier there were people rescuing others from a bus that had been turned over on its side. This is a fake.....I'm pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Not sure which island this is from, but it's live stream of Irma hitting there. Earlier there were people rescuing others from a bus that had been turned over on its side. The bus was NOT from Irma. This stream is a hoax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 hours ago, StormyClearweather said: I think if you look at what the ensembles are doing, you'll see it's not necessarily a small chance. If nothing else, the chance of it floating out to sea has definitely gone up since yesterday. As someone mentioned above, everything keeps shifting a little east with each run (the 6Z made a minor westward shift, but that's likely just noise). Having said that, we're not going to know for sure for several more days. I always go with a small chance so I don't get my hopes up that it goes out to see and it doesn't. I've seen this dog and pony how before with models. Usually a store makes landfall further north, in this case, I'm thinking SC/NC line, but if it keeps trending, OTS will work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: If I were living in Charleston right now, I'd be extremely anxious and worried right now. I just feel like when it's all said and done, that will be the target zone. Even if it landfall slightly southwest, they're still going to get hit with the NE eyewall. I know quite a few of the members on here live in or around Charleston. I think Columbia is under the gun too...obviously not as much as Charleston, but I can still see pretty fierce winds and lots of flooding as the eyes moves through the state after landfall. Just a bit, with something this size I'd be nervous with basically anything on this side of the NC border. We know people in Aiken, Charlotte and Raleigh (who are hopefully ok with us + cat and dog), and it'll be a while before we would even be able to figure out where to go since things are still so much up in the air. edited: video was debunked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Out to 60 and the 12Z is slightly South of the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earendil Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Further east. Not good for NC. If this line holds relatively close, how much of an impact will this have in Orlando? I was headed up there this weekend but may need to rethink my plans if they might lose power. I'm not worried about wind and rain, mostly about power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS is a good bit southwest this run at 72...just off Cuba coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, senc30 said: I always go with a small chance so I don't get my hopes up that it goes out to see and it doesn't. I've seen this dog and pony how before with models. Usually a store makes landfall further north, in this case, I'm thinking SC/NC line, but if it keeps trending, OTS will work for me. Wise to not get your hopes up. GFS is a bit further west and south, but tough to tell if that's just noise. Really slows down around 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Sorry, seems that video was a hoax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Noticably south at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Up through hour 78, the 12z GFS has a very similar path as the 0z ECMWF last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS is a good bit southwest this run at 72...just off Cuba coast If nothing else, I think we can say the eastward trend has stopped (for now). Definitely south/west though. Looking EURO-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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