downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 So I wonder when the NHC will give these runs some cred....there is a world of difference between the Euro and GFS now and honestly only one is keeping the pressure even remotely close to reality. I suspect the GFS will float around a bit up and down the SE Coast for a few more days, hell we will be watching every wobble as it comes up the coast since those wobbles can mean the difference between Charleston and Wilmington. Gonna be hell on the NHC if the Euro sticks to the Cuba track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 luckily 132hrs out from a carolina landfall, plenty of time to trend east or west from here. at this point we need to hope for it to run up through florida.I mean, I'd rather ots than to make Florida the sacrificial lamb, but hey that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Hour 150 973MB centered over my hometown. It's Hugo but worse. The Hugo comparison is starting to be mentioned more and more in the past few days. (forget the track) It's been 28 years. And the scary thing is, this one might have more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So it does seem like this has been the most modeled solution, yes? Just north of Cuba, turns N on or near the east coast of FL and then landfall in GA/SC as it's turning back NW. I'm not suggesting toss the Euro or anything but taking that into account along with the general pattern and climo it does seem to be perhaps the most plausible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Well the CMC just went from hitting the Florida panhandle after going south of Florida into the GOM to a almost gets Miami and then straight NE off the east coast missing everyone unless it clips CAPE COD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So to recap: 138 landfall at Edisto as a borderline 4. 144 just east of CAE as a Cat 1/low cat 2. 150 over AKH as a borderline Cat 1 156 decaying over SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So I wonder when the NHC will give these runs some cred....there is a world of difference between the Euro and GFS now and honestly only one is keeping the pressure even remotely close to reality. I suspect the GFS will float around a bit up and down the SE Coast for a few more days, hell we will be watching every wobble as it comes up the coast since those wobbles can mean the difference between Charleston and Wilmington. Gonna be hell on the NHC if the Euro sticks to the Cuba track.... Need GEFS to tick east of Miami to believe it. UK ticked east a little, need better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 If you look at the overnight runs from Saturday night compared to the 0z, crazy how it's trending back to that Carolina solution for GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This run is a colossal disaster for much of the SC low country just factoring in surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: This run is a colossal disaster for much of the SC low country just factoring in surge. Imagine the surge with a storm that big, with pressures probably in the 920-940 range, that has been that strong for that long.....where ever it comes in at will see probably record surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, FatherNature said: If you look at the overnight runs from Saturday night compared to the 0z, crazy how it's trending back to that Carolina solution for GFS At this rate, with this storm you'll wake up tomorrow and everything will be heading to the Gulf. Nothing has been easy to track with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Don't look now, but here comes Jose diving towards the Bahamas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ukie was a tad north of the 12Z instead of crossing Cuba then turning up into south Florida it skirts the north coast of Cuba then turned up and goes right up the middle of Florida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 BARA9 weather station air pressure 927 millibars and falling. Station located in Barbuda on the Southwest side of Irma's eyewall. Winds gusting to 155mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, WarmNose said: BARA9 weather station air pressure 920 millibars and falling. Station located in Barbuda on the Southwest side of Irma's eyewall. Winds gusts stopped reading at 155mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pressure initialization of the Euro has no impact on the path the storm takes on the Euro. This is explained multiple times in the main ex thread. Using that as a reason to discount the Euro is a mistake not based on facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 00Z Euro well north of the 12Z at 96. Irma located between Cuba and the SW Bahamas (12Z had it inland over Cuba) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Big time shift at 120. Euro has Irma east of Melborne/Port C. moving N or NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 All that Euro hate in this thread and now it looks more like an Eastern FL hit while working Irma up into GA/SC after her tango with FL. Apparently the GFS and EURO took steps towards each other at 0z. And again the pressure difference at initialization has no impact on the path the model projects. This is definitely not your typical clean recurring CV storm that wrecks the eastern tip of NC like so many storms of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 144 trucking north toward the SC coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Landfall around 150 between HHI-Edisto Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro and GFS both bring the center thru NC into Gaston County. FWIW, GEFS in agreement with GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Chances of an OTS solution are still slim but have gone up IMO. We all need to cheer for the Canadian. If we can keep this East trend up maybe we can luck out with just a sideswipe in SE Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Woke up this morning to see a tweet from RaleighWX saying: "00z major global models ensemble members,with the strike probability from the ECMWF/CMC/GFS families to the right #Irma Shift east overnight" and saw the NHC made a major change to their cone. So shift east from both models I'm seeing. Mean landfalls mid SC coast (putting imo NC back in the realm) after staying offshore Florida possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 hours ago, lj0109 said: Landfall around 150 between HHI-Edisto Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro folds. 6z gfs continues the ga/sc landfall. Euro ensembles shifted northeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It looks like the NAM would've potentially missed FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Euro folds. 6z gfs continues the ga/sc landfall. Euro ensembles shifted northeast as well. Yeah. Puts the possibilities between Ga and Nc with the mean around Charleston. So far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6z NAM at hour 84 is blasting through the Bahamas. NE of 6z GFS at the same hour. As someone else said in the main thread, the NAM was the first to see the eastern solution yesterday (...as it got into range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6z GEFS mean has shifted east again. Looks to hit around Wilmington! Maybe there is still room for it to escape out to sea??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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