DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS has me on edge. I am usually excited, but excited for "most powerful storm in the Atlantic history"? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: GFS has me on edge. I am usually excited, but excited for "most powerful storm in the Atlantic history"? No. 1026 high right over NY its not gonna go east I bet, Charleston to Lookout landfall inbound probably right over SC/NC border moving just west of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Hello ILM...@144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Mayday! Mayday! GFS is east. Charleston crush job incoming Hour 144 disagrees. Look closer to the border on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 At 150 looks like landfall on the SC/NC boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, lj0109 said: Hello Goodbye ILM...@144 fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: fixed. Correct. NW jog between 144-150 puts it near FAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 That might slightly inconvenience my vacation at Carolina Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wow I just saw the new GFS run,... hopefully that is just a blip as that is very worrisome living here in Jacksonville, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Weren't we here like 2 or 3 days ago? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Now to see if the gfs is on an island by itself or the other models start to fall in line. . However the 0z Nam (I know its the nam) have similar tracks near bahamas...That would be a 889 mb storm making landfall Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That might slightly inconvenience my vacation at Carolina Beach. Nah, just take your charger, and lots of pics! Your a regular Reed Timmer now! Would be good if it didn't take all of Florida, but bad for NC/SC coast ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Posted this in the main thread, but it's unreadable at the moment. It's interesting to note the perturbations on the Euro ensemble with stronger wind/pressure definitely tend to cluster further north. Makes me wonder if once the initializations start become more in line w/ reality, whether we'll see a jump north towards the GFS. The euro just appears too far south given the trough complex over the Eastern CONUS and also the stubbornness of a UL wanting to pinch off. That's a feature that has been shown for days off and on. This track is far from set in stone, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, AJF0602 said: Wow I just saw the new GFS run,... hopefully that is just a blip as that is very worrisome living here in Jacksonville, NC. My guess is the turn won't be that abrupt to the N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I do not envy anyone that lives along the coast. ILM would be ravaged if this were anywhere remotely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon - 920mb in most recent pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 My parents just moved into a house last fall with access to the intercoastal waterway, between Ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Watching the latest GFS run felt like the equivalent of someone hitting me in the face with a large shovel. The good news is this storm is 6 days away and this run is on the extreme eastern end of guidance. The bad news is (and I think downeastnc alluded to it earlier) it seems like every one of these tropical systems end up trending further up the coast as we get closer to landfall. They almost never trend further south. (the biggest exception I can think of is Hugo, and a big exception he is) It’s going to be a long week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 With a 1020 high over NE and a more realistic 930-940 cane land falling over ILM everyone NE of the center is gonna get effed up. We saw the same thing here in Fran where PGV had one of the highest gust in the storm ( away from the coast). Still this is far out and this will move again though that track is classic and I get nervous whenever the models go back to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Throw something against the wall GFS it will stick eventually lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Posted this in the main thread, but it's unreadable at the moment. It's interesting to note the perturbations on the Euro ensemble with stronger wind/pressure definitely tend to cluster further north. Makes me wonder if once the initializations start become more in line w/ reality, whether we'll see a jump north towards the GFS. The euro just appears too far south given the trough complex over the Eastern CONUS and also the stubbornness of a UL wanting to pinch off. That's a feature that has been shown for days off and on. This track is far from set in stone, obviously. Now this is quality posting folks....that make a lot of sense and explains why the Euro is in Cuba since its 40-50mb off with initialization... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Maybe the east trend continues and it goes OTS, or hits farther north like NJ/NY/New England/Canada? I want to be on the west side of the storm to get cool temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The only model consensus at this point seems to be that somewhere in CONUS between west coast of Florida and Carolinas is going to get a Cat4+ whallop. I think OTS is a pipe dream at this point. That ridge in the Atlantic isn't budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mjwise said: The only model consensus at this point seems to be that somewhere in CONUS between west coast of Florida and Carolinas is going to get a Cat4+ whallop. I think OTS is a pipe dream at this point. That ridge in the Atlantic isn't budging. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, JacobNC said: Maybe the east trend continues and it goes OTS, or hits farther north like NJ/NY/New England/Canada? I want to be on the west side of the storm to get cool temps. Its unlikely to go up the coast much farther due to the high up there....it will hit somewhere between FL and NC....it would be tough for it to get far enough east to skirt the OBX before moving NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: Its unlikely to go up the coast much farther due to the high up there....it will hit somewhere between FL and NC....it would be tough for it to get far enough east to skirt the OBX before moving NW again. Wilmington would handle Cat 4-5 better than OBX/Hampton Roads, which would pretty much be wiped off the map due to storm surge. ILM is at least at 30-40 ft above sea level. But it would not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 30 minutes ago, Disc said: I do not envy anyone that lives along the coast. ILM would be ravaged if this were anywhere remotely accurate. Good grief. Goodbye Bald Head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JacobNC said: Crap. I'm saying the same thing. Drove home today and took time and looked at everything, and realized it's so beautiful here! Cary would never be the same if the 18z is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: I'm saying the same thing. Drove home today and took time and looked at everything, and realized it's so beautiful here! Cary would never be the same if the 18z is right There would be a lot less pine trees, no doubt. However, the amount of yankees would stay the same most likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Throw something against the wall GFS it will stick eventually lol Don't know if any of the extra soundings today influenced this change or not. It will be interesting to see if any subsequent model runs show this same solution or to see if the Euro makes any changes leaning in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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