Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: 6z GEFS looks to be roughly in the center of EPS cone...if you are in Florida not sure what you do. One thing about the EPS for the tracks east of FL.... tracks are either re-curving off coastal NC or they are hooking back in over GA/SC. Still a miss wide right on the table. That's yesterday's 6z.. it's moved east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, Wow said: That's yesterday's 6z.. it's moved east pretty telling how the 06z gfs and it's ensembles shifted east while the euro/eps shifted west/had a lot of members a lot more west. The 06z gfs/ensemble shift was quite a bit in fact...Just goes to show you how much is still up in the air and why as others have pointed out, it's extremely foolish to write anywhere off right now. Yesterday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12Z track guidance. Noticeable shift east in the longer range compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: 12Z track guidance. Not surprising based on the shift of the 06z gfs. But some of those tracks really are scary...where it devastates southeast florida/large section of the east coast but there is so little land interaction there wouldn't be a lot of weakening and/or an ability to quickly restrengthened before the 2nd landfall in ga/sc. Some are close to worst case scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, downeastnc said: That will effectively relocate your house.....the crappiest part is there is ZERO chance the models will nail that turn this far out, hell we wont be sure exactly were until it actually turns....the turn just happens to be modeled to be in a area where 100 miles one way or the other has HUGE ramifications for literally millions of people. Best thing that happens now is the models have the ridging to strong and she never gets that far west and ends up east OTS otherwise someone is probably getting a Cat 5. Need this thing to start gaining some Lat fast otherwise the NE islands are toast. I know right?! I expected a shift to the east today but with all of the small changes past day 3 the difference of 50 miles is HUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I know right?! I expected a shift to the east today but with all of the small changes past day 3 the difference of 50 miles is HUGE It would be nice to be out of the woods, it going to be a long long long week....I am only 100 miles west of Hatteras so its gonna take several east jumps to put me back in the worst of it, however the last run before the models jumped to Florida was for MBY. Hoping it doesnt get back to something like that....if it does correct east it should start doing it in earnest soon I would hope by the time its approaching the Bahamas the 48 hr agreement would be tight enough we know who gets it ( or who gets it first ugh) but somehow I doubt Irma is gonna let us off that easy......not cool Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z runs are going to be big today in terms of: is there now a trend eastward (..after a day or so of westward trending). All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO The thing is, it's not big shifts. A minor shift could still produce a very different scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 man those 12z plots are alarming. where/how do you evac the coast if you have a major hurricane coming due north towards the coast like that? esp. with the size Irma will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO Hmmm how soon people forget.... 8 am Sat forecasted track 8 am Sunday exactly 24 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just an on, she's getting a little raggedy looking atm, ERC? Also saw on TWC, over the Midwest and Ohio valley, they are releasing weather balloons every 6 hours to figure out this trough! Looked like about 20 -30 stations doing this. Regularly, it's every 12 I believe!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Correct. Yesterday a critical weather day was declared, thus the increase in balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just an on, she's getting a little raggedy looking atm, ERC? Also saw on TWC, over the Midwest and Ohio valley, they are releasing weather balloons every 6 hours to figure out this trough! Looked like about 20 -30 stations doing this. Regularly, it's every 12 I believe!? Every 6 hours I believe is what they said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recurving east coast hurricanes are always difficult to forecast for the same reasons: pinpointing the precise timing and location of a change in direction 4-5 days out is nearly impossible. Add to that the proximity of land, the contour of the east coast, and a category 5 hurricane, and you have an extremely difficult forecast. By and large the models do a great job of signaling the timing of the expected turn. But as others have pointed out--the slightest difference east or west has enormous impacts downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This is terrible. No matter where Irma goes it's going to be a catastrophe. So awful to have Harvey and Irma back to back like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Model error chart for IRMA. Euro (ECMF) has been best at days 3-5, with UKMET (UKM) second best. Not so good for GFS (AVNO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Should start seeing that northwest turn soon....if we dont the islands are gonna get smashed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Solak said: 8:00 advisory=== CAT 5 7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 929 mb Max sustained: 175 mph 929 is extremely powerful. And if this eye stays over water, Oh My. Remember in the 60's, Hurricane Donna. Took a path similar to this projected path. He FL and still made it to the NC coast as a CAT 3. East Coast and Golf Coast, be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Center on radar now....should be able to track it a bit better with this as far as which islands get hammered... http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Navgem showing a jump north run to run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z NAM coming in. At hour 45 it is south of its 6z location. Looks to by heading towards the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snovary said: Navgem showing a jump north run to run.... And with the ever-present FWIW qualifier, the NAM looks a bit south through 51. Point being, who knows at this point -- and it's a bit scary how such small changes can have such a huge impact. *edited for hour number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snovary said: Navgem showing a jump north run to run.... 12z NAMs south jump seems to be close to the Navgem north jump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm so hoping for an OTS solution to verify. Still think we a shot, however slight. Sister lives in West Palm. I want nothing to do with this thing. I have always told her I would come down and chase, but not this one. Forget that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Whats funny about the NAM is the center is maybe 40-50 miles SW of its last run and the trough is basically in the same exact place...these shifts are all just noise the models struggle to be that precise and correct 12-24 hrs out in this type of setup much less 2-5 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 40-50 miles is within the typical model noise range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Pretty incredible. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: I'm so hoping for an OTS solution to verify. Still think we a shot, however slight. Sister lives in West Palm. I want nothing to do with this thing. I have always told her I would come down and chase, but not this one. Forget that! Family in N Palm, want them to leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Seem as if the storm is starting to gain latitude Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Pretty incredible. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Pretty incredible to say the least...and there is a decent chance it could go higher over the next several days. Hard to believe we are having two back to back record smashing and history making hurricanes. Like with harvey, it's hard not watch this constantly all day because i know i'm watching something special...albeit terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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