packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Let's hope for a recurve! It's not looking good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 So we have anywhere from the Gulf to the East coast with the models. Either way it looks like this could be bad, and seems like folks are leaning towards an East coast hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Which model did best with Harvey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Which model did best with Harvey? Good question. I believe that it was the Euro. Also, there is a new hurricane model that did well. I'm not sure what it's called. Someone who followed it more closely can tell you. I also think that the NAM did pretty good with the precip totals. It's good to show what the max potential can be. Sometimes it does turn out as much as the NAM predicts, just not with the SE winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, frazdaddy said: I will still be on Emerald Isle. enjoy your Cat 4 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Not going to say that's crazy. Something about the first two weeks of September and big hurricanes for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: enjoy your Cat 4 .... Aren't cat 4 hurricanes pretty rare once you get that far north? Storms on that trajectory typically are already transitioning to extra tropical? I've seen lots of 3s but a 4 striking there seems a bit of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: So we have anywhere from the Gulf to the East coast with the models. Either way it looks like this could be bad, and seems like folks are leaning towards an East coast hit. These things are always a threat until they aren't. All it takes is a break in the ridge and it's OTS. Or the ridge builds in and it hits texas. This is just another case if wait and see where it is in 10 days and how the pattern has evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hazel is the only cat4 for NC I think. We seem to be having an uptick in "rare" events of late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Aren't cat 4 hurricanes pretty rare once you get that far north? Storms on that trajectory typically are already transitioning to extra tropical? I've seen lots of 3s but a 4 striking there seems a bit of a stretch. Yes, they tend to start ingesting dry continental air by the time they close in on the southeast coast. Hugo and Hazel were 2 exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 30 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Hazel is the only cat4 for NC I think. We seem to be having an uptick in "rare" events of late though. Not really, hurricane season have been mostly duds for 8 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 hours ago, frazdaddy said: I will still be on Emerald Isle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 52 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Aren't cat 4 hurricanes pretty rare once you get that far north? Storms on that trajectory typically are already transitioning to extra tropical? I've seen lots of 3s but a 4 striking there seems a bit of a stretch. Not to worry. Frazz and I have both promised our wives that we would leave for anything above a cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Boy, I hope a recurve. Am I right that over the last 24 hours the trend is to keep the North Atlantic ridge stronger? Way out there in fantasy land but I dont' like the trend. Everything and everybody is focused on the Harvey disaster. The US does not need another major. Would FEMA have the resources? Would the country be as charitable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Forceasted to be a cat 4 next week. Here we go again. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311451 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range. The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Not really, hurricane season have been mostly duds for 8 years now. Sandy and Harvey come to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Forceasted to be a cat 4 next week. Here we go again. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311451 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range. The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble models. Wow, she went straight to Cat 2 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I dont say this to sound like a prepper or anything, but prudence based on very recent history should tell us all to examine our situation more carefully and stairstep our way into readiness over the next 7 days. For example, I dont have to worry about flooding at my house or really in my immediate area. But wind and tree damage would likely have the power out for an extended period similar to Hugo. I should prep for that, increasing my rations and stores each day as the threat materializes. Folks on the coast should already have a plan. Book hotel rooms NOW and cancel them later. Once we get within 3-4 days out if this track holds for the east coast then SHTF anyway. This site has proved invaluable to thousands of folks over countless storms. I dont expect many that frequent here to be caught off guard. But we can all do more to be prepared for Irma, the next storm or even the major blizzard we will see this winter! Start talking to your family, friends and neighbors and rachet up the intensity as needed based on models. We simply cannot afford to have another Harvey right now where hundreds of thousands of folks had little warning and no plan of action. Sorry for the rant but I am increasingly frustrated when I see so many folks have resources at their fingertips and fail to responsibly protect themselves. Now, off to Walmart to buy shelf stable goods, water and batteries.....all usable for any storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Jesus, what a buzzsaw CV storm. Satellite porn otw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with. And warmer water compared to where it's already been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Boy, I hope a recurve. Am I right that over the last 24 hours the trend is to keep the North Atlantic ridge stronger? Way out there in fantasy land but I dont' like the trend. Everything and everybody is focused on the Harvey disaster. The US does not need another major. Would FEMA have the resources? Would the country be as charitable? Not to mention, put this in the gulf, or hit Florida, gas prices go to 4$ a gallon! Bet on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Someone on the tropics forum said HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Someone on the tropics forum said HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5. GFS yesterday showed it getting down to 896 millibars this morning I think I saw was 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5. Only TWO storms on record have achieved category 5 intensity east of 55W: Hugo and Isabel Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: Aren't cat 4 hurricanes pretty rare once you get that far north? Storms on that trajectory typically are already transitioning to extra tropical? I've seen lots of 3s but a 4 striking there seems a bit of a stretch. Well yeah technically there has been only one recorded Cat 4 to hit NC.........Hurricane Diana almost came in as a 135 mph Cat 4 in 84....but that doesnt mean that Irma couldnt be a Cat 4 and make landfall in NC either. Diana was a small nasty little cane, luckily the wind field was fairly small so the real beastly stuff stayed offshore, Oak Island south of Wilmington had a sustained wind of 115 MPH at the Coast Guard station....if she had not stalled and hooked right Emerald Isle and the south beaches would have took a Cat 4. This is the first hurricane I can remember, they canceled school for the day cause she was suppose to come on in right over eastern NC....I was 12 at the time and all we got was a lot of rain and winds gusting to maybe 40-50 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not to mention, put this in the gulf, or hit Florida, gas prices go to 4$ a gallon! Bet on that! Add the fact that as of this morning we have this complication. The Colonial Pipeline, which carries huge amounts of gasoline and other fuel between Houston and the East Coast, is shutting down after Harvey forced the closure of refineries and some of the pipeline's own facilities. The pipeline has two main lines that together transport more than 100 million gallons of gasoline, heating oil and aviation fuel as far as the New York harbor each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Gfs doesnt seem to be moving much so far. People in eastern NC are still recovering from matthew last year. The impacts of that storm were not predicted well for the inland areas. I saw a number of posts on WRAL and the Weather channel yesterday saying that Irma would go harmlessly out to sea, that have now been taken down. I just dont understand why anybody would ever say that. I get that a major hurricane just hit and you dont want to panic people, but thats irresponsible to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snovary said: Gfs doesnt seem to be moving much so far. People in eastern NC are still recovering from matthew last year. The impacts of that storm were not predicted well for the inland areas. I saw a number of posts on WRAL and the Weather channel yesterday saying that Irma would go harmlessly out to sea, that have now been taken down. I just dont understand why anybody would ever say that. I get that a major hurricane just hit and you dont want to panic people, but thats irresponsible to say the least. One thing to note...the low of Ireland is now gone on the latest GFS which allows the Mid-Atlantic ridge to really sprawl and grow in size. Might be what nudges Irma into the Caribbean or right over the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Can someone change the title to Hurricane Irma? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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