Hurricane Irma

[Tony Sisk]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Is that an initialization error, or is something else going on?

At 96, Euro has Irma in Cuba. 

I believe it is an error. Don't see it making direct contact (eye/Cuba) I think we should wait on the 4:00 run from the NHC. But the models are not looking good for my state of SC.

[DopplerWx]

lol, gfs up the eastern fl coast and the euro over cuba for 24hrs.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Euro can't even initiate Irma correctly. 40 mb too high yet we expect it to be right 5-7 days out? Those days of "king" are long gone. 

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Euro can't even initiate Irma correctly. 40 mb too high yet we expect it to be right 5-7 days out? Those days of "king" are long gone. 

it has been the best w/ track so far with irma though.

[downeastnc]

12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

lol, gfs up the eastern fl coast and the euro over cuba for 24hrs.

Yeah this sucks....why do we watch these model again lol. Navgem was a bit east of the GFS came in Hilton Head....

On the GFS from Hr 60-114 there is a almost due west motion then a NW motion then a west motion before it finally starts N for good, it kind of stair steps up the SW side of the Bahamas, if that is a more smooth turn it will end up more east, which means it will be further north as well. IF that motion is smooth out and more west then the current Euro runs make more sense....Those turns like this are so poorly modeled usually I hate it for the S FL folks....

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

it has been the best w/ track so far with irma though.

I can't put faith in any model that is off 40mb from the start. The depth of the storm will effect how far south or north this storm gets in the straits of Florida. It's the difference 

[downeastnc]

She is definitely moving WNW now, gonna be close for the NE islands, luckily for them that side is the one with the hurricane winds extending the least....35 miles.

[John1122]

37 minutes ago, kebatusa said:

Seems like I remember Dr. Steve Lyons back when he was on TWC say something along the lines that hurricanes in general or the ones in the area that Irma is now tend to move more north the stronger they are. Can't remember the reason why. Anyone know of this and wonder if the models take that into account.

t

All cyclones tend to move poleward if possible, then NE in the Northern Hemisphere and SE in the Southern.

[ncskywarn]

Beautiful GOES 16 loop storm centered 30 second imagery. 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

[LithiaWx]

You guys still think she hits NC as a strong cane?  The threat looks greatly diminished for you guys and horrible for south FL.

[kebatusa]

30 minutes ago, John1122 said:

All cyclones tend to move poleward if possible, then NE in the Northern Hemisphere and SE in the Southern.

Thanks for the response. Seems BETA DRIFT was the term I was looking for. The larger the system the easier it is to move northward from what I understand.

[ncskywarn]

2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys still think she hits NC as a strong cane?  The threat looks greatly diminished for you guys and horrible for south FL.

Not directly I'd call it more of a long shot unless the models shift about 50-100 East IMO. That being said it's still 7 days out and I wouldn't write anything off at this point.

[mackerel_sky]

I think we will get breezy, showery conditions around me by Tuesday

[StormyClearweather]

Unable to post it here, but looks like the 12z EPS ensemble spread is huge up to 126. Definitely a decent batch east of FL, and a batch (thought slightly smaller?) W of FL and heading into the GOM. Still plenty of uncertainty. 

[mackerel_sky]

Seems like general track is coming together, it's just a matter of when and how sharp the N turn is

[John1122]

ERC and other factors can cause 30-50 mile wobbles and that can have larger long term effects on track. That's why day 5 cones are usually 500 miles wide.  It's good that it's at peak intensity now. It almost assuredly will not be able to maintain this for more than a couple of days but they often expand greatly in size as they slowly weaken. I don't think the GFS depiction of a strengthening storm towards day 5-6 is realistic. That said, this will still likely hit somewhere as a strong cat 3/cat 4 and may have a larger than normal surge like Katrina, which had a cat 5 surge associated with it.

[senc30]

10 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Not directly I'd call it more of a long shot unless the models shift about 50-100 East IMO. That being said it's still 7 days out and I wouldn't write anything off at this point.

I wouldn't. It's moved that much on the GFS since last night. I think the possibly is still high that it hits southern NC/Northern SC as a strong hurricane. Seen this scene to.many times to not believe it will happen this time. 

[lj0109]

Some 18Z Irma Guidance

[downeastnc]

19 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys still think she hits NC as a strong cane?  The threat looks greatly diminished for you guys and horrible for south FL.

