timnc910 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like the east shift has support per 0zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Damn. Did you mean to post that one? Or this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Barbuda is about to get a direct hit it looks like.... http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Damn. Damn, there goes my rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Barbuda is about to get a direct hit it looks like.... http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Looks like it will miss PR at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Damn, there goes my rain! How many times has the track shifted east to west and then back. I'm still worried about that Hugo track, where I'm out of power for ~ 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'd caution about the early hurricane models. It seems like they run in the rears. A lot based off previous run data. Which would make sense with GFS the east outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Damn, there goes my rain! as blue ridge just mentioned, a lot of that further east tracks are because the 18z gfs was so far east. And Ones like the TABS can be tossed in the trash immediately regardless. Could be wrong but i suspect the 0z runs will continue the general florida hit and the 18zgfs is just an odd run..it clearly is an outlier vs the rest of the guidance. Of course, now that i've said that... watch the rest of them all shift east and make me look stupid for not waiting a few hours to see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 If you don't already have recon pulled up the AF plane is making a NE eyewall pass right now. edit: Didn't find anything too big (relatively speaking), 158kt FL and 137kt SFMR unflagged was the top at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Barbuda is about to get a direct hit it looks like.... http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles yeah the radar and satellite is down right scary as ****. I sure hope those folks have somewhere that is built like fort knox to go to...unfortunately that is probably what it's going to take. It's hard to comprehend any island taking a direct hit from a near 200mph monster like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Lookout said: as blue ridge just mentioned, a lot of that further east tracks are because the 18z gfs was so far east. And Ones like the TABS can be tossed in the trash immediately regardless. Could be wrong but i suspect the 0z runs will continue the general florida hit and the 18zgfs is just an odd run..it clearly is an outlier vs the rest of the guidance. Of course, now that i've said that... watch the rest of them all shift east and make me look stupid for not waiting a few hours to see lol The GEFS and EPS means are on top of each other through day 5. Has it at tip of sFL....hard to beat that. You would think by 12z or 0z tomorrow we should know if it's going to track over Cuba or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11PM NHC Update keeps Irma at 185 MPH. Regarding the track, the NHC says..."Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS () looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Irma has taken a wobble north and looks to be in line for a direct hit on Barbuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NAM is gonna miss Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Irma has taken a wobble north and looks to be in line for a direct hit on Barbuda If by a long shot anyone sees pics on social media after Irma clears what's left of Barbuda please share. Hopefully some weather nerd like us will stick his head out the door while the eye is passing over and snap some pics. Sure it will be first and foremost thing on his mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The gfs/nam kinda gave away the secret today/tonight for this to curve north. It's the same as a winter time situation. If that departing trough ends up cutting off a low over New England, this will force energy to dive into the Miss' valley and form a weak cutoff low. This is the same setup we would get in the winter time if we wanted a snowstorm. If this happens, it will force Irma to fujiwhara around the upper low and curve back into the southeast Hugo Style. I'm assuming the EURO is much more transient with the departing trough over the NE, without having time to examine it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Over/Under 80 minutes until the BARA9 Weatherstation goes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, griteater said: 11PM NHC Update keeps Irma at 185 MPH. Regarding the track, the NHC says..."Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS () looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution." Right so lets go with the model that never takes Irma lower than 958 mb its entire run instead cause ya know its got such a great handle on it...... Hky made a excellent observation that all the east of Florida ensemble members that the Euro has are the ones with storm pressures close to what it actually is...hard to see the Euro staying so far west if it actually initializes the storm in the 920-930 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Right so lets go with the model that never takes Irma lower than 958 mb its entire run instead cause ya know its got such a great handle on it...... Hky made a excellent observation that all the east of Florida ensemble members that the Euro has are the ones with storm pressures close to what it actually is...hard to see the Euro staying so far west if it actually initializes the storm in the 920-930 range. I guess the NHC needs to see the gfs continue to trend tomorrow before they adjust. Idk. I have a feeling we shouldn't discredit the gfs so quickly. But I know nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Well it's time for the "normaly reliable" to run. Picking straws cause a normal 50 mile expected deviation 5 + days out is gonna have huge implications. Be morning time before I can see what really barks the loudest and that's the ens from gfs,ukmet and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wxsynopsis on FB: ALERT: G-4 recon data has been injected into the 00z model suite, NOAA NHC says track will likely be adjusted at 5am advisory to reflect the data and the WNW track that has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 00z GFS rolling in. I'm not staying up to watch, but I suspect it'll be west of 18z, but still on the eastern side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS is running. Will be interesting to see if she decides to follow her 18Z run and change the path from the NHC in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS weakens Irma to a 943 in 6 hours? Do we toss? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS on track of 18Z so far, the pressure bump might it predicting a ERC ( can the models even do that lol) ....it starts to fall again by hr 36 back down to 933.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Through 48 00Z is basically the same as the 18Z in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Yeah maybe a touch more west but its a matter of 10-20 miles and just noise overall so far it is looking like 18Z almost plot for plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Touch south at 60 compared to the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Bigger shift SW at 60 maybe 50-60 miles....so probably gonna be Charleston this time around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Still south though 66 compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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