timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 From hour 60 to 66 it shows a 14 mb drop so an erc could be why it shows the brief weakening Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Still south at 78. Question is, when does it turn and how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks to be headed west at hour 90 back to a FL landfall it looks likeSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 90 hrs probably 50 miles SW of 18Z this is when the 18Z started its turn but this run should put Miami back in the mix....unless it turns next frame this will end up right off Miami.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Spoke to soon at hour 96 the turn startsSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like the turn To the NW begins at 96Hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Turning North at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 very similar to 06z and 12z. 18z was a clear eat outlier and this run is coming back into the concensus. southern sc/ga landfall coming up if i had to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Turning at 96 might miss Fl after all....gonna be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Almost due north at 108 east of MIA/FLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Nope gonna miss Florida by 50 miles.....headed due north at 108....only off the 18Z by maybe 20 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pretty sure it misses FL at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Would still be a nasty hit for the SE coast of Florida easily hurricane conditions there, maybe only Cat 1-2 but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Nope gonna miss Florida by 50 miles.....headed due north at 108....only off the 18Z by maybe 20 miles or so.Yep and it's deepening at hour 160Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Misses FL but it's way more than 20 miles west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 pretty different at 120 slower and more west probably looking like Savannah to Charleston somewhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Off Cape Canaveral at 120. Slightly west of north heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Misses FL but a trending West, right? Not looking at model currently but reading. Since we are a good 3-4 days out from this storm I can see both the Euro and GFS meeting in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Still moving northward at 126. Looks about 75-100 miles WSW of the position at the same time frame in the previous 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 138 nearing landfall at Edisto Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 And landfall 140 south of charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Right into or maybe just east of Charleston....then over Columbia.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 If the Euro and GFS meet in the middle this will run up the spine of Florida, am prepared for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 946 between Sumter and Columbia at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Right into or maybe just east of Charleston.... Looks like Edisto, about 40 miles SW as the crow flies. Worst case scenario for surge into the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That's a pretty bad run for the Carolinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Looks like Edisto, about 40 miles SW as the crow flies. Worst case scenario for surge into the peninsula. Yep. This run takes it from Edisto Beach to Sumter then slightly NW to Gastonia NC at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, lj0109 said: Yep. This run takes it from Edisto Beach to Sumter then slightly NW to Gastonia NC at 150 973mb right over MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hour 150 973MB centered over my hometown. It's Hugo but worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 luckily 132hrs out from a carolina landfall, plenty of time to trend east or west from here. at this point we need to hope for it to run up through florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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