Way to soon to call, the models jumped from NC to Florida in 1 cycle, almost every hurricane that landfalls in NC is forecast to hit south of us 3-5 days out....this doesnt mean thats the case here at all, only that hurricanes are hard to forecast and it takes a lot to get a cane moving west again after it goes north, I am skeptical of the hard west motion most models have in the 3 day range that takes the center so far west....it wouldnt take much oof a eastern shift in track for this to get up to SC/NC border...if she doesnt take that hard west turn in the Bahamas then that puts the chances of a Charleston north hit much higher...the trend in the models is great for us as long as they continue. 

I am happy that the models are not running NC landfalls anymore but I am not going to let my guard down till she is over land somewhere other than NC....we should know a lot more by Thurs....at that point it will take some big model errors to miss where ever they have the center at Sun/Mon.

[BullCityWx]

30 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys still think she hits NC as a strong cane?  The threat looks greatly diminished for you guys and horrible for south FL.

Would you say the same about a seven day snow forecast?

[packbacker]

Posted this in the main thread...12z EPS mean matches up well with GEFS mean.  Op is a western outlier in it's ensemble...FWIW.

[LithiaWx]

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Would you say the same about a seven day snow forecast?

No,  this isn't a snowstorm where you have to worry about precip type etc.   

 

The NC centric comments would lead a novice to think you guys were under the same threat as you were a couple of days ago where both globals were showing a storm around SAV - CHS.  

 

Dont confuse dininished threat with no threat, please. 

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

No,  this isn't a snowstorm where you have to worry about precip type etc.   

 

The NC centric comments would lead a novice to think you guys were under the same threat as you were a couple of days ago where both globals were showing a storm around SAV - CHS.  

 

Dont confuse dininished threat with no threat, please. 

Bulk cluster on EPS and GEFS hit SC with strong cane so yeah...NC probably isn't looking at a direct hit but could feel some effects.

[NC_hailstorm]

Right now I'd say the Euro and UKIE are really close at day 5 with the cane over west central Cuba and I'm not looking beyond that point right now.I'm just sticking with the odds and going with the two highest accurate models if you're going by scoring.

[timnc910]

Bulk cluster on EPS and GEFS hit SC with strong cane so yeah...NC probably isn't looking at a direct hit but could feel some effects.

I wouldn't write anything off.. we saw what Matthew did and how the track changed at the last moment... We went from a Florida landfall tracking inland through Florida and the south east to a brush with the east coast of Florida and then riding up to ga/ sc... I have learned my lesson on premature post

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[LithiaWx]

Cuba will shread up Irma if she passes too close.  She looks to pass at least near Cuba which will likely weaken her even if she never makes LF there.  High terrain will just wreck a tropical system for those that don't know.   

 

How disrupted did Irma get?  How are the conditions for redevelopment in that part of the ocean?  How much time does she spend near those mountains?  Lots of questions still out there.  But all of that added up tells me Irma will never be the same again after her approach to Cuba.  Could she still go back cat3 or 4,  sure but there are going to be things working against a monster cane after that dance with Cuba.  JMO,  I'm just a weather nerd  

[Upstate Tiger]

For those interested in the Upstate of SC, NE GA, and Western NC, following is the Long Range forecast discussion released this afternoon from GSP:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: The abbreviated medium range forecast
picks up at 00Z Monday and focuses almost exclusively on potential
impacts from Irma. The TC location reflected in our grids reflects
the points that have been collaborated by the National Hurricane
Center and the Weather Prediction Center. The current track and
thinking do bring Irma`s track very close to our CWA through day 7,
so the forecast reflects some possible impacts. Sky cover increases
Sunday night, and pops increase from southeast to northwest Monday
morning, with much of the area likely seeing rainfall by Monday
night. Tropical rainfall would likely continue through much of
Tuesday as well. It is too early to accurately assess potential
rainfall totals...and there are some factors in our favor versus
not. The storm motion is fast, which could limit the time our area
sees the tropical rainfall. On the other hand...this is a tropical
system, which have historically been able to be quite prolific rain
producers in this area, even as tropical depressions and remnant
lows. The potential for heavy rainfall is there, and we`ll have to
sort out specific totals in the coming days. Current forecasts do
not portray wind as a significant issue, and the winds in the
current forecast are well below tropical storm force. From past
storms, however, we know that saturated soils mean that strong winds
are not necessary to topple a few trees. Tropical cyclone tornadoes
are a potential threat with any tropical system that makes landfall,
but the likelihood of those is too tied to small track details to
make an accurate assessment for our area at this time.

