Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 this is an awful run in terms of potential damage. Destroys south/southeast florida then rakes the entire coast before making landfall near savannah. A track that maybe could produce the most widespread damage as it never interacts with land enough to weaken a lot. Looks like it's a bit further west than the 06z run after landfall thanks in part to it not being as amplified with the trough in the great lakes/plains and it turns nnw up the savannah river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, lj0109 said: At 156 landfall just SW of SAV. moving NW. 162 Center of Circulation nearing Augusta Yep....devastating....156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Mercy (NOTE: WIND @850 not SFC): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wow Hurrcaine force winds make it to Charlotte and almost to Atlanta as well. The entire state of SC is getting hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Wow Hurrcaine force winds make it to Charlotte and almost to Atlanta as well. The entire state of SC is getting hurricane force winds. Those winds are at the 850 level don't think they make it all the way to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Wow Hurrcaine force winds make it to Charlotte and almost to Atlanta as well. The entire state of SC is getting hurricane force winds. I don't believe those winds extend down to ground level. This is at 850hPa height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, yotaman said: Got a question concerning pressure. Irma now has 180 mph winds with a pressure of 927mb, why is the pressure so high? Wilma to compare had winds of 185 mph with a pressure of 882. Gilbert also had 185 mph winds with a pressure of 888 mb. Sam Lillo has an awesome chart showing the pressure/wind variance with storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Those winds are at the 850 level don't think they make it all the way to the ground. Correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Got a question concerning pressure. Irma now has 180 mph winds with a pressure of 927mb, why is the pressure so high? Wilma to compare had winds of 185 mph with a pressure of 882. Gilbert also had 185 mph winds with a pressure of 888 mb. Irma is relatively small and therfore while winds are distributed over a smaller area, the winds are also stronger. Think of this. If you have ever been between two buildings during a windy day and suddenly the wind speed dramatically increases, you understand the concept. The thing about wind is that it is the difference between pressures and the atmospheres way of equaling them out. When wind is felt, it's air molecules moving from higher pressure areas to lower pressure areas. If the trip is smaller, all the energy is focused into a smaller area (like between the buildings) and therefore the winds are higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: I don't believe those winds extend down to ground level. This is at 850hPa height. 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Those winds are at the 850 level don't think they make it all the way to the ground. Ooops my mistake. Didn't realize it was the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bunny Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Hello everyone, hope I am welcome here. If not, please let me know and I'll go. We are stationed in Tampa. Very worried what Irma will do. Husband on standby to head overseas due to hurricane, leaving me and dog alone. Im hoping someone can give me some ballpark info. I'm in contact with my neighbors and we are all waiting for info from military, which never seems to come. All questions seem to be met with a shrug of the shoulders. Thank you for any info you can provide. It will really be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Obviously a horrible run, but the good-ish news is that the average 120hr forecast is 200 miles of track error. The really good news is that people have plenty of time to prepare and, if necessary, get out of the way. On another note, Recon just found SFMR estimated surface wind speed of 160kt and pressure down to 923. Earlier it looked like the cloud tops were warming, but they now look to be cooling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS with trough not as quick to move out and actually digs further SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, griteater said: On the early crude maps for the UKMet, it continues to take it into Cuba, then brings it north to near Miami at 144 Yeah, tracks right over central Cuba but does look like it would come up eastern side of FL. Much slower then GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: GFS with trough not as quick to move out and actually digs further SW yeah I was honestly expecting more north and east cause of that but it didnt happen, wonder if the GEFS are gonne be east with the mean again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: yeah I was honestly expecting more north and east cause of that but it didnt happen, wonder if the GEFS are gonne be east with the mean again... Yep, I thought it would have been east of 6z but still modeling a stout 591 ridge over Bermuda. That NE ull digging a little further SW just shoves ridge a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, Bunny said: Hello everyone, hope I am welcome here. If not, please let me know and I'll go. We are stationed in Tampa. Very worried what Irma will do. Husband on standby to head overseas due to hurricane, leaving me and dog alone. Im hoping someone can give me some ballpark info. I'm in contact with my neighbors and we are all waiting for info from military, which never seems to come. All questions seem to be met with a shrug of the shoulders. Thank you for any info you can provide. It will really be helpful You're certainly welcome here but not sure how much help we can be. Things can change quickly as to track of the storm and strength in a given area. Your best bet is to go to the internet sites for Tampa and look up emergency services and preparedness. There are zoned surge maps. Look and see what zone your location is in and follow the advice given. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z GEFS change has a few more members over Cuba but as like 6z GEFS has majority of members making landfall somewhere in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, lj0109 said: Mercy: What do the numbers on the right represent? Wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z GEFS mean has it making landfall in Cuba. Maybe it will weaken it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: 12z GEFS mean has it making landfall in Cuba. Maybe it will weaken it???? Yep, about the only hope for FL right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, FLO said: What do the numbers on the right represent? Wind? Yes but at the 850 Hpa level those winds are not at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Per Allan on Twitter just now: "The most prominent cluster of GEFS tracks shows a landfall across SFL, re-emergence around PT. ST Lucie, landfall on southern SC coast #Irma" and he says it's making a slight northern movement at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GEFS is a bit further east with a Hugo like concentration from the SC coast to Cola to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Was hoping to see a better trend today but so far, that hasn't happened yet. The moves east, even slightly, are not good to see. It appears the storm has started moving N or W now which is believe is earlier then expected. Lot of time to go so we just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 16.9°N 59.1°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 In terms of intensity, it seems to be trending towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The euro has her at 40MB weaker than she actually is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The euro has her at 40MB weaker than she actually is right now. Is that an initialization error, or is something else going on? At 96, Euro has Irma in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Also, the NAVGEM once had Irma headed to the gulf but now seemingly totally misses FLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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