This is going to sound like a broken record, but please stay aware
of the forecast and realize that this is absolutely not set in stone
yet. Any impacts that could be realized would be at least 6 days out
at this point, and there is plenty of time for things to change and
for specific thinking on rainfall totals and tropical threats to be
refined. The track is still incredibly uncertain, and based upon the
intensity and motion of many synoptic features, including the
Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean and a couple of upper troughs
that move through the northern/eastern CONUS. The placement of an
upper low over the southeast next weekend continues to be vital to
the track of Irma...as unpredictable Fujiwhara interaction with that
feature will likely determine details of the final track.

Our best advice at this point is to have a plan and an emergency
preparedness kit in case of storm impacts, stay aware of the
forecast, and only turn to trusted sources of guidance.

[timnc910]

Cuba will shread up Irma if she passes too close.  She looks to pass at least near Cuba which will likely weaken her even if she never makes LF there.  High terrain will just wreck a tropical system for those that don't know.   

 

How disrupted did Irma get?  How are the conditions for redevelopment in that part of the ocean?  How much time does she spend near those mountains?  Lots of questions still out there.  But all of that added up tells me Irma will never be the same again after her approach to Cuba.  Could she still go back cat3 or 4,  sure but there are going to be things working against a monster cane after that dance with Cuba.  JMO,  I'm just a weather nerd  

What do you know that we don't know that she is even going to get close to have any effects at all.. Most models show Cuba having really no effect at all.. Your making it sound like the Strom is just gonna die and fizzle out.. no need to down play and possible dangerous situation for some folks in the u.s

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[Lookout]

1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Euro can't even initiate Irma correctly. 40 mb too high yet we expect it to be right 5-7 days out? Those days of "king" are long gone. 

That's not unusual for the euro or any  global models. They have a hard time resolving such small features.  Although one would not think so, from what i hear from people a lot smarter than myself on this issue is that it doesn't normally effect the track very much. 

1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

You guys still think she hits NC as a strong cane?  The threat looks greatly diminished for you guys and horrible for south FL.

Way too soon to say for sure but a direct hit seems less likely....however due to the large size, if irma goes to sc there no doubt there would some possible significant impacts.  As long as we keep having groups of ensembles of the gfs and euro showing much further east tracks, it's impossible and foolish for anyone to write anywhere off.  The huge differences obviously mean  pretty small changes among one or any of many important features could result in a very different outcome. 

51 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Unable to post it here, but looks like the 12z EPS ensemble spread is huge up to 126. Definitely a decent batch east of FL, and a batch (thought slightly smaller?) W of FL and heading into the GOM. Still plenty of uncertainty. 

The mean is not radically different but the spread among the individual members  is  pretty absurd. 

48 minutes ago, John1122 said:

ERC and other factors can cause 30-50 mile wobbles and that can have larger long term effects on track. That's why day 5 cones are usually 500 miles wide.  It's good that it's at peak intensity now. It almost assuredly will not be able to maintain this for more than a couple of days but they often expand greatly in size as they slowly weaken. I don't think the GFS depiction of a strengthening storm towards day 5-6 is realistic. That said, this will still likely hit somewhere as a strong cat 3/cat 4 and may have a larger than normal surge like Katrina, which had a cat 5 surge associated with it.

One would think so because it's not easy for a storm to maintain cat 5 status but I was truly blown away when i saw the model output this morning where several models showed irma maintaining cat 5 intensity for 5 or more days. That is insane...i don't think i've ever seen even one model show a storm maintain cat 5 for more than a day or two tops...but the 12z and 18z today there are 5 of them. Nuts. 

 

35 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Would you say the same about a seven day snow forecast?

Well unlike in winter at least we know irma isn't just a model fantasy storm. 

[LithiaWx]

2 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

What do you know that we don't know that she is even going to get close to have any effects at all.. Most models show Cuba having really no effect at all.. Your making it sound like the Strom is just gonna die and fizzle out.. no need to down play and possible dangerous situation for some folks in the u.s

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk
 

Google "Cuba terrain map"

 

this is is a very dangerous situation for FL.  I haven't downplayed anything.  History is a treasure trove of past events.  Cuba and Hispaniola are known by names like Shredniola for a reason.  Again,  even a close pass is going to disrupt this monster. JMO your mileage may vary.